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US Wheat Starch Import Price Rises 33% in April 2022

In Apr 2022, the US wheat starch import price amounted to $744 per tonne, rising by 33% against the previous month. Over the last fifteen - month period, it increased at an average monthly rate of +37.0%.

Wheat Price Growth to Slow Down with Sufficient Global Production in 2022

In 2022, wheat price growth is forecast to slow down with sufficient global production and falling demand for feed grains in the U.S. and the EU. Global wheat output is set to remain at the 2021’s level of approx. 777M tonnes.

U.S. Wheat Prices to Fall in 2022, Global Supply to Remain Adequate

The average annual wheat price in the U.S. is forecast to drop by 2% y-o-y to $250 per tonne in 2022, falling on reduced domestic consumption coupled with stable supply worldwide. The market balance will be buoyed by production gains in Argentina and the EU that will offset decreasing output in Brazil and Paraguay.

EU Grain Prices to Drop on Lower Feed Demand, but Rising Energy Costs Impugn Forecast

By 2024, EU grain prices are expected to decrease moderately due to falling demand for livestock feed. There's a risk that if high prices for gas and a related fertilizer imbalance continue for several years, they may negate effects from the demand change. Expected increases in consumption of organic produce could also buoy the prices. By 2025, grain trade in the EU will decline by 8% to 84М tonnes due to diminished production and tough competition in global markets.

Boosting Shipments to Saudi Arabia and South Africa Push Poland’s Wheat Exports to $1B

In 2020, Poland’s wheat exports skyrocketed to $1B, reaching the highest point ever. In physical terms, exports soared from 2.1M tonnes in 2019 to 4.7M tonnes in 2020. The leading importer of wheat from Poland, Saudi Arabia, increased its purchases more than twofold last year. South Africa became the second-largest importer, unprecedently boosting shipments to 773K tonnes. The average export price for wheat from Poland jumped by +7.5% y-o-y to $223 per tonne in 2020.

Boosting Turkey's and China's Imports Keep Global Wheat Bran Trade Afloat

In 2020, total wheat bran imports stood at 6.6M tonnes or $1.1B in value terms, remaining stable against the previous year. Turkey is the largest wheat bran importer, accounting for 24% of global imports. Turkey, China, the Netherlands and Saudi Arabia increased their imports while supplies to Vietnam, Germany, Canada, South Africa and Thailand declined in 2020. China emerged as the fastest-growing importer. The average wheat bran import price rose by +4.8% y-o-y to $174 per tonne last year. Russia, Indonesia and Germany constitute key wheat bran suppliers worldwide.

Global Wheat Gluten Production Reduces Slightly but Exports Remain Robust

In 2020, global wheat gluten production reduced by -2.4% y-o-y to 1.1M tonnes. France, China and Belgium lead in world gluten manufacturing, with a combined 50%-share of its total volume. Global wheat gluten exports grew by +6% y-o-y to 928K tonnes in 2020. In value terms, world exports saw a drop, as the average wheat gluten export price decreased in the past year. Germany, Belgium and France were the largest gluten exporters in 2020. The UK and Poland recorded the highest export growth rates last year. Norway, Belgium, France and the Netherlands emerged as the countries with the highest per capita consumption figures.

Durum's Share in the European Wheat Imports Spikes

Imports of durum wheat in the EU surged by +25% y-o-y to 6.1M tonnes, reaching $1.7B in 2020. Over the last year, the share of durum supplies by volume in the total European wheat imports increased from 15.4% to 19.2%. Italy represents the largest importer of durum wheat in the EU. Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing European importer of durum wheat in 2020. The total imports of all types of wheat estimated at 32M tonnes or $7.4B in value terms.

The Bread and Bakery Market in the EU Has Recovered from the Pandemic but Runs into Growing Prices

In 2020, the total bread and bakery market in the EU countries and in the UK slightly dropped to $88.7B due to lockdowns in the HoReCa segment. In the second half of 2020, demand began to rebound quickly, and in 2021, the output of bread and baked goods reached pre-pandemic levels. In the past six months, prices for bread slightly increased due to the rising costs of grains. In the mid-term, higher prices are forecast because of accelerated inflation for commodities globally. The gradual population growth in tandem with the growing desire for organic, wholegrain and gluten-free bread, as well as bread with immunity-boosting supplements, will drive the market in the medium term.

Wheat Harvest Is Expected to Increase Globally, But Prices Continue to Rally on Inflationary Expectations

This year, harvests in the EU, the U.S., the UK, Argentina, Morocco and Ukraine are expected to increase, leading to a growth in wheat production. Even though global stockpiles of grains will remain high, there are boosted expectations for inflation due to forecasts of record demand and increased prices for other cereal grains. The rising global population and bioethanol production are key factors leading to this growth in demand for wheat. Another driving factor is the emerging trend in the EU to use more wheat in animal feed rather than barley.

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