Global Tomato Market to Reach 214 Million Tons and $225.8 Billion by 2035

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The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global tomato market for 2024, with forecasts to 2035. It details that global consumption and production were approximately 190 million tons in 2024, with China being the dominant consumer and producer. The market value was $190.1 billion, with a forecasted increase to $225.8 billion by 2035. Key trade flows are highlighted, with the United States as the largest importer and Mexico as the largest exporter. The analysis covers per capita consumption leaders, yield and harvested area trends, and price dynamics for imports and exports across major countries.

Key Findings

• Global tomato market volume is forecast to reach 214 million tons by 2035, with value projected at $225.8 billion
• China dominates consumption and production, accounting for 36-37% of the global total
• The United States is the world's leading importer by volume and value, while Mexico is the top exporter
• Per capita consumption is highest in Turkey (147 kg), Italy (104 kg), and Spain (71 kg)
• Global average import and export prices have shown consistent growth, reaching $1,659 and $1,610 per ton respectively in 2024

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 214M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $225.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2024, approx. 190M tons of tomatoes were consumed worldwide; remaining stable against 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 192M tons in 2023, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

The global tomato market revenue contracted slightly to $190.1B in 2024, waning by -1.9% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the market value increased by 8.2%. Global consumption peaked at $193.8B in 2023, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (69M tons) remains the largest tomato consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 36% of total volume. Moreover, tomato consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (20M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (13M tons), with a 7% share.

In China, tomato consumption expanded at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.2% per year) and the United States (-1.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($61B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($24.1B). It was followed by Italy.

In China, the tomato market increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-0.0% per year) and Italy (+2.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of tomato per capita consumption in 2024 were Turkey (147 kg per person), Italy (104 kg per person) and Spain (71 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +3.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Tomatoes

In 2024, approx. 190M tons of tomatoes were produced worldwide; standing approx. at the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when the production volume increased by 5.8%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak volume at 192M tons in 2023, and then fell slightly in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a slight expansion of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production contracted to $194.3B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the production volume increased by 11%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $199.2B in 2023, and then declined modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of tomato production was China (69M tons), comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (21M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Turkey (13M tons), with a 6.9% share.

In China, tomato production increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.1% per year) and Turkey (+1.0% per year).

Yield

In 2024, the global average yield of tomatoes amounted to 36 tons per ha, flattening at the year before. In general, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average tomato yield reached the peak level at 37 tons per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the global tomato harvested area contracted to 5.3M ha, declining by -1.6% against the year before. In general, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 3.2%. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 5.4M ha, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

Imports

World's Imports of Tomatoes

In 2024, global imports of tomatoes was estimated at 7.3M tons, growing by 2.9% on the year before. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 5.3%. Global imports peaked at 8.2M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato imports reached $12.1B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 28% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2024, the United States (2.1M tons) represented the main importer of tomatoes, constituting 29% of total imports. Germany (741K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 10% share, followed by France (8.4%), the UK (5.3%) and Pakistan (5.2%). The following importers - the Netherlands (285K tons), Russia (271K tons), Poland (243K tons), Spain (210K tons) and Canada (207K tons) - together made up 17% of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Spain (+5.9%), Poland (+5.3%), Pakistan (+3.2%) and the Netherlands (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +5.9% from 2013-2024. France, Canada, Germany and the UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Russia (-10.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+8.5 p.p.) and Pakistan (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2024, the share of Russia (-7.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($3.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported tomatoes worldwide, comprising 30% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($1.8B), with a 15% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 9.9% share.

In the United States, tomato imports increased at an average annual rate of +5.3% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+2.4% per year) and France (+6.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average tomato import price amounted to $1,659 per ton, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.9%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 an increase of 26% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the maximum in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,439 per ton), while Pakistan ($139 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+6.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Tomatoes

In 2024, shipments abroad of tomatoes decreased by -5.2% to 7.2M tons, falling for the third year in a row after four years of growth. Over the period under review, exports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 when exports increased by 8.5%. The global exports peaked at 8.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato exports shrank modestly to $11.6B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 9.8% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $12B, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Mexico was the largest exporter of tomatoes in the world, with the volume of exports accounting for 2.1M tons, which was near 28% of total exports in 2024. The Netherlands (938K tons) held a 13% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Spain (9.3%), Turkey (6.8%), Morocco (5.6%) and France (4.8%). The following exporters - Portugal (257K tons), Canada (239K tons), the United States (212K tons) and China (197K tons) - together made up 13% of total exports.

Exports from Mexico increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Portugal (+8.3%), France (+3.6%) and Canada (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Portugal emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +8.3% from 2013-2024. China, Turkey and the United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.4%), Morocco (-2.7%) and Spain (-3.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Mexico (+8.3 p.p.), Portugal (+2.2 p.p.) and France (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the Netherlands, Morocco and Spain saw its share reduced by -1.5%, -1.6% and -4.2% from 2013 to 2024, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest tomato supplying countries worldwide were Mexico ($3.3B), the Netherlands ($2B) and Spain ($1.2B), together comprising 57% of global exports. France, Morocco, Canada, the United States, Turkey, China and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 28%.

Among the main exporting countries, Portugal, with a CAGR of +14.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average tomato export price stood at $1,610 per ton in 2024, with an increase of 1.9% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.9%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the average export price increased by 21% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,545 per ton), while Portugal ($582 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+7.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.