Paper and Paperboard Market

The global paper and paperboard market is expected to see continued growth with consumption, production, imports, and exports all showing upward trends. By 2030, the market volume is projected to reach 486M tons. China leads both consumption and production, with packaging materials being the most widely utilized product. Imports and exports are also on the rise, with Germany and the United States being major players in the market. Overall, the industry is forecasted to maintain a positive trajectory in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for paper and paperboard worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 486M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of -0.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $638.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, global consumption of paper and paperboard dropped slightly to 440M tons, almost unchanged from 2021 figures. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 3.2%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 444M tons, leveling off in the following year.

The global paper and paperboard market size stood at $674.2B in 2022, standing approx. at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of paper and paperboard consumption was China (140M tons), accounting for 32% of total volume. Moreover, paper and paperboard consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (64M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Japan (22M tons), with a 4.9% share.

In China, paper and paperboard consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.1% per year) and Japan (-2.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($191B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($53.4B). It was followed by Japan.

In China, the paper and paperboard market increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.1% per year) and Japan (-6.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of paper and paperboard per capita consumption in 2022 were Germany (213 kg per person), Poland (199 kg per person) and Italy (191 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Poland (with a CAGR of +4.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Packaging materials (267M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, packaging materials exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, graphic papers (111M tons), twofold. Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (72M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 15% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of packaging materials consumption amounted to +2.2%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: graphic papers (-3.1% per year) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+5.8% per year).

In value terms, packaging materials ($261B), graphic papers ($187B) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper ($107.8B) were the products with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 91% of the global market.

Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper, with a CAGR of +5.5%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size among the main consumed products over the period under review, while market for the other products experienced mixed trends in the market figures.

Production

World Production of Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, approx. 440M tons of paper and paperboard were produced worldwide; remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the production volume increased by 3.5%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 446M tons, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, paper and paperboard production amounted to $464.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $466.9B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of paper and paperboard production was China (138M tons), accounting for 31% of total volume. Moreover, paper and paperboard production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (65M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Japan (23M tons), with a 5.2% share.

In China, paper and paperboard production increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (-1.3% per year) and Japan (-1.4% per year).

Production By Type

Packaging materials (266M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, packaging materials exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, graphic papers (112M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (72M tons), with a 15% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the volume of packaging materials production totaled +2.1%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: graphic papers (-3.1% per year) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+5.8% per year).

In value terms, packaging materials ($262.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by graphic papers ($130.8B). It was followed by toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of packaging materials production amounted to +2.4%. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: graphic papers (-1.4% per year) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+5.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, the amount of paper and paperboard imported worldwide contracted to 111M tons, waning by -2.1% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 3.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 114M tons in 2021, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

In value terms, paper and paperboard imports surged to $124B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, imports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China (9M tons), Germany (8.9M tons) and the United States (8.7M tons) represented roughly 24% of total imports in 2022. It was followed by Italy (5.4M tons), committing a 4.8% share of total imports. Poland (4.9M tons), France (4.8M tons), the UK (4.8M tons), Mexico (3.5M tons), Belgium (3.4M tons), Spain (3M tons), Turkey (2.9M tons), the Netherlands (2.9M tons) and Canada (2.6M tons) took a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +11.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($10.6B), Germany ($9.7B) and China ($6.4B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 21% share of global imports.

China, with a CAGR of +6.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Packaging materials was the largest type of paper and paperboard in the world, with the volume of imports recording 68M tons, which was approx. 61% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by graphic papers (38M tons), committing a 35% share of total imports. Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (3.3M tons) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (with a CAGR of +3.6%), while purchases for the other products experienced mixed trends in the imports figures.

In value terms, packaging materials ($70.4B), graphic papers ($43.1B) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper ($5.4B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 97% share of global imports.

Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper, with a CAGR of +4.6%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average paper and paperboard import price amounted to $1,113 per ton, with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was paper other than graphic, packaging or tissue ($2,681 per ton), while the price for packaging materials ($1,040 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by graphic papers (+1.8%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average paper and paperboard import price stood at $1,113 per ton in 2022, surging by 20% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,310 per ton), while China ($709 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+3.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Paper and Paperboard

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in overseas shipments of paper and paperboard, when their volume decreased by -3.3% to 112M tons. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 4.2%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 116M tons, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, paper and paperboard exports skyrocketed to $120.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 18%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Germany (13M tons), the United States (10M tons), Sweden (8.6M tons), China (7.2M tons), Finland (7M tons), Canada (6.1M tons), Indonesia (5M tons), Austria (3.8M tons), France (3.6M tons), Belgium (3.4M tons), Italy (3.1M tons) and Russia (2.8M tons) represented roughly 66% of total exports in 2022. The Netherlands (2.8M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($15B), the United States ($10.3B) and China ($9.3B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 29% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, China, with a CAGR of +7.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Packaging materials represented the largest exported product with an export of about 67M tons, which resulted at 60% of total exports. It was distantly followed by graphic papers (39M tons), committing a 35% share of total exports. Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (3.4M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (with a CAGR of +4.3%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest types of exported paper and paperboard were packaging materials ($68.3B), graphic papers ($42.5B) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper ($5.3B), together accounting for 97% of global exports.

Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper, with a CAGR of +5.2%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exported products over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average paper and paperboard export price amounted to $1,074 per ton, growing by 19% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was paper other than graphic, packaging or tissue ($2,479 per ton), while the average price for exports of packaging materials ($1,018 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by graphic papers (+1.9%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average paper and paperboard export price amounted to $1,074 per ton, surging by 19% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,421 per ton), while Russia ($826 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Austria (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform