Sugar Cane Market

Global sugar cane market is forecasted to continue on an upward trend in both consumption and production over the next eight years. Consumption in 2022 saw an increase after two years of decline, with Brazil, India, and China leading in consumption volume. Production in 2022 also increased after two years of decline, with Brazil, India, and China being the top producers. Imports and exports of sugar cane have seen significant growth, with China being the largest importer and Myanmar the largest exporter. Key market trends include stable average prices and growth in value terms for key market players.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for sugar cane worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1,996M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5,174.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Sugar Cane

In 2022, consumption of sugar cane was finally on the rise to reach 1,924M tons after two years of decline. Over the period under review, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 with an increase of 4.7% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 1,958M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global sugar cane market revenue reached $4,446.8B in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $4,689.7B in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Brazil (724M tons), India (439M tons) and China (106M tons), with a combined 66% share of global consumption. Thailand, Pakistan, Mexico, Colombia, Indonesia and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +4.2%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($3,771.6B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($146.8B). It was followed by Colombia.

In Brazil, the sugar cane market remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+0.9% per year) and Colombia (-0.6% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of sugar cane per capita consumption was registered in Brazil (3,364 kg per person), followed by Thailand (1,314 kg per person), Colombia (680 kg per person) and Mexico (420 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of sugar cane was estimated at 245 kg per person.

In Brazil, sugar cane per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Thailand (-1.0% per year) and Colombia (-0.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Sugar Cane

In 2022, production of sugar cane was finally on the rise to reach 1,922M tons after two years of decline. Over the period under review, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 4.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 1,956M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sugar cane production dropped slightly to $1,849.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production showed a prominent expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 2,833%. Over the period under review, global production reached the peak level at $20,723.8B in 2017; however, from 2018 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Brazil (724M tons), India (439M tons) and China (103M tons), together accounting for 66% of global production. Thailand, Pakistan, Mexico, Colombia, Indonesia and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 17%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Pakistan (with a CAGR of +4.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average sugar cane yield reached 74 tons per ha in 2022, growing by 2% compared with 2021 figures. Overall, the yield saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the yield increased by 3.8%. The global yield peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the global harvested area of sugar cane totaled 26M ha, approximately mirroring 2021 figures. Overall, the harvested area recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 3.2%. The global harvested area peaked at 27M ha in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the harvested area failed to regain momentum.

Imports

World Imports of Sugar Cane

In 2022, supplies from abroad of sugar cane increased by 21% to 2.2M tons, rising for the sixth consecutive year after two years of decline. In general, imports saw buoyant growth. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, sugar cane imports surged to $145M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports recorded a buoyant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 with an increase of 22% against the previous year. Global imports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the one major importers of sugar cane, namely China, represented more than two-thirds of total import.

China was also the fastest-growing in terms of the sugar cane imports, with a CAGR of +10.1% from 2012 to 2022. While the share of China (+3.6 p.p.) increased significantly, the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($130M) constitutes the largest market for imported sugar cane worldwide.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China amounted to +10.1%.

Import Prices By Country

The average sugar cane import price stood at $67 per ton in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the average import price increased by 9.3%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $74 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices remained at a lower figure.

As there is only one major supplying country, the average price level is determined by prices for China.

From 2012 to 2022, the rate of growth in terms of prices for China amounted to -0.2% per year.

Exports

World Exports of Sugar Cane

In 2022, approx. 346K tons of sugar cane were exported worldwide; with an increase of 52% compared with 2021 figures. In general, exports recorded a significant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 with an increase of 275%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, sugar cane exports expanded notably to $93M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports continue to indicate resilient growth. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when exports increased by 77% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Myanmar (249K tons) represented the largest exporter of sugar cane, achieving 72% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Lao People's Democratic Republic (73K tons), comprising a 21% share of total exports. Malaysia (7.8K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Myanmar was also the fastest-growing in terms of the sugar cane exports, with a CAGR of +106.0% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Lao People's Democratic Republic (+10.7%) displayed positive paces of growth. By contrast, Malaysia (-2.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of Myanmar and Malaysia increased by +72 and +2.3 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, Lao People's Democratic Republic ($63M) remains the largest sugar cane supplier worldwide, comprising 68% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Myanmar ($18M), with a 19% share of global exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in Lao People's Democratic Republic amounted to +16.8%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Myanmar (+83.3% per year) and Malaysia (+2.0% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average sugar cane export price stood at $269 per ton in 2022, reducing by -27.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price saw a deep setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the average export price increased by 89%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $543 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Lao People's Democratic Republic ($869 per ton), while Myanmar ($71 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Lao People's Democratic Republic (+5.5%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform