European Union's Tomato Market to Reach $31B on +1.6% CAGR Value Growth

IndexBox has just published a new report: EU - Tomatoes - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of the tomato market in the European Union for 2024, with forecasts to 2035. It details that consumption and production were approximately 16 million tons in 2024, with Italy and Spain as the dominant players. The market value was $26B, with a forecasted CAGR of +1.6% in value terms leading to $31B by 2035. The report covers per capita consumption, yield, harvested area, and a detailed breakdown of intra-EU trade, highlighting key importing (Germany, France) and exporting (Netherlands, Spain) nations, along with their respective price trends.

Key Findings

• EU tomato market value is forecast to grow at a +1.6% CAGR, reaching $31B by 2035
• Italy, Spain, and Portugal account for 68% of total EU tomato consumption by volume
• Germany and France are the largest importers, together representing 44% of intra-EU import volume
• The Netherlands and Spain are the leading exporters, constituting 59% of total EU exports
• Per capita consumption is highest in Portugal at 145 kg, significantly above the EU average

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for tomatoes in the European Union, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 17M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $31B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

European Union's Consumption of Tomatoes

In 2024, approx. 16M tons of tomatoes were consumed in the European Union; flattening at the previous year. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, consumption attained the peak volume at 18M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The size of the tomato market in the European Union contracted to $26B in 2024, declining by -8.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The level of consumption peaked at $28.5B in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Italy (6.2M tons), Spain (3.3M tons) and Portugal (1.5M tons), together accounting for 68% of total consumption.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Portugal (with a CAGR of +2.6%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest tomato markets in the European Union were Italy ($11.1B), Spain ($5.9B) and Germany ($2B), together accounting for 73% of the total market. France, Poland, Portugal and Greece lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

France, with a CAGR of +5.4%, saw the highest growth rate of market size among the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of tomato per capita consumption in 2024 were Portugal (145 kg per person), Italy (104 kg per person) and Greece (71 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Portugal (with a CAGR of +2.9%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

European Union's Production of Tomatoes

In 2024, the amount of tomatoes produced in the European Union reduced slightly to 16M tons, standing approx. at 2023 figures. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 9.3%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at 18M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and tangible growth in yield figures.

In value terms, tomato production declined to $25.6B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, production hit record highs at $28.6B in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Italy (6.1M tons), Spain (3.8M tons) and Portugal (1.7M tons), with a combined 73% share of total production.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by Portugal (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

In 2024, the average yield of tomatoes in the European Union was estimated at 73 tons per ha, approximately equating 2023. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the yield increased by 7.1%. The level of yield peaked at 77 tons per ha in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

The tomato harvested area shrank modestly to 215K ha in 2024, waning by -2.6% compared with the previous year. Over the period under review, the harvested area saw a mild downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 when the harvested area increased by 5.4%. The level of harvested area peaked at 276K ha in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2024, the harvested area remained at a lower figure.

Imports

European Union's Imports of Tomatoes

In 2024, approx. 3.1M tons of tomatoes were imported in the European Union; picking up by 11% against 2023. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, tomato imports amounted to $6.1B in 2024. Total imports indicated measured growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +48.5% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 with an increase of 20%. Over the period under review, imports attained the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Germany (741K tons) and France (615K tons) represented the major importers of tomatoes in the European Union, together mixing up 44% of total imports. It was distantly followed by the Netherlands (285K tons), Poland (243K tons), Spain (210K tons) and Italy (161K tons), together achieving a 29% share of total imports. Romania (102K tons), Bulgaria (98K tons), the Czech Republic (76K tons) and Sweden (76K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Bulgaria (with a CAGR of +9.8%), while imports for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest tomato importing markets in the European Union were Germany ($1.8B), France ($1.2B) and the Netherlands ($597M), together comprising 59% of total imports. Poland, Spain, Italy, Romania, Sweden, the Czech Republic and Bulgaria lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

Among the main importing countries, Bulgaria, with a CAGR of +14.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The import price in the European Union stood at $1,980 per ton in 2024, with a decrease of -8.9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.8%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2023 when the import price increased by 20%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $2,174 per ton, and then shrank in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($2,439 per ton), while Bulgaria ($1,039 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+6.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

European Union's Exports of Tomatoes

In 2024, tomato exports in the European Union expanded rapidly to 2.7M tons, increasing by 7.7% compared with the previous year's figure. Overall, exports, however, showed a slight decline. Over the period under review, the exports hit record highs at 3.1M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, the exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, tomato exports dropped slightly to $5.2B in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when exports increased by 17% against the previous year. As a result, the exports reached the peak of $5.3B, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2024, the Netherlands (938K tons) and Spain (675K tons) represented the main exporters of tomatoes in the European Union, together generating 59% of total exports. It was distantly followed by France (347K tons), Portugal (257K tons) and Belgium (186K tons), together making up a 29% share of total exports. The following exporters - Italy (79K tons) and Poland (78K tons) - each reached a 5.8% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Portugal (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the exports figures.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($2B), Spain ($1.2B) and France ($747M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, with a combined 78% share of total exports. Belgium, Italy, Portugal and Poland lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 16%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Portugal, with a CAGR of +14.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The export price in the European Union stood at $1,895 per ton in 2024, dropping by -10.1% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.3%. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2023 an increase of 17%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level of $2,109 per ton, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($2,892 per ton), while Portugal ($582 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Portugal (+5.3%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.