Soybean Oil Market

The article discusses the current and projected trends in the global soybean oil market from 2022 to 2030. Despite a slight decline in consumption in 2022, the market is expected to grow consistently with China, the United States, and Brazil leading in consumption. Production and exports are also analyzed, with Argentina, Brazil, and the United States being the major exporters. Crude soybean oil remains the dominant export product in the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for soybean oil worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 78M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $91.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Soybean Oil

Global soybean oil consumption fell slightly to 58M tons in 2022, waning by -2% compared with 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 60M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global soybean oil market size stood at $57.4B in 2022, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.0% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market attained the peak level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (16M tons), the United States (11M tons) and Brazil (7.4M tons), with a combined 59% share of global consumption. India, Argentina, Bangladesh, Mexico and Algeria lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 20%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Algeria (with a CAGR of +6.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($16.5B), the United States ($8.9B) and India ($7B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 56% share of the global market.

India, with a CAGR of +6.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of soybean oil per capita consumption was registered in Argentina (70 kg per person), followed by Brazil (34 kg per person), the United States (32 kg per person) and Algeria (19 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of soybean oil was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the soybean oil per capita consumption in Argentina stood at +1.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Brazil (+2.7% per year) and the United States (+2.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Soybean Oil

In 2022, the amount of soybean oil produced worldwide shrank to 58M tons, remaining constant against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 8.6% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 59M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, soybean oil production amounted to $48.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a mild reduction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $56.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (16M tons), the United States (11M tons) and Brazil (10M tons), with a combined 64% share of global production. Argentina, India and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 17%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +10.3%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Soybean Oil

In 2022, after three years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of soybean oil, when their volume decreased by -5.1% to 12M tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2015 with an increase of 21% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 13M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, soybean oil imports rose rapidly to $18.4B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a measured expansion. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 60%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

India represented the key importing country with an import of around 3.9M tons, which accounted for 31% of total imports. Algeria (887K tons) ranks second in terms of the total imports with a 7.1% share, followed by Bangladesh (5.9%). Morocco (525K tons), Peru (486K tons), South Korea (370K tons), China (344K tons), Colombia (281K tons), Poland (228K tons), Nepal (216K tons), Pakistan (211K tons), the UK (199K tons) and Spain (198K tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to soybean oil imports into India stood at +13.6%. At the same time, Spain (+26.8%), Pakistan (+16.2%), Poland (+12.6%), Nepal (+7.3%), Algeria (+6.6%), Peru (+3.5%), Morocco (+3.0%), the UK (+2.5%) and Colombia (+1.6%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Spain emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +26.8% from 2012-2022. South Korea and Bangladesh experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, China (-15.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. India (+20 p.p.) and Algeria (+2.3 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Bangladesh and China saw its share reduced by -1.9% and -15.9% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($6.1B) constitutes the largest market for imported soybean oil worldwide, comprising 33% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Algeria ($868M), with a 4.7% share of global imports. It was followed by Morocco, with a 4.4% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in India amounted to +16.0%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Algeria (+4.2% per year) and Morocco (+5.3% per year).

Imports By Type

Crude soybean oil was the largest imported product with an import of about 10M tons, which finished at 83% of total imports. It was distantly followed by refined soybean oil and its fractions (2.1M tons), creating a 17% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to crude soybean oil imports of stood at +1.8%. At the same time, refined soybean oil and its fractions (+3.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, refined soybean oil and its fractions emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +3.5% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of refined soybean oil and its fractions increased by +2.2 percentage points.

In value terms, crude soybean oil ($15.2B) constitutes the largest type of soybean oil imported worldwide, comprising 81% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by refined soybean oil and its fractions ($3.5B), with a 19% share of global imports.

For crude soybean oil, imports increased at an average annual rate of +4.1% over the period from 2012-2022.

Import Prices By Type

The average soybean oil import price stood at $1,472 per ton in 2022, surging by 19% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, soybean oil import price increased by +100.5% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 54%. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was refined soybean oil and its fractions ($1,678 per ton), while the price for crude soybean oil totaled $1,516 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by refined soybean oil (+2.3%).

Import Prices By Country

The average soybean oil import price stood at $1,472 per ton in 2022, jumping by 19% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, soybean oil import price increased by +100.5% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 54% against the previous year. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was South Korea ($1,665 per ton), while Bangladesh ($934 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Soybean Oil

In 2022, overseas shipments of soybean oil decreased by -0.1% to 12M tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 24%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 13M tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, soybean oil exports soared to $18.8B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, saw perceptible growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 55%. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, Argentina (4.3M tons), distantly followed by Brazil (2.6M tons), the United States (0.6M tons), the Netherlands (0.6M tons) and Bolivia (0.6M tons) represented the largest exporters of soybean oil, together mixing up 70% of total exports. Spain (381K tons), Paraguay (371K tons), Turkey (311K tons), Russia (266K tons), Ukraine (238K tons) and Italy (198K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +57.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest soybean oil supplying countries worldwide were Argentina ($6.2B), Brazil ($3.9B) and the United States ($1B), together comprising 60% of global exports. The Netherlands, Bolivia, Spain, Paraguay, Turkey, Russia, Italy and Ukraine lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Turkey, with a CAGR of +58.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

In 2022, crude soybean oil (10M tons) was the main type of soybean oil, generating 84% of total exports. It was distantly followed by refined soybean oil and its fractions (2M tons), achieving a 16% share of total exports.

Exports of crude soybean oil increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, refined soybean oil and its fractions (+3.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, refined soybean oil and its fractions emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +3.3% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of refined soybean oil and its fractions increased by +1.6 percentage points.

In value terms, crude soybean oil ($15.2B) remains the largest type of soybean oil supplied worldwide, comprising 81% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by refined soybean oil and its fractions ($3.5B), with a 19% share of global exports.

For crude soybean oil, exports expanded at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2012-2022.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average soybean oil export price amounted to $1,514 per ton, increasing by 27% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a pronounced increase. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 59%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was refined soybean oil and its fractions ($1,734 per ton), while the average price for exports of crude soybean oil stood at $1,471 per ton.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by crude soybean oil (+2.4%).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average soybean oil export price amounted to $1,514 per ton, surging by 27% against the previous year. Overall, the export price enjoyed a perceptible expansion. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 59%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in the United States ($1,594 per ton) and Italy ($1,573 per ton), while Ukraine ($1,284 per ton) and Paraguay ($1,438 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+2.7%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform