Paddy Rice Market

Driven by increasing demand for paddy rice worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 854M tons by the end of 2030. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,259.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030. In 2022, consumption of paddy rice decreased by -1.5% to 776M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Global consumption peaked at 788M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year. The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China, India, and Bangladesh, with a combined 59% share of global consumption. India showed the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption. On the production side, there was a slight decline in 2022 after two years of growth, with global production reaching 776M tons. The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China, India, and Bangladesh, also accounting for a combined 59% share of global production. The global average paddy rice yield dropped slightly in 2022, but the harvested area remained stable. Paddy rice imports and exports also saw fluctuations in 2022, with major importing and exporting countries playing significant roles in the global trade of paddy rice. Overall, the market is expected to see steady growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for paddy rice worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 854M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $1,259.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Paddy Rice

In 2022, consumption of paddy rice decreased by -1.5% to 776M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. In general, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 2.6% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 788M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

The global paddy rice market size dropped slightly to $1,004.9B in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $1,017.5B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (208M tons), India (196M tons) and Bangladesh (57M tons), with a combined 59% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +2.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($630.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Bangladesh ($79.5B). It was followed by India.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Bangladesh (+2.8% per year) and India (+1.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of paddy rice per capita consumption in 2022 were Thailand (490 kg per person), Myanmar (447 kg per person) and Vietnam (431 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +1.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

Production

World Production of Paddy Rice

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of paddy rice, when its volume decreased by -1.5% to 776M tons. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 2.5%. Global production peaked at 788M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, paddy rice production reduced slightly to $1,144.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +7.6% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 121%. Global production peaked at $1,153.5B in 2021, and then fell modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (208M tons), India (196M tons) and Bangladesh (57M tons), with a combined 59% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +2.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average paddy rice yield dropped to 4.7 tons per ha in 2022, remaining stable against 2021. In general, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 1.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average paddy rice yield reached the maximum level at 4.7 tons per ha in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2022, approx. 165M ha of paddy rice were harvested worldwide; stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the harvested area increased by 2.6%. The global harvested area peaked at 166M ha in 2021, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Paddy Rice

In 2022, global paddy rice imports reduced to 2.8M tons, dropping by -11.7% on 2021. In general, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 54%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 3.3M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, paddy rice imports contracted to $1.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when imports increased by 77% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $1.4B. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Nepal (471K tons), Mexico (431K tons), Venezuela (307K tons), Costa Rica (270K tons), Honduras (182K tons), Guatemala (150K tons), Colombia (138K tons), Nicaragua (102K tons), El Salvador (98K tons), Libya (95K tons), Yemen (82K tons) and the Philippines (81K tons) was the major importer of paddy rice in the world, comprising 84% of total import.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by the Philippines (with a CAGR of +35.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Mexico ($178M), Nepal ($127M) and Venezuela ($101M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 35% share of global imports. Costa Rica, Guatemala, the Philippines, Colombia, Honduras, Nicaragua, El Salvador, Yemen and Libya lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

Colombia, with a CAGR of +19.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average paddy rice import price amounted to $410 per ton, picking up by 5% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average import price increased by 15% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $474 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Philippines ($753 per ton), while Libya ($184 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Nepal (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Paddy Rice

In 2022, approx. 3.1M tons of paddy rice were exported worldwide; growing by 3.2% compared with 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when exports increased by 22%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 3.3M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, paddy rice exports stood at $1.2B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when exports increased by 28%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The United States (958K tons) and Brazil (940K tons) were the key exporters of paddy rice in 2022, amounting to approx. 31% and 31% of total exports, respectively. India (461K tons) took a 15% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Uruguay (9.3%). Paraguay (131K tons) and Guyana (90K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Brazil (with a CAGR of +21.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($376M), Brazil ($313M) and India ($151M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 70% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Brazil, with a CAGR of +21.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average paddy rice export price stood at $391 per ton in 2022, surging by 6.6% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The global export price peaked at $437 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Guyana ($405 per ton) and the United States ($393 per ton), while Paraguay ($275 per ton) and Uruguay ($323 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+0.5%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform