Other Cereals Market

The global other cereals market is projected to experience steady growth in both consumption and value over the next eight years. By 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 30M tons with a value of $25.6B. Consumption has seen fluctuations in recent years but is generally on a flat trend. Production and exports have shown prominent growth over the years, with Poland leading in both categories. Imports have also seen a consistent increase. Countries like Ethiopia, Poland, and Germany are major players in both consumption and production of other cereals worldwide.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for other cerealses worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $25.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Quinoa, Fonio, Triticale and other Cereals

In 2022, consumption of other cerealses decreased by -2.1% to 26M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 28M tons. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global other cereals market revenue rose to $18.7B in 2022, picking up by 3.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a modest increase. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $19.5B. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Ethiopia (6.4M tons), Poland (6.2M tons) and Germany (2.2M tons), together accounting for 58% of global consumption. France, Belarus, Spain, Chad, Guinea and China lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 22%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +11.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Ethiopia ($7.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Poland ($1.5B). It was followed by Germany.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Ethiopia stood at +2.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Poland (-2.3% per year) and Germany (-2.0% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of other cereals per capita consumption in 2022 were Poland (164 kg per person), Belarus (130 kg per person) and Ethiopia (53 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Spain (with a CAGR of +11.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Quinoa, Fonio, Triticale and other Cereals

In 2022, production of other cerealses decreased by -2.3% to 26M tons, falling for the second year in a row after two years of growth. Overall, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 11%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 28M tons. From 2015 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, other cereals production amounted to $19.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the production volume increased by 27%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level at $20.2B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Poland (6.8M tons), Ethiopia (6.4M tons) and France (2.3M tons), with a combined 60% share of global production. Germany, Belarus, Spain, Chad, Guinea and China lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 21%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +10.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average other cereals yield dropped to 2.6 tons per ha in 2022, approximately mirroring 2021 figures. Overall, the yield, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 7.9%. The global yield peaked at 2.7 tons per ha in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2022, approx. 10M ha of other cerealses were harvested worldwide; waning by -1.9% compared with the year before. Overall, the harvested area showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 3.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to other cereals production reached the peak figure at 11M ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Quinoa, Fonio, Triticale and other Cereals

In 2022, approx. 1.1M tons of other cerealses were imported worldwide; waning by -4.1% on the previous year's figure. Overall, total imports indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -23.5% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 90% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 1.5M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, other cereals imports totaled $695M in 2022. Over the period under review, total imports indicated strong growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports decreased by -7.7% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when imports increased by 43% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $798M. From 2015 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Germany (356K tons), distantly followed by Spain (224K tons), the Netherlands (145K tons) and Italy (103K tons) represented the main importers of other cerealses, together constituting 73% of total imports. The United States (40K tons), Denmark (23K tons), Greece (23K tons), Belgium (23K tons), France (23K tons) and Austria (21K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Greece (with a CAGR of +21.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest other cereals importing markets worldwide were Germany ($139M), the United States ($83M) and Spain ($79M), with a combined 43% share of global imports. The Netherlands, Italy, France, Belgium, Austria, Denmark and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Among the main importing countries, Greece, with a CAGR of +27.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average other cereals import price amounted to $615 per ton, rising by 13% against the previous year. Overall, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average import price increased by 14%. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum at $739 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($2,046 per ton), while Spain ($353 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Greece (+4.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Quinoa, Fonio, Triticale and other Cereals

In 2022, overseas shipments of other cerealses decreased by -5.7% to 1.4M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed prominent growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 83% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 2M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, other cereals exports expanded slightly to $754M in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports decreased by -5.8% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when exports increased by 51%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum at $870M in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

Poland was the major exporter of other cerealses in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 628K tons, which was near 44% of total exports in 2022. France (233K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 16% share, followed by Germany (9.1%). The following exporters - Sweden (57K tons), Peru (47K tons), Lithuania (44K tons), Belgium (34K tons), the Czech Republic (28K tons), the Netherlands (23K tons) and Bolivia (22K tons) - together made up 18% of total exports.

Poland was also the fastest-growing in terms of the other cerealses exports, with a CAGR of +21.6% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Sweden (+20.0%), Belgium (+16.3%), Peru (+14.3%), the Netherlands (+12.7%) and France (+6.9%) displayed positive paces of growth. Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Czech Republic (-1.2%), Bolivia (-1.7%) and Lithuania (-9.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Poland (+32 p.p.), Sweden (+2.7 p.p.) and Peru (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Bolivia, the Czech Republic, Germany and Lithuania saw its share reduced by -2%, -2.2%, -7.6% and -13% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Poland ($216M) remains the largest other cereals supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Peru ($92M), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by France, with an 11% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Poland amounted to +23.7%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Peru (+9.9% per year) and France (+7.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average other cereals export price amounted to $526 per ton, increasing by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, continues to indicate a mild contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $736 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Bolivia ($2,082 per ton), while the Czech Republic ($296 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+1.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform