Global Rice Market: Anticipated CAGR of +1.2% Expected to Drive Market Growth Over the Next Seven Years

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Driven by rising demand for rice globally, the market is expected to experience growth in volume and value over the next seven years. With a projected CAGR of +1.2% in volume and +3.5% in value from 2023 to 2030, the market is forecasted to reach 851M tons and $467.1B by the end of 2030.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for rice worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 851M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $467.1B (in in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rice

In 2023, approx. 781M tons of rice were consumed worldwide; approximately equating the previous year's figure. In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the consumption volume increased by 2.2% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 784M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global rice market value reached $366.2B in 2023, increasing by 1.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the market value increased by 4.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $406.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were China (212M tons), India (177M tons) and Bangladesh (59M tons), together comprising 57% of global consumption.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +1.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rice markets worldwide were China ($99B), Bangladesh ($65.6B) and the Philippines ($29.7B), together accounting for 53% of the global market. Vietnam, Thailand, India, Myanmar and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 16%.

India, with a CAGR of +5.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of rice per capita consumption in 2023 were Myanmar (440 kg per person), Vietnam (383 kg per person) and Thailand (355 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +0.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Rice

In 2023, global rice production stood at 783M tons, flattening at the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 2.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 789M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, rice production amounted to $347.9B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, showed a mild contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 5.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $415.5B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2023, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were China (211M tons), India (195M tons) and Bangladesh (57M tons), together comprising 59% of global production. Indonesia, Vietnam, Thailand, Myanmar, the Philippines, Pakistan and Cambodia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Cambodia (with a CAGR of +2.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2023, the global average rice yield stood at 4.7 tons per ha, remaining stable against the previous year. Overall, the yield recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the yield increased by 1.9% against the previous year. The global yield peaked at 4.7 tons per ha in 2021; afterwards, it flattened through to 2023.

Harvested Area

In 2023, approx. 166M ha of rice were harvested worldwide; flattening at the year before. In general, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 2.6%. The global harvested area peaked at 166M ha in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Rice

In 2023, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in purchases abroad of rice, when their volume decreased by -5.1% to 50M tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 53M tons in 2022, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, rice imports stood at $30.4B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2013 to 2023; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 16%. Global imports peaked in 2023 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2023, China (2.6M tons), Cote d'Ivoire (2M tons), Bangladesh (1.8M tons), Iraq (1.7M tons), Senegal (1.6M tons), Benin (1.5M tons), the Philippines (1.4M tons), Malaysia (1.4M tons), the United States (1.3M tons), South Africa (1.2M tons), Iran (1.1M tons) and Vietnam (1M tons) represented the largest importer of rice in the world, making up 37% of total import. Brazil (1M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Vietnam (with a CAGR of +34.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rice importing markets worldwide were the Philippines ($1.6B), China ($1.4B) and the United States ($1.3B), with a combined 14% share of global imports. Iran, Iraq, Malaysia, Cote d'Ivoire, Bangladesh, Benin, Vietnam, South Africa, Brazil and Senegal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

Vietnam, with a CAGR of +30.0%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice was the largest type of rice in the world, with the volume of imports finishing at 36M tons, which was approx. 73% of total imports in 2023. Broken rice (6.8M tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by paddy rice (3.5M tons) and husked (brown) rice (3M tons). All these products together held near 27% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice imports of stood at +2.5%. At the same time, paddy rice (+2.8%), broken rice (+1.8%) and husked (brown) rice (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, paddy rice emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +2.8% from 2013-2023. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($23.6B) constitutes the largest type of rice imported worldwide, comprising 78% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by broken rice ($2.7B), with an 8.9% share of global imports. It was followed by husked (brown) rice, with a 7.6% share.

From 2013 to 2023, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice imports amounted to +2.0%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: broken rice (+0.5% per year) and husked (brown) rice (+1.9% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2023, the average rice import price amounted to $606 per ton, growing by 6.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average import price increased by 7.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $618 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($763 per ton), while the price for broken rice ($395 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by paddy rice (+0.9%), while the other products experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

The average rice import price stood at $606 per ton in 2023, increasing by 6.9% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the average import price increased by 7.5%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $618 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Philippines ($1,143 per ton), while Senegal ($333 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Philippines (+10.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Rice

In 2023, shipments abroad of rice decreased by -10.3% to 53M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure at 59M tons in 2022, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, rice exports rose modestly to $31.9B in 2023. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2023 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

India was the main exporter of rice in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 19M tons, which was approx. 35% of total exports in 2023. Thailand (8.8M tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by Vietnam (6.1M tons), Pakistan (3.1M tons) and the United States (2.7M tons). All these countries together held near 39% share of total exports. The following exporters - China (1.6M tons), Myanmar (1.6M tons), Brazil (1.5M tons), Cambodia (1.3M tons), Uruguay (1M tons) and Paraguay (0.9M tons) - together made up 15% of total exports.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to rice exports from India stood at +5.0%. At the same time, Cambodia (+14.0%), China (+12.3%), Myanmar (+9.8%), Paraguay (+8.7%), Brazil (+4.7%) and Thailand (+2.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Cambodia emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +14.0% from 2013-2023. Uruguay and Vietnam experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Pakistan (-2.0%) and the United States (-3.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. India (+7.9 p.p.), China (+1.9 p.p.), Cambodia (+1.6 p.p.) and Myanmar (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Pakistan, the United States and Vietnam saw its share reduced by -3.3%, -3.9% and -4.2% from 2013 to 2023, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($10.7B) remains the largest rice supplier worldwide, comprising 33% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Thailand ($5.2B), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 9.7% share.

In India, rice exports expanded at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Thailand (+1.6% per year) and Vietnam (+0.6% per year).

Exports By Type

Semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice represented the main exported product with an export of about 41M tons, which accounted for 79% of total exports. It was distantly followed by broken rice (5.7M tons) and paddy rice (3.6M tons), together creating an 18% share of total exports. Husked (brown) rice (2M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2013 to 2023, average annual rates of growth with regard to semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice exports of stood at +2.4%. At the same time, paddy rice (+3.6%) and broken rice (+3.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, paddy rice emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +3.6% from 2013-2023. Husked (brown) rice experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. The shares of the largest types remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice ($26.3B) remains the largest type of rice supplied worldwide, comprising 82% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by broken rice ($2.4B), with a 7.6% share of global exports. It was followed by paddy rice, with a 5.3% share.

For semi-milled or wholly milled (bleached) rice, exports expanded at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2013-2023. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: broken rice (+3.9% per year) and paddy rice (+4.6% per year).

Export Prices By Type

The average rice export price stood at $607 per ton in 2023, picking up by 16% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $625 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was husked (brown) rice ($796 per ton), while the average price for exports of broken rice ($424 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by brown rice (+1.5%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average rice export price stood at $607 per ton in 2023, growing by 16% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $625 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2023, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($747 per ton), while Brazil ($427 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+2.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform