Paper And Paperboard, Excluding Newsprint Market

The article discusses the global paper and paperboard market, excluding newsprint, predicting growth in consumption and market value over the next eight years. China leads in both consumption and production, with packaging materials being the most significant product type. Import and export trends are also analyzed, with prices showing fluctuations based on product type and country of origin. Overall, the market is expected to see gradual growth in the coming years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 527M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $747.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Paper And Paperboard, Excluding Newsprint

Global paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint consumption reduced to 455M tons in 2022, falling by -2.1% against 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the consumption volume increased by 4.1% against the previous year. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 464M tons, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

The value of the market for paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint worldwide declined to $546.7B in 2022, dropping by -4.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $572B, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (141M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint consumption, comprising approx. 31% of total volume. Moreover, paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (64M tons), twofold. Japan (21M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 4.7% share.

In China, paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (-0.1% per year) and Japan (-1.6% per year).

In value terms, China ($215.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($56.5B). It was followed by Japan.

In China, the paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint market expanded at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+0.6% per year) and Japan (-5.4% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (191 kg per person), South Korea (189 kg per person) and Germany (189 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +4.8%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Packaging materials (267M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, packaging materials exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, printing and writing paper (96M tons), threefold. Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (72M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 16% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of packaging materials consumption stood at +2.2%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: printing and writing paper (-2.2% per year) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+5.8% per year).

In value terms, packaging materials ($261B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by printing and writing paper ($122.7B). It was followed by toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper.

For packaging materials, market expanded at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: printing and writing paper (-0.6% per year) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+5.5% per year).

Production

World Production of Paper And Paperboard, Excluding Newsprint

In 2022, global paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint production fell to 455M tons, which is down by -1.8% compared with 2021 figures. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 4.5% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 464M tons, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

In value terms, paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint production shrank to $549B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 18%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $591.3B, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

China (140M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint production, comprising approx. 31% of total volume. Moreover, paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (66M tons), twofold. Japan (22M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 4.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +2.4%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: the United States (-0.3% per year) and Japan (-0.5% per year).

Production By Type

Packaging materials (266M tons) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, accounting for 59% of total volume. Moreover, packaging materials exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, printing and writing paper (97M tons), threefold. Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (72M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 16% share.

For packaging materials, production expanded at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: printing and writing paper (-2.1% per year) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+5.8% per year).

In value terms, packaging materials ($262.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by printing and writing paper ($123B). It was followed by toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of packaging materials production stood at +2.4%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: printing and writing paper (-0.6% per year) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+5.7% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Paper And Paperboard, Excluding Newsprint

After two years of growth, purchases abroad of paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint decreased by -3.7% to 104M tons in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 4.6%. Global imports peaked at 108M tons in 2021, and then declined slightly in the following year.

In value terms, paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint imports soared to $117.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 17%. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

China (8.5M tons), Germany (8.3M tons) and the United States (7.7M tons) represented roughly 24% of total imports in 2022. Italy (5M tons) held a 4.8% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Poland (4.5%). France (4.6M tons), the UK (4.2M tons), Mexico (3.4M tons), Belgium (3.3M tons), Spain (2.9M tons), Turkey (2.7M tons), Canada (2.6M tons) and the Netherlands (2.5M tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +11.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint importing markets worldwide were the United States ($10B), Germany ($9.2B) and China ($6.1B), together accounting for 21% of global imports.

China, with a CAGR of +6.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Packaging materials was the main type of paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint in the world, with the volume of imports reaching 68M tons, which was near 65% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by printing and writing paper (32M tons), committing a 30% share of total imports. Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (3.3M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to packaging materials imports of stood at +3.6%. At the same time, toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +3.6% from 2012-2022. By contrast, printing and writing paper (-3.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Packaging materials (+15 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while printing and writing paper saw its share reduced by -16.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, packaging materials ($70.4B), printing and writing paper ($37.9B) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper ($5.4B) appeared to be the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together accounting for 97% of global imports.

Among the main imported products, toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper, with a CAGR of +4.6%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

In 2022, the average import price for paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint amounted to $1,129 per ton, with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was paper other than graphic, packaging or tissue ($2,681 per ton), while the price for packaging materials ($1,040 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by printing and writing paper (+1.7%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint amounted to $1,129 per ton, growing by 20% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,307 per ton), while China ($712 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+3.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Paper And Paperboard, Excluding Newsprint

In 2022, shipments abroad of paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint decreased by -2.6% to 105M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. Overall, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.6%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 107M tons, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

In value terms, paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint exports rose sharply to $114.9B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 18%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Germany (13M tons), the United States (10M tons), Sweden (8.4M tons), China (7.1M tons) and Finland (7M tons) represented roughly 43% of total exports in 2022. Indonesia (4.4M tons), Canada (4.2M tons), Austria (3.6M tons), France (3.3M tons), Italy (3.1M tons), Belgium (3M tons), the Netherlands (2.7M tons) and Poland (2.6M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($14.6B), the United States ($10.3B) and China ($9.3B), together comprising 30% of global exports.

China, with a CAGR of +6.9%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Packaging materials was the main type of paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 67M tons, which was approx. 64% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by printing and writing paper (33M tons), creating a 31% share of total exports. Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (3.4M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Exports of packaging materials increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper (+4.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +4.3% from 2012-2022. By contrast, printing and writing paper (-3.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of packaging materials (+14 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of printing and writing paper (-15.3 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, packaging materials ($68.3B), printing and writing paper ($37.5B) and toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper ($5.3B) were the products with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 97% of global exports.

Toilet or facial tissue stock, towel and similar paper, with a CAGR of +5.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exported products over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

The average export price for paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint stood at $1,097 per ton in 2022, rising by 18% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was paper other than graphic, packaging or tissue ($2,479 per ton), while the average price for exports of packaging materials ($1,018 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by printing and writing paper (+1.6%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for paper and paperboard, excluding newsprint stood at $1,097 per ton in 2022, jumping by 18% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($1,425 per ton), while Indonesia ($921 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform