The Pandemic Undermines Robust Growth of the Global Ethanol Market

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Ethyl Alcohol - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The Global Ethanol Market to Languish in 2020 Due to the Contraction of Transport and Industrial Activity amid the Pandemic

In 2019, the global ethanol market increased by 2.6% to $79.9B, rising for the third year in a row after two years of decline. The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2007 to 2019; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. 

The largest ethanol markets worldwide were the U.S. ($31.6B), Brazil ($17.9B) and China ($7.9B), with a combined 72% share of the global market  (IndexBox estimates). India, Canada and Indonesia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 9.1%.

Ethyl alcohol is used for the manufacture of biofuels, and also serves as raw input for the production of a wide range of chemicals (ethylene, acetaldehyde, diethyl ether, ethyl acetate, etc.). Ethyl alcohol is also widely used in the paint and varnish industry, in the production of household chemical goods and especially widely in healthcare and in the pharmaceutical industry. Since the scope of application of ethyl alcohol is very wide, the dynamics of the world market for ethyl alcohol as a whole is determined by the growth of the world economy.

Until 2020, the global economy has been developing steadily for five years, although at a slower pace than in the previous decade. The slowdown in global economic growth was caused by a slowdown in the world's economy, increased political uncertainty in the world, and trade wars between the United States and China. According to the World Bank outlook from January 2020, the global economy was expected to pick up the growth momentum and increase by from +2.5% to +2.7% per year in the medium term.

In early 2020, however, the global economy entered a period of the crisis caused by the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. In order to battle the spread of the virus, most countries in the world implemented quarantine measures that put on halt production and transport activity. The result will be a drop in GDP relative to previous years and a sharp fall in the demand for oil, which led to extremely low prices and heavy oil production cuts. The combination of those factors disrupts economic growth heavily throughout the world. 

According to World Bank forecasts, despite the gradual relaxing of restrictive measures and unprecedented government support in countries that faced the pandemic in early 2020, the annual decline of global GDP could amount to -5.2%, which is the deepest global recession being seen over the past eight decades. 

Taking into account the above, it is expected that in 2020 and the next few years, global consumption of ethyl alcohol should decline somewhat against 2019. The decrease in transport activity particularly hampers the global ethanol market as ethyl alcohol is widely used to produce biofuel. In the medium term, as the global economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually. 

Overall, market performance is forecast to pursue a slightly upward trend over the next decade, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.3% for the period from 2019 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 108M tonnes by the end of 2030.

The U.S. Remains the Largest Supplier of Ethanol to the Global Market

After four years of growth, shipments abroad of ethyl alcohol decreased by -2% to 12M tonnes in 2019. Overall, total exports indicated a remarkable increase from 2007 to 2019: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last twelve-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. In value terms, ethanol exports rose slightly to $8.6B (IndexBox estimates) in 2019. 

In 2019, the U.S. (3.9M tonnes) was the key exporter of ethyl alcohol, generating 33% of total exports. Brazil (1,544K tonnes) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 13% share, followed by the Netherlands (11%), France (6%), Pakistan (5%) and Hungary (4.5%). Belgium (454K tonnes), Germany (376K tonnes), Spain (272K tonnes), South Africa (221K tonnes) and Guatemala (193K tonnes) occupied a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2019, average annual rates of growth with regard to ethanol exports from the U.S. stood at +19.7%. At the same time, Hungary (+21.9%), the Netherlands (+11.5%), Germany (+9.0%), Pakistan (+8.1%), Belgium (+7.1%), South Africa (+6.3%), Spain (+5.3%), France (+4.6%) and Guatemala (+4.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Hungary emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +21.9% from 2007-2019. By contrast, Brazil (-1.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. 

In value terms, the U.S. ($2.4B) remains the largest ethanol supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by the Netherlands ($1B), with a 12% share of global exports. It was followed by Brazil, with a 12% share.

In 2019, the average ethanol export price amounted to $724 per tonne, with an increase of 4.2% against the previous year. In general, the export price, however, saw a slight decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2011 when the average export price increased by 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average export prices attained the peak figure at $1,034 per tonne in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2019, export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was Spain ($916 per tonne), while Pakistan ($544 per tonne) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2019, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium, while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox AI Platform