Natural Calcium And Aluminium Phosphates Market

The global market for natural calcium and aluminium phosphates is expected to see growth in both consumption and value terms over the next decade. China leads in both consumption and production, with India as the largest importer. Significant fluctuations in production and consumption have been noted over the past decade, with some countries experiencing modest growth while others saw declines. Prices for both imports and exports are on the rise, indicating a positive trend in the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for natural calcium and aluminium phosphates worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 535M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +5.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $84.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Natural Calcium Phosphates, Natural Aluminium Calcium Phosphates And Phosphatic Chalk

Global natural calcium and aluminium phosphates consumption amounted to 384M tons in 2022, growing by 3.5% against 2021. In general, the total consumption indicated resilient growth from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, consumption decreased by -1.2% against 2020 indices. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 389M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The revenue of the market for natural calcium and aluminium phosphates worldwide was estimated at $53.8B in 2022, growing by 2.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market reached the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (234M tons) remains the largest natural calcium and aluminium phosphates consuming country worldwide, accounting for 61% of total volume. Moreover, natural calcium and aluminium phosphates consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (30M tons), eightfold. Morocco (26M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +9.4%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (-0.9% per year) and Morocco (+3.7% per year).

In value terms, China ($25.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($12.8B). It was followed by Morocco.

In China, the natural calcium and aluminium phosphates market expanded at an average annual rate of +5.8% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: the United States (+0.4% per year) and Morocco (+1.4% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of natural calcium and aluminium phosphates per capita consumption was registered in Morocco (679 kg per person), followed by Peru (250 kg per person), Saudi Arabia (212 kg per person) and China (165 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of natural calcium and aluminium phosphates was estimated at 49 kg per person.

In Morocco, natural calcium and aluminium phosphates per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Peru (+0.9% per year) and Saudi Arabia (+14.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Natural Calcium Phosphates, Natural Aluminium Calcium Phosphates And Phosphatic Chalk

In 2022, approx. 380M tons of natural calcium and aluminium phosphates were produced worldwide; picking up by 2.3% compared with the year before. In general, the total production indicated a resilient increase from 2012 to 2022: its volume increased at an average annual rate of +5.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production decreased by -1.5% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 386M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, natural calcium and aluminium phosphates production contracted to $49.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, the total production indicated a pronounced increase from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, production increased by +6.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when the production volume increased by 88%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $62.4B. From 2016 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

China (234M tons) remains the largest natural calcium and aluminium phosphates producing country worldwide, comprising approx. 62% of total volume. Moreover, natural calcium and aluminium phosphates production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Morocco (31M tons), eightfold. The United States (27M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.1% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China amounted to +9.4%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Morocco (+1.4% per year) and the United States (-1.1% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Natural Calcium Phosphates, Natural Aluminium Calcium Phosphates And Phosphatic Chalk

In 2022, approx. 27M tons of natural calcium and aluminium phosphates were imported worldwide; which is down by -10.7% on the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports saw a mild curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 8.8%. Global imports peaked at 31M tons in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, natural calcium and aluminium phosphates imports surged to $5.5B in 2022. Overall, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum at $5.6B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports By Country

India represented the major importer of natural calcium and aluminium phosphates in the world, with the volume of imports amounting to 9.2M tons, which was near 34% of total imports in 2022. The United States (2.5M tons) took a 9.2% share (based on physical terms) of total imports, which put it in second place, followed by Brazil (7.1%) and Indonesia (4.8%). Mexico (1,180K tons), Turkey (874K tons), Belgium (786K tons), New Zealand (646K tons), Russia (573K tons), South Korea (542K tons), Serbia (530K tons), Bulgaria (498K tons) and Norway (471K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

Imports into India decreased at an average annual rate of -1.1% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Serbia (+20.0%), Russia (+6.3%), Brazil (+4.3%), Indonesia (+2.7%) and Turkey (+2.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Serbia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +20.0% from 2012-2022. New Zealand, the United States and Bulgaria experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, South Korea (-1.1%), Belgium (-2.7%), Mexico (-3.2%) and Norway (-3.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Brazil (+3 p.p.), Serbia (+1.7 p.p.) and Indonesia (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, India ($1.9B) constitutes the largest market for imported natural calcium and aluminium phosphates worldwide, comprising 34% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by Brazil ($341M), with a 6.2% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 5.3% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in India was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+5.2% per year) and the United States (-3.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for natural calcium and aluminium phosphates amounted to $201 per ton, growing by 68% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a mild expansion. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Norway ($362 per ton), while Serbia ($67 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+11.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Natural Calcium Phosphates, Natural Aluminium Calcium Phosphates And Phosphatic Chalk

In 2022, approx. 23M tons of natural calcium and aluminium phosphates were exported worldwide; declining by -25.2% on the previous year's figure. Overall, exports recorded a mild descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 13%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 31M tons, and then plummeted in the following year.

In value terms, natural calcium and aluminium phosphates exports soared to $4.7B in 2022. In general, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Jordan (5.3M tons), Morocco (5.3M tons) and Peru (4.2M tons), together amounting to 64% of total export. Algeria (2M tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Togo (1.6M tons) and Russia (1.1M tons). All these countries together took near 20% share of total exports. Syrian Arab Republic (785K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Togo (with a CAGR of +5.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Morocco ($1.3B), Jordan ($1.1B) and Peru ($501M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 61% share of global exports. Russia, Algeria, Togo and Syrian Arab Republic lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Togo, with a CAGR of +9.0%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for natural calcium and aluminium phosphates amounted to $201 per ton, rising by 91% against the previous year. In general, the export price posted a tangible expansion. As a result, the export price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($333 per ton), while Syrian Arab Republic ($79 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Morocco (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform