Wheat and Meslin Flour Market

The article provides a detailed analysis of the global wheat and meslin flour market, forecasting a continuous upward consumption trend. It predicts market performance with accelerating growth rates in volume and value terms, reaching 323M tons and $290.2B respectively by 2030. Key insights include consumption patterns, production trends, imports, and exports across major countries like China, the United States, Turkey, and India. The data also highlights the average annual rates of growth, highest levels of imports and exports, and notable fluctuations in prices. Overall, the article offers valuable insights for stakeholders in the wheat and meslin flour industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wheat and meslin flour worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 323M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $290.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Wheat and Meslin Flour

In 2022, the amount of wheat and meslin flour consumed worldwide totaled 269M tons, remaining constant against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 270M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global wheat and meslin flour market value rose slightly to $182B in 2022, surging by 1.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, continues to indicate a slight descent. As a result, consumption attained the peak level of $235.8B. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the global market remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (60M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of wheat and meslin flour consumption, comprising approx. 22% of total volume. Moreover, wheat and meslin flour consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (16M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Nigeria (8.8M tons), with a 3.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +3.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-2.6% per year) and Nigeria (+6.5% per year).

In value terms, the largest wheat and meslin flour markets worldwide were China ($25.8B), Turkey ($21.1B) and the United States ($7.6B), together comprising 30% of the global market. Nigeria, Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Germany, Japan, Pakistan and Iraq lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 10%.

Among the main consuming countries, Pakistan, with a CAGR of +5.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wheat and meslin flour per capita consumption in 2022 were Iraq (130 kg per person), Turkey (81 kg per person) and Germany (59 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +3.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Wheat and Meslin Flour

In 2022, global wheat and meslin flour production was estimated at 270M tons, stabilizing at the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 when the production volume increased by 5.5% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 271M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour production reduced slightly to $150.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production enjoyed a measured expansion. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 338% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak level of $672.6B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (61M tons) remains the largest wheat and meslin flour producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 22% of total volume. Moreover, wheat and meslin flour production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (16M tons), fourfold. Turkey (9.9M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 3.7% share.

In China, wheat and meslin flour production expanded at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-2.7% per year) and Turkey (+2.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Wheat and Meslin Flour

In 2022, purchases abroad of wheat and meslin flour was finally on the rise to reach 12M tons after four years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 14M tons. From 2018 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour imports surged to $5.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Afghanistan (1.7M tons) and Iraq (1.3M tons) were the key importers of wheat and meslin flouraround the world, together generating 24% of total imports. It was distantly followed by the Netherlands (617K tons), committing a 5% share of total imports. Yemen (533K tons), Uzbekistan (428K tons), Sri Lanka (355K tons), Syrian Arab Republic (311K tons), Somalia (308K tons), the United States (307K tons), France (284K tons), Brazil (282K tons), Ireland (274K tons) and Venezuela (196K tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Venezuela (with a CAGR of +59.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Afghanistan ($575M), Iraq ($472M) and the Netherlands ($288M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 23% of global imports. The United States, Yemen, France, Ireland, Brazil, Uzbekistan, Sri Lanka, Syrian Arab Republic, Somalia and Venezuela lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

Venezuela, with a CAGR of +53.3%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average wheat and meslin flour import price stood at $462 per ton in 2022, surging by 8.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $473 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($889 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($332 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+13.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Wheat and Meslin Flour

In 2022, shipments abroad of wheat and meslin flour increased by 11% to 13M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year declining trend. Over the period under review, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The global exports peaked at 14M tons in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, wheat and meslin flour exports skyrocketed to $6.7B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Turkey (3.1M tons), distantly followed by Kazakhstan (1.9M tons), Germany (1M tons), Uzbekistan (0.8M tons) and India (0.7M tons) represented the main exporters of wheat and meslin flour, together mixing up 56% of total exports. Argentina (425K tons), Russia (402K tons), Belgium (305K tons), Italy (297K tons), the UK (243K tons), the United States (204K tons) and Vietnam (204K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Uzbekistan (with a CAGR of +30.6%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Turkey ($1.5B), Kazakhstan ($753M) and Germany ($517M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 41% of global exports. India, Uzbekistan, Italy, Argentina, the United States, Russia, Belgium, the UK and Vietnam lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

Among the main exporting countries, Uzbekistan, with a CAGR of +42.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average wheat and meslin flour export price amounted to $505 per ton, picking up by 17% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($850 per ton), while Uzbekistan ($343 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Uzbekistan (+8.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform