Uncured Cheese Market

The global market for unripened or uncured cheese is projected to see growth in both volume and value terms from 2022 to 2030, with a CAGR of +2.2% and +4.2% respectively. The highest consuming countries in 2022 were the United States, Russia, and Italy, while the largest exporters included Germany, Italy, and Denmark. Key production statistics also indicate growth trends, with notable fluctuations in certain years. Overall, the market is expected to continue its expansion in the near future.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for unripened or uncured cheese worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 11M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $51.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Unripened or Uncured Cheese

After six years of growth, consumption of unripened or uncured cheese decreased by -2.9% to 9.4M tons in 2022. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the consumption volume increased by 8.4% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 9.7M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

The global uncured cheese market size declined slightly to $37B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level at $37B in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were the United States (1.9M tons), Russia (1.4M tons) and Italy (1M tons), with a combined 46% share of global consumption. Germany, the UK, Poland, France, the Netherlands, Egypt, Australia, Argentina, Spain and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +22.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($7.8B), Italy ($5.6B) and Russia ($3.5B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 46% share of the global market. The Netherlands, the UK, Germany, France, Poland, Egypt, Australia, Spain, Argentina and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +25.0%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of uncured cheese per capita consumption in 2022 were the Netherlands (22 kg per person), Italy (17 kg per person) and Poland (11 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +21.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Unripened or Uncured Cheese

In 2022, production of unripened or uncured cheese decreased by -1.3% to 9.7M tons for the first time since 2018, thus ending a three-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 9.8M tons in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

In value terms, uncured cheese production amounted to $36.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (2M tons), Russia (1.4M tons) and Italy (1.1M tons), with a combined 46% share of global production. Germany, Poland, France, Australia, the UK, the Netherlands, Egypt, Argentina, Denmark and Saudi Arabia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by the Netherlands (with a CAGR of +44.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Unripened or Uncured Cheese

After ten years of growth, supplies from abroad of unripened or uncured cheese decreased by -4.1% to 2.1M tons in 2022. Overall, total imports indicated tangible growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +59.0% against 2012 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 8.9%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 2.2M tons in 2021, and then contracted modestly in the following year.

In value terms, uncured cheese imports rose rapidly to $9B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated prominent growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +68.0% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Italy (230K tons), the UK (175K tons), Germany (173K tons), the Netherlands (158K tons), France (148K tons), Belgium (142K tons), Spain (113K tons), South Korea (100K tons), Japan (77K tons), China (60K tons), Romania (52K tons) and Austria (48K tons) represented the key importer of unripened or uncured cheese in the world, constituting 69% of total import. Sweden (40K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for China (with a CAGR of +17.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest uncured cheese importing markets worldwide were Italy ($989M), France ($727M) and the UK ($695M), with a combined 27% share of global imports. Germany, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, South Korea, Japan, China, Romania, Austria and Sweden lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 43%.

Among the main importing countries, China, with a CAGR of +18.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average uncured cheese import price amounted to $4,215 per ton, rising by 16% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.2%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($4,903 per ton), while the Netherlands ($3,248 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Unripened or Uncured Cheese

In 2022, approx. 2.4M tons of unripened or uncured cheese were exported worldwide; picking up by 2.6% on the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 8.7% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, uncured cheese exports surged to $10.3B in 2022. Overall, total exports indicated a prominent increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +6.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +78.3% against 2015 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 22% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Germany (592K tons), distantly followed by Italy (271K tons), Denmark (210K tons), France (197K tons), Belgium (127K tons), Poland (123K tons) and the United States (120K tons) represented the largest exporters of unripened or uncured cheese, together creating 67% of total exports. The following exporters - Belarus (103K tons), the Netherlands (93K tons), Australia (90K tons), New Zealand (67K tons), the UK (54K tons) and Spain (42K tons) - together made up 18% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to uncured cheese exports from Germany stood at +4.3%. At the same time, Belgium (+20.1%), the Netherlands (+16.6%), Poland (+10.7%), Belarus (+10.2%), Italy (+8.9%), Spain (+7.7%), the United States (+5.9%), Denmark (+5.4%), New Zealand (+2.9%), Australia (+2.7%) and the UK (+1.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Belgium emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.1% from 2012-2022. By contrast, France (-1.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Belgium, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Belarus increased by +3.9, +3.4, +2.5, +2.1 and +1.6 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Germany ($2.3B), Italy ($1.6B) and Denmark ($824M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 46% share of global exports. The United States, France, Belgium, the Netherlands, Poland, Australia, New Zealand, Belarus, the UK and Spain lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 39%.

The Netherlands, with a CAGR of +20.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average uncured cheese export price stood at $4,218 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 14% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.3%. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($5,842 per ton), while France ($2,837 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+3.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform