Refined Soybean Oil Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the global refined soybean oil market, projecting an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. By 2030, the market volume is expected to reach 8.9M tons, with a forecasted CAGR of +0.7%. In value terms, the market is projected to increase to $13.3B by 2030. Key findings include the decline in global consumption in 2022, led by China as the largest consumer. The article also covers production, imports, and exports of refined soybean oil, highlighting trends in major exporting countries such as the Netherlands, Argentina, and Brazil.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for refined soybean oil worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +0.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 8.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $13.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Refined Soybean Oil And Its Fractions

Global refined soybean oil consumption declined slightly to 8.4M tons in 2022, shrinking by -4.9% against the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a slight contraction. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 11M tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global refined soybean oil market size fell slightly to $10.4B in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption continues to indicate a perceptible shrinkage. Global consumption peaked at $13B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (1.5M tons) remains the largest refined soybean oil consuming country worldwide, accounting for 17% of total volume. Moreover, refined soybean oil consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (691K tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by India (528K tons), with a 6.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China was relatively modest. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (-6.9% per year) and India (-1.2% per year).

In value terms, China ($1.5B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($741M). It was followed by India.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China stood at -2.3%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (-8.5% per year) and India (-4.3% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of refined soybean oil per capita consumption in 2022 were Chile (8.5 kg per person), the UK (4.5 kg per person) and Canada (4.5 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Chile (with a CAGR of +15.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Refined Soybean Oil And Its Fractions

In 2022, global refined soybean oil production fell to 8.3M tons, declining by -2% compared with the year before. Overall, production showed a mild decline. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 31% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 11M tons. From 2016 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, refined soybean oil production fell modestly to $9.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production recorded a pronounced shrinkage. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 19%. Global production peaked at $13.6B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of refined soybean oil production was China (1.5M tons), accounting for 18% of total volume. Moreover, refined soybean oil production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (724K tons), twofold. India (457K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.5% share.

In China, refined soybean oil production remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-7.0% per year) and India (-2.6% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Refined Soybean Oil And Its Fractions

In 2022, purchases abroad of refined soybean oil and its fractions decreased by -7.9% to 2.1M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when imports increased by 17%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 2.2M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

In value terms, refined soybean oil imports reached $3.5B in 2022. In general, imports, however, saw buoyant growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 59%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of refined soybean oil imports in 2022 were Chile (162K tons), the UK (123K tons), Angola (118K tons), Venezuela (115K tons), Canada (104K tons), Mauritania (102K tons), the United States (94K tons), Peru (85K tons), India (85K tons), the Philippines (60K tons), Belgium (54K tons) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (48K tons), together accounting for 56% of total import. Hong Kong SAR (47K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +128.4%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest refined soybean oil importing markets worldwide were Chile ($288M), Angola ($228M) and the UK ($206M), together accounting for 21% of global imports. Canada, the United States, India, Venezuela, Peru, Mauritania, the Philippines, Belgium, Hong Kong SAR and Democratic People's Republic of Korea lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Among the main importing countries, India, with a CAGR of +111.2%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average refined soybean oil import price stood at $1,678 per ton in 2022, increasing by 17% against the previous year. In general, import price indicated pronounced growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined soybean oil import price increased by +88.7% against 2019 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 48%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Angola ($1,925 per ton), while Democratic People's Republic of Korea ($1,106 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mauritania (+14.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Refined Soybean Oil And Its Fractions

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded growth in shipments abroad of refined soybean oil and its fractions, which increased by 3.9% to 2M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 14%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, refined soybean oil exports surged to $3.5B in 2022. Overall, exports enjoyed prominent growth. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 46% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (298K tons), Argentina (224K tons) and Brazil (202K tons) represented the key exporter of refined soybean oil and its fractions in the world, generating 36% of total export. The United States (127K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 6.2% share, followed by Malaysia (5.7%), Thailand (5.4%), Bolivia (4.9%) and Canada (4.7%). The following exporters - China (87K tons), Nepal (84K tons), Colombia (57K tons), Germany (55K tons) and Portugal (37K tons) - together made up 16% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Thailand (with a CAGR of +27.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the Netherlands ($443M), Brazil ($367M) and Argentina ($364M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 33% of global exports. The United States, Malaysia, Nepal, Thailand, Canada, Bolivia, China, Colombia, Germany and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 44%.

Among the main exporting countries, Thailand, with a CAGR of +28.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average refined soybean oil export price amounted to $1,734 per ton, increasing by 27% against the previous year. Overall, export price indicated a tangible increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, refined soybean oil export price increased by +95.8% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 44% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Nepal ($2,236 per ton), while the Netherlands ($1,485 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform