World's Tomato Market to Expand With Anticipated +0.8% CAGR Through 2035

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This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global tomato market in 2024, with a forecast extending to 2035. Global consumption reached 189 million tons in 2024, with China being the largest consumer (37% share). The market is projected to grow at a CAGR of +0.8% in volume, reaching 206 million tons by 2035, and a CAGR of +1.3% in value, reaching $213.8 billion. Key trends include China's dominance in both production and consumption, the United States as the leading importer, and Mexico as the top exporter. The analysis also covers production yields, harvested areas, and detailed import/export statistics and prices for major countries.

Key Findings

• Global tomato market volume is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +0.8%, reaching 206 million tons by 2035
• China dominates the market, accounting for 37% of global consumption and production
• The United States is the world's largest importer by volume, while Germany has the highest import price
• Mexico is the leading global exporter, followed by the Netherlands and Morocco
• Per capita consumption is highest in Turkey (147 kg), Italy (104 kg), and Spain (71 kg)

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 206M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.3% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $213.8B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Tomatoes

Global tomato consumption contracted modestly to 189M tons in 2024, almost unchanged from 2023 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 192M tons in 2023, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

The global tomato market size dropped slightly to $185.1B in 2024, which is down by -2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $190.2B in 2023, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of tomato consumption was China (69M tons), comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (20M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (13M tons), with a 7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +2.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.2% per year) and the United States (-1.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($60.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($25.1B). It was followed by Italy.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +6.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.3% per year) and Italy (+2.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of tomato per capita consumption in 2024 were Turkey (147 kg per person), Italy (104 kg per person) and Spain (71 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +3.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Tomatoes

In 2024, global production of tomatoes contracted to 190M tons, declining by -1.5% compared with 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 5.8%. Global production peaked at 192M tons in 2023, and then reduced in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a modest increase of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production shrank modestly to $189.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 9.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $195.7B in 2023, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Production By Country

China (69M tons) remains the largest tomato producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (21M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Turkey (13M tons), with a 6.9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +2.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.1% per year) and Turkey (+1.0% per year).

Yield

In 2024, the global average yield of tomatoes stood at 36 tons per ha, standing approx. at 2023 figures. Over the period under review, the yield continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the yield increased by 4.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average tomato yield reached the maximum level at 37 tons per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of tomatoes production worldwide shrank to 5.3M ha, reducing by -1.6% on 2023. Over the period under review, the harvested area, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 with an increase of 3.2% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 5.4M ha, and then dropped in the following year.

Imports

World's Imports of Tomatoes

In 2024, the amount of tomatoes imported worldwide expanded markedly to 7.7M tons, picking up by 8.7% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global imports peaked at 8.1M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato imports rose rapidly to $12.4B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when imports increased by 28% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The United States represented the key importer of tomatoes in the world, with the volume of imports resulting at 2.1M tons, which was near 28% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Germany (741K tons), France (615K tons), the UK (391K tons) and Pakistan (377K tons), together creating a 28% share of total imports. Russia (316K tons), the Netherlands (285K tons), Poland (243K tons), Spain (210K tons) and Canada (207K tons) took a little share of total imports.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Spain (+5.9%), Poland (+5.3%), Pakistan (+3.2%) and the Netherlands (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +5.9% from 2013-2024. France, Canada, Germany and the UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Russia (-8.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of the United States (+7.2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2013-2024, the share of Russia (-7.5 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($3.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported tomatoes worldwide, comprising 29% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($1.8B), with a 15% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 9.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States stood at +5.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+2.4% per year) and France (+6.5% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average tomato import price amounted to $1,622 per ton, which is down by -2.2% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the average import price increased by 25%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1,658 per ton, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,439 per ton), while Pakistan ($139 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+6.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Tomatoes

In 2024, overseas shipments of tomatoes were finally on the rise to reach 8.2M tons for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The global exports peaked at 8.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato exports totaled $12.4B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 9.8% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Mexico (2.1M tons), distantly followed by the Netherlands (938K tons), Morocco (721K tons), Spain (675K tons), Turkey (492K tons) and Iran (416K tons) were the largest exporters of tomatoes, together mixing up 65% of total exports. France (347K tons), Portugal (257K tons), Canada (239K tons) and the United States (212K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

Exports from Mexico increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Iran (+41.2%), Portugal (+8.3%), Morocco (+4.2%), France (+3.6%) and Canada (+3.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Iran emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +41.2% from 2013-2024. Turkey and the United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.4%) and Spain (-3.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Iran (+5 p.p.), Mexico (+4 p.p.), Morocco (+2.5 p.p.) and Portugal (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while the Netherlands and Spain saw its share reduced by -3.7% and -5.9% from 2013 to 2024, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Mexico ($3.3B), the Netherlands ($2B) and Spain ($1.2B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, with a combined 53% share of global exports. Morocco, France, Canada, the United States, Turkey, Iran and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Iran, with a CAGR of +37.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average tomato export price amounted to $1,514 per ton, declining by -3.9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.2%. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 an increase of 21%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $1,576 per ton, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,545 per ton), while Iran ($447 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.