Passenger Car Market

The article provides insights into the global passenger car market, with forecasts indicating an upward trend in consumption and market value. Analysis of key consuming countries such as China, India, and the United States is included, as well as trends in production, imports, and exports. The report highlights the growth rates, market sizes, and per capita consumption levels, offering valuable information for industry stakeholders and investors.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for passenger cars worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 118M units by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $2,310.5B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Passenger Cars

Global passenger car consumption reduced modestly to 94M units in 2022, with a decrease of -3.3% on the year before. Overall, consumption, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 105M units. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the global consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global passenger car market value shrank rapidly to $1,593.3B in 2022, which is down by -22.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption recorded a abrupt curtailment. Global consumption peaked at $5,333.5B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (17M units), India (13M units) and the United States (8.6M units), with a combined 42% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +17.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Oman ($294.4B), the United States ($219.8B) and Mexico ($134.1B) were the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 41% share of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Oman, with a CAGR of +61.7%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of passenger car per capita consumption was registered in Oman (1,390 units per 1000 persons), followed by Canada (44 units per 1000 persons), the UK (44 units per 1000 persons) and Germany (37 units per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of passenger car was estimated at 12 units per 1000 persons.

In Oman, passenger car per capita consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Canada (-0.7% per year) and the UK (+4.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Passenger Cars

In 2022, after two years of decline, there was growth in production of passenger cars, when its volume increased by 1% to 92M units. Over the period under review, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 252%. As a result, production reached the peak volume of 420M units. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, passenger car production totaled $1,297.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production posted a mild expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 264%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $5,614.3B. From 2017 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (21M units), India (14M units) and Japan (8M units), with a combined 48% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the key producing countries, was attained by India (with a CAGR of +15.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Passenger Cars

In 2022, approx. 39M units of passenger cars were imported worldwide; waning by -1.8% compared with the year before. In general, imports, however, showed a slight increase. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 19%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure at 40M units in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, passenger car imports rose markedly to $799.7B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 12%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (6.4M units), distantly followed by Germany (2.9M units), Pakistan (2.7M units) and the UK (2.6M units) represented the main importers of passenger cars, together generating 38% of total imports. France (1.7M units), Belgium (1.5M units), Canada (1.2M units), Italy (1.2M units), the United Arab Emirates (1.1M units), Mexico (1.1M units), China (0.9M units), Australia (0.9M units) and Spain (0.9M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of passenger cars. At the same time, Pakistan (+10.4%), the United Arab Emirates (+9.6%), Spain (+4.5%), the UK (+3.1%), Mexico (+2.9%), Germany (+2.2%) and Belgium (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Pakistan emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.4% from 2012-2022. France, Australia, Italy and Canada experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, China (-2.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of Pakistan (+4.2 p.p.) and the United Arab Emirates (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of the United States (-2.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($166B) constitutes the largest market for imported passenger cars worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($68.5B), with an 8.6% share of global imports. It was followed by China, with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States totaled +1.1%. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+5.0% per year) and China (+1.7% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average passenger car import price amounted to $20,554 per unit, picking up by 9.6% against the previous year. Over the period from 2012 to 2022, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.1%. As a result, import price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($60,729 per unit), while Pakistan ($628 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by China (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Passenger Cars

In 2022, shipments abroad of passenger cars increased by 9.9% to 37M units, rising for the second consecutive year after two years of decline. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 372%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 354M units. From 2017 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, passenger car exports stood at $794.1B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 11%. Over the period under review, the global exports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the three major exporters of passenger cars, namely China, Germany and Japan, represented more than third of total export. The United States (2.4M units) held the next position in the ranking, followed by South Korea (1.8M units) and Spain (1.8M units). All these countries together held approx. 16% share of total exports. Belgium (1.5M units), the Czech Republic (1.3M units), Canada (1.2M units), Slovakia (1.1M units), France (1.1M units), India (1M units) and the UK (0.8M units) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +16.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($155.9B), Japan ($86.6B) and the United States ($58.6B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 38% of global exports. South Korea, China, Belgium, Spain, Canada, the UK, Slovakia, the Czech Republic, France and India lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 38%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, China, with a CAGR of +25.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average passenger car export price stood at $21,538 per unit in 2022, stabilizing at the previous year. In general, the export price, however, posted pronounced growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 963% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $21,589 per unit in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($36,735 per unit), while India ($6,480 per unit) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by South Korea (+7.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform