Sour Cherry Market

The global sour cherry market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted increase in market volume and value. In 2022, the highest consuming countries were Russia, Ukraine, and Poland, while the United States saw the highest growth rate in consumption. Production and yield of sour cherries also showed positive trends from 2012 to 2022, with Russia, Poland, and Ukraine leading in production volumes. Germany, Russia, and Egypt were the top importing countries, while Hungary and Serbia were major exporters. The analysis includes data on harvest area, import/export prices, and growth rates for various countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sour cherries worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.8M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $3.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Sour Cherries

In 2022, approx. 1.6M tons of sour cherries were consumed worldwide; increasing by 4% on 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 1.6M tons; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

The global sour cherry market revenue contracted slightly to $2.6B in 2022, which is down by -4.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $2.8B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Russia (303K tons), Ukraine (181K tons) and Poland (180K tons), together comprising 41% of global consumption. Turkey, Serbia, Iran, the United States and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +10.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sour cherry markets worldwide were Russia ($732M), the United States ($533M) and Iran ($173M), with a combined 56% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +11.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of sour cherry per capita consumption was registered in Serbia (23 kg per person), followed by Poland (4.8 kg per person), Ukraine (4.1 kg per person) and Uzbekistan (2.3 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of sour cherry was estimated at 0.2 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the sour cherry per capita consumption in Serbia totaled +5.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Poland (+0.8% per year) and Ukraine (+0.9% per year).

Production

World Production of Sour Cherries

Global sour cherry production reached 1.6M tons in 2022, picking up by 4% on 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by pronounced growth of the harvested area and a slight expansion in yield figures.

In value terms, sour cherry production shrank remarkably to $2.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, the total production indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +24.3% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 59% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $3B. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Russia (297K tons), Poland (184K tons) and Ukraine (180K tons), with a combined 41% share of global production. Turkey, Serbia, Iran, the United States and Uzbekistan lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 41%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +11.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of sour cherries rose to 7.2 tons per ha, growing by 3.3% compared with the previous year. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 16%. The global yield peaked at 7.2 tons per ha in 2018; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of sour cherries production worldwide was estimated at 223K ha, flattening at the year before. In general, the harvested area showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the harvested area increased by 4.9% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 224K ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Sour Cherries

In 2022, approx. 46K tons of sour cherries were imported worldwide; reducing by -19.4% compared with the year before. In general, imports continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 49%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 84K tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry imports shrank significantly to $67M in 2022. Overall, imports recorded a pronounced descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 15%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $111M. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of global imports failed to regain momentum.

Imports By Country

Germany was the key importing country with an import of about 14K tons, which recorded 31% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Russia (5.9K tons), Bosnia and Herzegovina (3.6K tons), Egypt (2.5K tons), Romania (2.4K tons) and Austria (2.1K tons), together generating a 36% share of total imports. The Netherlands (2K tons), Bulgaria (0.9K tons), Slovenia (0.9K tons) and Palestine (0.8K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to sour cherry imports into Germany stood at -2.9%. At the same time, Egypt (+68.9%), Slovenia (+44.9%), Bosnia and Herzegovina (+24.5%), Bulgaria (+20.8%), Palestine (+20.4%), Romania (+18.1%), the Netherlands (+17.0%) and Austria (+2.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Egypt emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +68.9% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Russia (-5.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Bosnia and Herzegovina (+7.2 p.p.), Egypt (+5.5 p.p.), Romania (+4.3 p.p.), the Netherlands (+3.6 p.p.), Slovenia (+1.9 p.p.), Bulgaria (+1.7 p.p.) and Palestine (+1.5 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of Russia (-8 p.p.) and Germany (-8.1 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($13M), Russia ($7.2M) and Egypt ($2.9M) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 34% share of global imports.

Egypt, with a CAGR of +43.3%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average sour cherry import price stood at $1,474 per ton in 2022, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, showed a noticeable setback. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the average import price increased by 26%. Global import price peaked at $1,978 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Palestine ($1,545 per ton), while Bulgaria ($385 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Palestine (+8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Sour Cherries

In 2022, the amount of sour cherries exported worldwide fell dramatically to 50K tons, reducing by -16.4% against 2021 figures. Overall, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 29%. The global exports peaked at 74K tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, sour cherry exports shrank markedly to $71M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports recorded a noticeable shrinkage. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 35%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $133M. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Hungary (10K tons) and Serbia (9.6K tons) were the major exporters of sour cherries in 2022, finishing at approx. 21% and 19% of total exports, respectively. Poland (4.4K tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Iran (4.2K tons) and the Czech Republic (2.5K tons). All these countries together held approx. 22% share of total exports. Moldova (2.2K tons), Syrian Arab Republic (2.1K tons), Lebanon (1.8K tons), Croatia (1.6K tons), Italy (1.4K tons), Spain (1.2K tons), the United States (1.2K tons) and Bulgaria (1.1K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Iran (with a CAGR of +45.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Hungary ($8.8M), Serbia ($8.7M) and the United States ($8.5M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 37% of global exports. Iran, Spain, Italy, Poland, Syrian Arab Republic, Moldova, the Czech Republic, Lebanon, Croatia and Bulgaria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Iran, with a CAGR of +35.7%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average sour cherry export price stood at $1,410 per ton in 2022, reducing by -9.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price showed a pronounced decrease. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 an increase of 37%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum at $1,821 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($6,934 per ton), while Croatia ($605 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Croatia (+8.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform