Global Tomato Market: Anticipated CAGR of +0.8% Expected to Drive Market Volume to 206M Tons by 2035

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The global tomato market is set to experience a steady rise in consumption, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.8% in volume and +0.9% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, market volume is expected to reach 206M tons, with a projected market value of $194.3B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 206M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +0.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $194.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2024, global tomato consumption shrank slightly to 189M tons, which is down by -1.5% compared with 2023. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 192M tons in 2023, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

The global tomato market value dropped slightly to $176.5B in 2024, waning by -3.8% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level at $194.7B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of tomato consumption was China (69M tons), comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (20M tons), threefold. The United States (13M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +2.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.2% per year) and the United States (-1.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($60.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($19.6B). It was followed by Italy.

In China, the tomato market increased at an average annual rate of +6.9% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (-1.9% per year) and Italy (+2.9% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of tomato per capita consumption in 2024 were Turkey (147 kg per person), Italy (104 kg per person) and Spain (71 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Nigeria (with a CAGR of +3.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Tomatoes

Global tomato production fell slightly to 190M tons in 2024, waning by -1.5% on the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 5.8%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum volume at 192M tons in 2023, and then reduced in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by slight growth of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production fell to $179.4B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 10%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $200.9B. From 2022 to 2024, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of tomato production was China (69M tons), comprising approx. 37% of total volume. Moreover, tomato production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (21M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Turkey (13M tons), with a 6.9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of volume in China totaled +2.9%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+1.1% per year) and Turkey (+1.0% per year).

Yield

The global average tomato yield amounted to 36 tons per ha in 2024, leveling off at 2023 figures. Overall, the yield showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2014 with an increase of 4.2%. Over the period under review, the average tomato yield attained the peak level at 37 tons per ha in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2024, the yield remained at a lower figure.

Harvested Area

In 2024, the total area harvested in terms of tomatoes production worldwide reduced slightly to 5.3M ha, shrinking by -1.6% on the previous year. Overall, the harvested area, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 3.2%. As a result, the harvested area attained the peak level of 5.4M ha, and then shrank in the following year.

Imports

World's Imports of Tomatoes

Global tomato imports expanded slightly to 7.3M tons in 2024, surging by 3.1% on 2023. Over the period under review, imports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 5.9%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 8.1M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, tomato imports contracted slightly to $11.6B in 2024. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when imports increased by 28% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of $11.7B, leveling off in the following year.

Imports By Country

The United States represented the largest importer of tomatoes in the world, with the volume of imports recording 2.1M tons, which was approx. 29% of total imports in 2024. France (588K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Germany (576K tons), the UK (391K tons) and Pakistan (377K tons). All these countries together held approx. 27% share of total imports. Russia (316K tons), the Netherlands (216K tons), Spain (210K tons), Canada (207K tons) and Poland (195K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into the United States increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Spain (+5.9%), Pakistan (+3.2%) and Poland (+3.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +5.9% from 2013-2024. France, Canada and the UK experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-1.4%), Germany (-2.4%) and Russia (-8.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of the United States and Pakistan increased by +8.8 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($3.6B) constitutes the largest market for imported tomatoes worldwide, comprising 31% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Germany ($1.4B), with a 12% share of global imports. It was followed by France, with a 10% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States stood at +5.3%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+0.1% per year) and France (+6.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average tomato import price stood at $1,594 per ton in 2024, with a decrease of -3.9% against the previous year. Over the last eleven-year period, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.6%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when the average import price increased by 25% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,659 per ton, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,455 per ton), while Pakistan ($139 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+6.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Tomatoes

In 2024, after two years of decline, there was growth in shipments abroad of tomatoes, when their volume increased by 3.5% to 7.9M tons. Overall, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 6.3% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 8.6M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, tomato exports contracted slightly to $11.9B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when exports increased by 9.8% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $12B, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Mexico represented the main exporter of tomatoes in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 2.1M tons, which was near 26% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by the Netherlands (800K tons), Morocco (721K tons), Spain (654K tons), Turkey (492K tons) and Iran (416K tons), together creating a 39% share of total exports. France (283K tons), Portugal (260K tons), Canada (239K tons) and the United States (212K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to tomato exports from Mexico stood at +2.7%. At the same time, Iran (+41.2%), Portugal (+8.4%), Morocco (+4.2%), Canada (+3.6%) and France (+1.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Iran emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +41.2% from 2013-2024. Turkey and the United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Netherlands (-2.9%) and Spain (-4.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Iran (+5.1 p.p.), Mexico (+5 p.p.), Morocco (+2.8 p.p.) and Portugal (+1.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2013-2024, the share of the Netherlands (-5 p.p.) and Spain (-5.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest tomato supplying countries worldwide were Mexico ($3.3B), the Netherlands ($1.8B) and Spain ($1.2B), with a combined 53% share of global exports. Morocco, France, Canada, the United States, Turkey, Iran and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Among the main exporting countries, Iran, with a CAGR of +37.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average tomato export price stood at $1,499 per ton in 2024, dropping by -4.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 when the average export price increased by 20%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $1,571 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($2,545 per ton), while Iran ($447 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (+5.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.