Global Almond Market 2019 - After Five Years of Robust Growth of In-Shell Nut Imports, India Emerges as the Most Promising Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Almonds - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The global almond market revenue amounted to $10.5B in 2018, going up by 6.5% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total market indicated remarkable growth from 2007 to 2018: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the almond consumption increased by +62.4% against 2008 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011, when the market value increased by 18% against the previous year. Global almond consumption peaked in 2018, and is likely to continue its growth in the immediate term.

Production 2007-2018

Global almond production stood at 2.4M tonnes in 2018, rising by 3.8% against the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2007 to 2018; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2011, when the output figure increased by 13% year-to-year. Global almond production peaked in 2018, and is expected to retain its growth in the near future. The general positive trend in terms of almond output was largely conditioned by a measured increase of the harvested area and a slight growth in yield figures.

Exports 2007-2018

Global exports totaled 306K tonnes in 2018, coming down by -6.2% against the previous year. Overall, the total exports indicated strong growth from 2007 to 2018: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +7.0% over the last eleven year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. In value terms, almond exports amounted to $1.3B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

In 2018, the U.S. (204K tonnes) represented the major exporter for almonds, generating 67% of total exports. China, Hong Kong SAR (36K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by Australia (7%) and Benin (6.8%). The United Arab Emirates (7K tonnes) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports from the U.S. increased at an average annual rate of +11.5% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, Australia (+12.1%) and the United Arab Emirates (+7.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Australia emerged as the fastest growing exporter in the world, with a CAGR of +12.1% from 2007-2018. Benin and China, Hong Kong SAR experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2007 to 2018, the share of the U.S. and Australia increased by +47% and +5% percentage points, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the U.S. ($993M) remains the largest almond supplier worldwide, comprising 76% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by China, Hong Kong SAR ($117M), with a 9% share of global exports. It was followed by Australia, with a 8.1% share.

Export Prices by Country

The average almond export price stood at $4,284 per tonne in 2018, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. In general, the export price indicated remarkable growth from 2007 to 2018: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last eleven year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2018 figures, the almond export price decreased by -1.4% against 2015 indices. There were significant differences in the average export prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2018, the country with the highest export price was Australia ($4,963 per tonne), while Benin ($448 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of export prices was attained by China, Hong Kong SAR, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports 2007-2018

In 2018, approx. 299K tonnes of almonds were imported worldwide; going down by -2% against the previous year. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2007 to 2018; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded over the period under review. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016, with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 325K tonnes in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2018, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, almond imports totaled $1.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2018. Overall, almond imports, however, continue to indicate remarkable expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2011, with an increase of 19% y-o-y. Over the period under review, global almond imports attained their maximum at $1.4B in 2017, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Imports by Country

In 2018, India (131K tonnes) represented the key importer for almonds, making up 44% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Viet Nam (61K tonnes), China, Hong Kong SAR (46K tonnes) and China (15K tonnes), together committing 41% share of total imports. The following importers - the United Arab Emirates (6.2K tonnes), Japan (5.8K tonnes) and Spain (5.8K tonnes) - each amounted to a 5.9% share of total imports.

Imports into India increased at an average annual rate of +9.8% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, China (+21.6%), China, Hong Kong SAR (+16.8%), Spain (+7.4%) and the United Arab Emirates (+7.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest growing importer in the world, with a CAGR of +21.6% from 2007-2018. Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Viet Nam (-6.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+28 p.p.), China, Hong Kong SAR (+13 p.p.) and China (+4.3 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2007-2018, the share of Viet Nam (-19.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($666M) constitutes the largest market for imported almonds worldwide, comprising 48% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Viet Nam ($243M), with a 17% share of global imports. It was followed by China, Hong Kong SAR, with a 15% share.

Import Prices by Country

The average almond import price stood at $4,675 per tonne in 2018, approximately reflecting the previous year. Over the period under review, the almond import price continues to indicate strong growth. There were significant differences in the average import prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2018, the country with the highest import price was Japan ($6,976 per tonne), while Spain ($3,921 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of import prices was attained by Viet Nam, while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform