Wheat Price Growth to Slow Down with Sufficient Global Production in 2022

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Wheat - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

In 2022, wheat price growth is forecast to slow down with sufficient global production and falling demand for feed grains in the U.S. and the EU. World's wheat output is set to remain at the 2021's level of approx. 777M tons.

Wheat price growth will be held by sufficient global supply and falling demand for feed grains in the U.S. and the EU in 2022. In 2021, the average export price for U.S. Soft Red Winter Wheat delivered at the U.S. Gulf port rose by 24% y/y to $282 per ton. Increasing costs of fungicides and fertilizers and labour shortages worldwide are the key drivers of of soft wheat price growth, which is expected to reach 2% this year.

According to IndexBox estimates based on USDA and World Bank data, global wheat production is projected to stay at 777M tons this year, remaining nearly unchanged compared to the previous year's figures. Higher outputs are expected in Argentina, Australia, Brazil, China, Egypt, the EU, India, Pakistan, Ukraine, and the U.K., while production in Russia, Canada, Kazakhstan, and Turkey is to decline. Harvests in Iran, Iraq and Syria are to see a deep drop due to a drought, which will force these countries to ramp up wheat imports sharply.

Global Wheat Exports in 2020

Global wheat exports were estimated at 199M tons in 2020, increasing by 13% compared with the previous year's figure. In value terms, supplies rose markedly to $45.3B.

The shipments of the five major exporters of wheat, namely Russia, the U.S., Canada, France and Ukraine, represented more than half of global supplies. Australia (10M tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 5.2% share, followed by Argentina (5.1%) and Germany (4.7%). The following exporters - Kazakhstan (5.4M tons), Poland (4.7M tons), Romania (4.3M tons), Lithuania (4M tons) and Bulgaria (3.2M tons) - together made up 11% of total volume.

In value terms, Russia ($7.9B), the U.S. ($6.3B) and Canada ($6.3B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2020, with a combined 45% share of global supplies. These countries were followed by France, Ukraine, Australia, Germany, Argentina, Kazakhstan, Poland, Romania, Lithuania and Bulgaria, which together accounted for a further 44%.

Top Largest Wheat Importers in 2020

The purchases of the twelve major importers of wheat, namely Indonesia, Turkey, Egypt, Nigeria, China, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Brazil, Bangladesh, Morocco and Japan, represented more than third of total volume. The Netherlands (4.3M tons) occupied a minor share of global imports.

In value terms, the largest wheat importing markets worldwide were Egypt ($2.7B), Indonesia ($2.6B) and Turkey ($2.3B), together accounting for 16% of international purchases. These countries were followed by China, Nigeria, Italy, Algeria, the Philippines, Japan, Brazil, Morocco, Bangladesh and the Netherlands, which together accounted for a further 34%.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform