Crowding Competitors Out with Lower Prices, Indian Exports Dominate the Global Rice Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Rice - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

In 2020, the global rice market displayed robust production indicators. Despite a pronounced shortage of shipping containers threatening to disrupt supplies to Africa, the global rice export market continues to expand. India maintains its status as the largest exporter, boasting the most competitive rice export prices.

Key Trends and Insights

In 2020, rice production worldwide increased by 2.0 million tonnes against the previous year's figures, surging to a record 503.2 million tonnes (according to the USDA data).

Africa, a key rice importer, may encounter a shortage in rice supplies, following a global lack of shipping containers in 2021. Despite the fact that rice production in Africa has increased by 10% over the past 5-year period, the continent continues to rely heavily on imports.

India exported a record 14.5K tonnes of rice in 2020, maintaining its dominant export position worldwide. The bumper crop yield seen over the past two years has enabled India to maintain competitively low prices, thereby displacing Pakistan's and Myanmar's exports from the African market. In 2021, it is projected that increased supplies to Bangladesh will further boost Indian exports. China is now redirecting its national rice stores for domestic consumption and has reduced the volume of rice exports to Africa.

In early 2021, India boasted the most competitively low prices ($370 per ton of nonparboiled white rice in Jan 2021), while prices for Vietnamese rice surged, following a stocks shortage until the beginning of the rice crop yield ($515 per ton of 5-percent broken kernel long-grain milled rice), becoming comparable with Thai rice prices. The price for rice from the USA, Uruguay and Argentina exceeded $600 per ton.

India to Feature Increasing Consumption and Export Volumes

The global rice market reached $363.8B in 2019, flattening at the previous year. The figures in this article relate to all types of rice (paddy, milled, etc.) in total.

The countries with the highest volumes of rice consumption in 2019 were China (211M tonnes), India (168M tonnes) and Indonesia (57M tonnes), together comprising 57% of global consumption. These countries were followed by Bangladesh, Vietnam, Myanmar, Thailand and the Philippines, which together accounted for a further 21% (IndexBox estimates).

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in the Philippines, while rice consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($114.7B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Bangladesh ($57.1B). It was followed by the Philippines.

The countries with the highest levels of rice per capita consumption in 2019 were Myanmar (472 kg per person), Vietnam (390 kg per person) and Bangladesh (330 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2019, the biggest increases were in India, while rice per capita consumption for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the per capita consumption figures.

After two years of growth, overseas shipments of rice decreased by -9.8% to 39M tonnes in 2019. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2012 to 2019.

In value terms, rice exports dropped to $23.1B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

In 2019, India (9.8M tonnes), distantly followed by Thailand (5.8M tonnes), Vietnam (5.5M tonnes), Pakistan (4.6M tonnes), the U.S. (3.6M tonnes) and China (2.1M tonnes) represented the largest exporters of rice, together creating 80% of total exports. Brazil (1,063K tonnes), Paraguay (738K tonnes), Myanmar (733K tonnes) and Italy (679K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by China, while exports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rice supplying countries worldwide were India ($6.8B), Thailand ($4.2B) and Vietnam ($2.4B), together comprising 58% of global exports. Pakistan, the U.S., China, Italy, Brazil, Myanmar and Paraguay lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

The average rice export price stood at $584 per tonne in 2019, increasing by 5.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, average export prices attained the maximum at $621 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, export prices remained at a lower figure.

Source: IndexBox Platform