The U.S. to Dominate Global Almond Market

Other Tree And Bush Fruits And Nuts June 27, 2018
Author: Sergey Avramenko
Head of Global Markets Research Team

IndexBox has just published a new report "World: Almonds - Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2025". Here is a summary of the report’s key findings.

Global Almond Consumption Posted a Upward Trend 

From 2007 to 2016, the value of the global almond market showed a stable dynamic trend. However, in 2016, the value of the global almond market dropped to 9.0 billion USD. One of the main reasons for this can be explained by the favourable weather conditions prevalent in the USA, enabling almond production to increase significantly. In turn, this recent surge in supplies has had an impact on the movement of almond prices on the global market. 

According to IndexBox estimates, from 2007 to 2016 the global almond consumption in physical terms showed a positive dynamic, increasing from 927 thousand tonnes in 2007, to 1,307 thousand tonnes in 2016 (shelled almond weight). Consumption increased with a CAGR of +3.9% over the period under review.

Rising population and incomes, health awareness and the current demand for healthy food and for various different ingredients designed to be used for health and beauty purposes, all constitute the main driving force behind today's market. Therefore, the almond market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend, increasing with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8%, which will take the market volume to 1.68 million tonnes.

The U.S. Was a Leading Global Consumer Country of Almonds

The U.S. (309 thousand tonnes), was the country with the highest levels of consumption, accounting for 24% of global figures. It was followed by Spain (9%) and Iran (6%). In addition, the U.S. was the largest producer of almonds in the world.

In 2016, amongst the key consumer countries, Spain (2.7 kg per person) registered the highest per capita consumption figure. It was followed by the U.S. (1.0 kg per person) and Iran (1.0 kg/person). Per capita consumption in these countries was higher than the global average of 0.2 kg per person. While U.S. per capita consumption showed a significant growth, with a CAGR of +5.0%, Spanish and Iranian per capita consumption (+2.9%, and +2.8%, respectively) recorded a more moderate growth over the period under review.

Global Almond Production Expanded Moderately

The production of almonds reached 3,016 thousand tonnes (in-shell weight) in 2016, fluctuating mildly over the period under review. The overall trend pattern was upward, rising on average by +3.3% per year from 2007 to 2016. The harvested area in terms of almond orchards expanded slightly, reaching 1,416 thousand Ha worldwide.

The U.S. Will Continue to Dominate Global Almond Production, but Australia Posted Solid Gains

The U.S. was the key global almond producing country with an output of approx. 1,798 thousand tonnes (in-shell weight) in 2016, which accounted for 60% of the total output. The other major producers lagged far behind in terms of almond output: Spain (7%), Australia (6%), Iran (4%), Morocco (3%) and Turkey (3%). 

In the U.S., production levels increased by +4.5% annually from 2007 to 2016. U.S. almond cultivation is mainly centred in California – one of the world’s key almond producing regions. Meanwhile, in Australia the pace of growth was even more rapid: almond output expanded at an average annual rate of +12.5%, which can largely be attributed to the favourable growing conditions and the intense use of modern agricultural technology and equipment. Australian growers are focusing heavily on ensuring the expansion of the almond market and plan to increase the almond acreage; Australian output, therefore, is expected to continue to increase in the immediate term.

More than Half the Global Almond Output Is Intended for Exports

Almonds are a widely traded commodity, with the share of exports in total global output standing at approx. 57% in 2016. The high trade intensity is determined by the substantial distance of many of the consumer countries from the centres of almond production. 

The U.S. Remains the Main Global Supplier of Almonds

In 2016, global exports of shelled almonds amounted to 5.1 billion USD, expanding at an average annual rate of growth of +9.3%. The volume of global shelled almonds exports amounted to 750 thousand tonnes in 2016. There was an annual increase of +5.7%.

The U.S. (67%) was the main supplier of shelled almonds to the global market. From 2007 to 2016, average annual rates of growth of shelled almonds exports from the U.S. stood at +5.2%. Hovewer, the share of the U.S. declined slightly throughout the analyzed period, which was due to a surge in supplies from the other suppliers, primarily, from Australia.

Spain and Germany Were the Main Importers of Almonds

In value terms, global shelled almonds imports stood at 5.1 billion USD, a decrease of 16% against the previous year. In 2016, the volume of global shelled almonds imports amounted to 735 thousand tonnes; there was an annual increase of +6.0%.

In 2016, Spain (111 thousand tonnes) and Germany (86 thousand tonnes) were the main importing countries of shelled almonds in the world, together making up 27% of total imports. 

Amongst the major importing countries, Spain indicated the highest rates of growth in terms of imports, with an average annual increase of +6.9%. Germany illustrated a more moderate growth (+1.8%) over period under review.

Spain slightly strengthened its position in terms of global imports throughout the analyzed period, while the share of Germany (-5 percentage points) contracted from 2007 to 2016.

Do you want to know more about the global almond market? Get the latest trends and insight from our report. It includes a wide range of statistics on

  • almond market share
  • almond prices
  • almond industry
  • almond sales
  • almond import
  • almond export
  • almond market forecast
  • almond price forecast
  • key almond producers

Source: World: Almonds - Market Report. Analysis and Forecast to 2025