Global Pistachio Market Set to Soar with Projected 6.4% CAGR and $15.2B Market Value by 2030

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Pistachios - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

Driven by increasing demand for pistachios worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +6.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.6M tons by the end of 2030. In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +8.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $15.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030. The global market recorded decline in consumption of pistachios for the third year in a row, with a decrease of -1.6% in 2023. However, overall consumption has shown growth from 2013 to 2023, with fluctuations in trend patterns. The article also covers production, imports, and exports of pistachios, with detailed insights on top consuming, producing, importing, and exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for pistachios worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next seven years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +6.4% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.6M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +8.0% for the period from 2023 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $15.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

Consumption

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded decline in consumption of pistachios, which decreased by -1.6% to 1.1M tons in 2023. Overall, the total consumption indicated a noticeable expansion from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption decreased by -24.0% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 1.4M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2023, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global pistachio market revenue shrank to $8.9B in 2023, reducing by -5.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, the total consumption indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, consumption decreased by -21.4% against 2020 indices. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $11.3B. From 2021 to 2023, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2023 were Iran (246K tons), Turkey (190K tons) and China (152K tons), together accounting for 56% of global consumption. The United States, Syrian Arab Republic, Italy, India, Germany and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for India (with a CAGR of +15.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest pistachio markets worldwide were Turkey ($2B), Iran ($1.6B) and China ($1.2B), together comprising 54% of the global market. The United States, Syrian Arab Republic, Italy, Germany, India and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 29%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, India, with a CAGR of +16.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of pistachio per capita consumption in 2023 were Iran (2,827 kg per 1000 persons), Turkey (2,216 kg per 1000 persons) and Syrian Arab Republic (2,008 kg per 1000 persons).

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +14.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

Production

In 2023, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in production of pistachios, when its volume increased by 8.3% to 1.2M tons. Over the period under review, the total production indicated buoyant growth from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production decreased by -19.0% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 53%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 1.5M tons. From 2021 to 2023, global production growth failed to regain momentum. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a strong expansion of the harvested area and a mild slump in yield figures.

In value terms, pistachio production amounted to $10.2B in 2023 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a strong increase from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2023 figures, production decreased by -0.2% against 2021 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 47%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $11.2B. From 2017 to 2023, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2023 were the United States (462K tons), Iran (336K tons) and Turkey (179K tons), together comprising 82% of global production.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +8.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average pistachio yield skyrocketed to 1.1 tons per ha in 2023, growing by 25% compared with the previous year. In general, the yield, however, recorded a mild slump. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the yield increased by 97% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average pistachio yield attained the maximum level at 2.7 tons per ha in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2023, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2023, the total area harvested in terms of pistachios production worldwide dropped to 1.1M ha, waning by -13.3% against the year before. Overall, the harvested area, however, showed a strong increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when the harvested area increased by 62% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 1.3M ha in 2022, and then declined in the following year.

Imports

Imports

In 2023, the amount of pistachios imported worldwide skyrocketed to 415K tons, growing by 16% against 2022 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 22%. Global imports peaked at 467K tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2023, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, pistachio imports surged to $3.4B in 2023. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2013 to 2023; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 18% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of $3.7B. From 2020 to 2023, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2023, China (73K tons), followed by Germany (45K tons), Turkey (43K tons), India (29K tons) and Italy (27K tons) were the main importers of pistachios, together creating 53% of total imports. The following importers - Vietnam (16K tons), Spain (16K tons), Belgium (11K tons), the United Arab Emirates (11K tons), Iraq (8.7K tons), Russia (8K tons), Luxembourg (7.8K tons) and the Netherlands (7.8K tons) - together made up 21% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2023, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +22.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest pistachio importing markets worldwide were China ($463M), Germany ($452M) and Italy ($313M), with a combined 37% share of global imports. Turkey, India, Spain, Vietnam, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, Russia and Luxembourg lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 35%.

Among the main importing countries, Belgium, with a CAGR of +24.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2023, the average pistachio import price amounted to $8,083 per ton, standing approx. at the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 6.2%. Global import price peaked at $8,593 per ton in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2023, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2023, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($11,594 per ton), while Luxembourg ($5,010 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

Exports

In 2023, overseas shipments of pistachios were finally on the rise to reach 542K tons after three years of decline. In general, total exports indicated a buoyant increase from 2013 to 2023: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, pistachio exports soared to $4.2B in 2023. Overall, total exports indicated strong growth from 2013 to 2023: its value increased at an average annual rate of +5.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The United States represented the largest exporting country with an export of around 330K tons, which reached 61% of total exports. Iran (91K tons) held a 17% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Turkey (5.9%) and Belgium (4.6%). Germany (18K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from the United States increased at an average annual rate of +9.2% from 2013 to 2023. At the same time, Belgium (+35.1%), Turkey (+16.2%) and Germany (+6.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +35.1% from 2013-2023. Iran experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. While the share of the United States (+19 p.p.), Belgium (+4.2 p.p.) and Turkey (+3.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2023, the share of Iran (-12.4 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($2.4B) remains the largest pistachio supplier worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Iran ($646M), with a 15% share of global exports. It was followed by Turkey, with a 7.5% share.

In the United States, pistachio exports increased at an average annual rate of +8.0% over the period from 2013-2023. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Iran (-0.2% per year) and Turkey (+15.3% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2023, the average pistachio export price amounted to $7,794 per ton, shrinking by -3.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the average export price increased by 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $8,194 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2023, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2023, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($11,932 per ton), while Iran ($7,101 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2023, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+6.8%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform