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World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
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Article Publishing Date: Jun 15, 2021

Wheat Harvest Is Expected to Increase Globally, But Prices Continue to Rally on Inflationary Expectations

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IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

This year, harvests in the EU, the U.S., the UK, Argentina, Morocco and Ukraine are expected to increase, leading to a growth in wheat production. Even though global stockpiles of grains will remain high, there are boosted expectations for inflation due to forecasts of record demand and increased prices for other cereal grains. The rising global population and bioethanol production are key factors leading to this growth in demand for wheat. Another driving factor is the emerging trend in the EU to use more wheat in animal feed rather than barley.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2021, global wheat production is expected to rise by 13M to 932M tonnes (IndexBox estimates). Overall, crop production is expected to increase due to positive weather conditions in the EU, the U.S., the UK, Pakistan, Brazil, Egypt, China, India and Argentina. This record level of production will help keep global grain stockpiles high. In Russia, Kazakhstan, Australia and Canada, a small drop in crop production is expected. In Canada, this is a result of decreasing acres designated for wheat production and instead allocating the space for canola and barley.

In May 2021, global export prices for corn sharply increased, and wheat followed in suit. This was largely due to fears of poor weather conditions in the Northern Hemisphere. Another impact comes from the inflationary expectations that reflect the expected demand growth. In Canada, the price grew by $48 per tonne, in the US by $56 per tonne and in the EU by $43 per tonne. In Australia, the price also grew by $35 per tonne due to strong exports, while in Argentina, it grew by $27 per tonne. Russian prices grew by $34 per tonne but remained at a competitive level. World Bank expects the average wheat price (Wheat, US, HRW) to surge by 9% in 2021 to $230 per tonne and then to continue growing gradually.

Global demand for wheat in 2021 should reach a record level primarily due to increased demand in South Asia for food products containing wheat. Consumer food preferences in both India and China have shifted toward wheat products and thus driven up demand.

In the next few years, the use of wheat in animal feed is expected to expand, especially in the EU, where a high yield will enable this growth. A similar trend is expected in the U.S. and the UK, driven by growing wheat production. However, in East Asia, the use of wheat in animal feed is predicted to decrease against the rising use of corn.

In the next decade, bioethanol production should additionally cause the market for wheat to grow. Another key factor will be the increased demand for antiseptics arising from the COVID-19 pandemic. This surge in the antiseptic industry is expected to continue driving bioethanol production for at least the next few years.

Wheat Consumption by Country

The global wheat market stood at $295B in 2020, increasing by 3% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). 

China (280M tonnes) constituted the country with the largest volume of wheat consumption, accounting for 31% of total volume. Moreover, wheat consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (105M tonnes), threefold. The third position in this ranking was occupied by Russia (66M tonnes), with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2020, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +1.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.4% per year) and Russia (+14.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($123.6B) led the market alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by India ($27.7B). It was followed by Russia.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat per capita consumption in 2020 were Russia (455 kg per person), France (331 kg per person) and the UK (266 kg per person).

Wheat Imports by Country

In 2020, supplies from abroad of wheat decreased by -8.1% to 167M tonnes, falling for the second consecutive year after three years of growth. In value terms, wheat imports contracted slightly to $39.9B in 2020. 

In 2020, Egypt (9.6M tonnes), China (8.2M tonnes), Italy (8M tonnes), Indonesia (7.2M tonnes), Algeria (7M tonnes), Brazil (6.6M tonnes), the Philippines (5.7M tonnes), Japan (5.4M tonnes), Morocco (4.9M tonnes), Nigeria (4.7M tonnes), the Netherlands (4.4M tonnes) and Spain (4.1M tonnes) represented the main importer of wheat in the world, generating 45% of total import. Mexico (4M tonnes) occupied a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2020, the biggest increases were in China, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were Egypt ($2.7B), China ($2.3B) and Italy ($2B), with a combined 18% share of global imports.

China saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Product coverage:
• FCL 15 - Wheat

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global wheat market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.



Data coverage:
• Global market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Global production, split by region and country
• Global trade (exports and imports)
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

2.1
KEY FINDINGS
2.2
MARKET TRENDS
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
5.4
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.5
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
7.3
HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2020
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2020
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

United States
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Brazil
Italy
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Republic of Korea
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Sweden
Nigeria
Poland
Belgium
Argentina
Norway
Austria
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Colombia
Denmark
South Africa
Malaysia
Israel
Singapore
Egypt
Philippines
Finland
Chile
Ireland
Pakistan
Greece
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Czech Republic
Qatar
Peru
Romania
Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2020
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2020
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 6:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2020
Table 7:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2020
Table 8:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 9:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 10:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2020
Table 11:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 12:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 13:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2020
Table 14:
Producer Prices, By Major Producing Country, 2020
Table 15:
Producer Prices Index - Annual Data (2004-2006=100), By Major Producing Country
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2020
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Yield And Growth
Figure 11:
Exports And Growth
Figure 12:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 13:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 14:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 15:
Imports And Growth
Figure 16:
Import Prices
Figure 17:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 18:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 19:
Area Harvested, 2007–2020
Figure 20:
Yield, 2007–2020
Figure 21:
Production, By Country, 2020
Figure 22:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 23:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2020
Figure 24:
Harvested Area, By Country, 2007-2020
Figure 25:
Yield, By Country, 2007-2020
Figure 26:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 27:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 28:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 29:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 30:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 31:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 32:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 33:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 34:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 35:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 36:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 37:
Export Prices, 2007–2020

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