Global Avocado Market: Increasingly Popular Trend Of Healthy Eating Promote The Market Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report "World - Avocados - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights". Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Avocado Consumption Is Growing Globally

The avocado is a very nutritious product that is rich with calories, vitamins, and minerals. Its popularity is growing with the help of the media and the spread of vegan and vegetarian eating habits. Its consumption is increasing worldwide but has been particularly active in the USA and South America, where avocados are a traditional and essential part of the local diet.

Global avocado consumption totaled 6.3M tonnes in 2017, increasing by 8% against the previous year. In general, the total consumption figure indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2017: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the last decade. Based on 2017 figures, avocado consumption increased by +82.6% against 2008 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2009, when it surged by 15% y-o-y, as the global economy was settling down after the 2008 crisis. In 2014, consumption growth increased by 5.7 percentage points, mostly as a result of the stabilization in prices following the 2013 price rise. Global avocado consumption peaked in 2017, and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Global avocado market revenue amounted to $18B in 2017 (IndexBox estimates), a rise of 34% against the previous year. Overall, avocado consumption continues to indicate a remarkable expansion. Mexico and the Dominican Republic have seen consumption increase steadily since the end of 2015. The growth met soaring prices since 2015 due to shortages in supply both in Mexico and the USA, which resulted in rocketing market revenues, by 23.5%, and 34% in 2016 and 2017, respectively. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

Mexico and the USA  Are The Leaders Of Avocado Consumption

The countries with the highest volumes of avocado consumption in 2017 were Mexico (1.1M tonnes), the U.S. (1M tonnes), and the Dominican Republic (671K tonnes), together accounting for 45% of global consumption. Mexico and the USA share even proportions of the global market and therefore largely determine the direction of market fluctuations. While Mexico has traditionally had a developed habit of avocado consumption, the US has been experiencing some phenomenal growth in per capita consumption over the past 20 years. Since 1996 the per head consumption has quadrupled, and it keeps rising. Despite the 2016 slowdown, the market has been demonstrating a strong growth of +7% per year, on average, since 2007. Such a strong dynamic can mostly be attributed to the media hype concerning this product and the fact that it is often prescribed for people with digestion problems.

Indonesia, Colombia, Peru, Brazil, China, Rwanda, Kenya, France and Canada, which together accounted for a further 28%, accounted for a smaller share of global consumption.

From 2007 to 2017, the most notable rate of growth in terms of avocado consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Dominican Republic (+15.1% per year). The Dominicans consume around 90% of the locally produced avocado crop, and the growing population, together with the currently stabilizing economic environment,  have supported local market growth.

The volume of Chinese (+5.2%) avocado consumption has been expanding too, and is expected to assume a considerably larger share in the medium-to-long term.

Avocado Consumption Is Expected To Accelerate  

Driven by increasing demand for avocado worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. In the short term, the pattern would be driven mostly by increases in population and the disposable income of the middle and upper class in the top consuming countries – the USA, Mexico, and others. Avocados are indeed price elastic if compared to other goods, which might give rise to threats over the future implications of currently growing retail prices. However, this is potentially rather a short-lived phenomenon, as new suppliers, such as Peru (+15.8%) and the Dominican Republic (+14.1%), are currently expanding at double-digit rates and are actively sourcing unsaturated export markets. Therefore, the current surging demand is expected to be met by supplies originating mainly from South American countries including Mexico – the largest producer.

The increasingly widespread trend of healthy eating in developing countries would, nonetheless, determine the medium and long-term prospects of the product. In China, consumption volumes are growing at a fast and stable pace, and this market is unsaturated, which implies a substantial export capacity in this region. Moreover, local Chinese warehouses are not in line with international standards, which is why the quality of imported vegetables with a poor shelf life – it is two weeks for avocados – is not the most tempting for a consumer. As soon as this problem is resolved efficiently, the attractiveness of avocados as a product for the Chinese middle class, which is expanding and getting richer, would be enhanced. 

The relative economic stabilization in South American countries, such as Peru and the Dominican Republic, is also expected to exert a positive effect in terms of market expansion. Therefore, market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +6.0% for the period from 2017 to 2025, which is projected to bring the market volume to 10.1M tonnes by the end of 2025.