Methanol Market

The global methanol market is expected to see an upward consumption trend from 2022 to 2030, with China leading in methanol consumption and the United States, Saudi Arabia, and Trinidad and Tobago dominating production and exports. The market volume is projected to increase by a CAGR of +3.1%, reaching 73M tons by 2030. In value terms, the market is forecast to grow to $12,817.4B by the end of 2030. Methanol consumption decreased in 2022 but had seen consistent growth in previous years. China is the largest methanol consumer, with the United States and India following. Methanol production decreased in 2022 but had grown at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022. The United States, Saudi Arabia, and Trinidad and Tobago were the top producing countries. Global methanol imports and exports showed fluctuations but overall growth from 2012 to 2022. China was the largest methanol importer, while Trinidad and Tobago, Saudi Arabia, and the United States were the top exporters. Average methanol prices also showed fluctuations over the years, with differences among major importing and exporting countries.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for methanol (methyl alcohol) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +3.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 73M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of -5.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $12,817.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)

In 2022, consumption of methanol (methyl alcohol) decreased by -0.2% to 58M tons, falling for the third year in a row after four years of growth. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at 59M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global methanol market size skyrocketed to $19,488.4B in 2022, picking up by 558% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, saw a prominent increase. As a result, consumption reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Consumption By Country

China (13M tons) remains the largest methanol consuming country worldwide, accounting for 23% of total volume. Moreover, methanol consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, the United States (4.7M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by India (2.8M tons), with a 4.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China stood at +6.6%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: the United States (+1.3% per year) and India (+8.5% per year).

In value terms, China ($4.4B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($1.6B). It was followed by India.

In China, the methanol market expanded at an average annual rate of +5.9% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+1.0% per year) and India (+8.5% per year).

In 2022, the highest levels of methanol per capita consumption was registered in Qatar (366 kg per person), followed by the Netherlands (99 kg per person), South Korea (39 kg per person) and Germany (24 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of methanol was estimated at 7.3 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the methanol per capita consumption in Qatar totaled -8.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the Netherlands (+14.3% per year) and South Korea (+1.6% per year).

Production

World Production of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)

In 2022, production of methanol (methyl alcohol) decreased by -2% to 54M tons, falling for the third year in a row after three years of growth. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 20% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 56M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, methanol production surged to $19,610.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production, however, enjoyed a resilient increase. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 498%. Global production peaked at $24,851.7B in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (6.6M tons), Saudi Arabia (5.1M tons) and Trinidad and Tobago (4.7M tons), together comprising 30% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +75.4%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)

In 2022, global imports of methanol (methyl alcohol) shrank slightly to 37M tons, approximately mirroring 2021 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 15%. Global imports peaked at 37M tons in 2021, and then contracted slightly in the following year.

In value terms, methanol imports amounted to $14.2B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.0% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +70.3% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when imports increased by 69% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

China was the main importer of methanol (methyl alcohol) in the world, with the volume of imports amounting to 12M tons, which was near 33% of total imports in 2022. India (2.8M tons) took the second position in the ranking, followed by the Netherlands (2.7M tons), South Korea (2M tons) and Japan (1.7M tons). All these countries together held near 25% share of total imports. The following importers - Germany (1.5M tons), Brazil (1.3M tons), the United States (1.3M tons), Belgium (1M tons), Indonesia (1M tons), Poland (0.9M tons), Thailand (0.8M tons) and Taiwan (Chinese) (0.7M tons) - together made up 23% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to methanol imports into China stood at +9.3%. At the same time, Indonesia (+13.9%), Poland (+9.8%), Brazil (+7.7%), India (+7.0%), Thailand (+3.1%), Belgium (+2.8%), the Netherlands (+2.6%) and South Korea (+2.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Indonesia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.9% from 2012-2022. Germany and Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Taiwan (Chinese) (-5.2%) and the United States (-11.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+15 p.p.), India (+2.5 p.p.) and Indonesia (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Taiwan (Chinese) and the United States saw its share reduced by -2.4% and -12.1% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($4.2B) constitutes the largest market for imported methanol (methyl alcohol) worldwide, comprising 29% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($986M), with a 7% share of global imports. It was followed by the Netherlands, with a 6.9% share.

In China, methanol imports expanded at an average annual rate of +8.2% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: India (+7.1% per year) and the Netherlands (+2.3% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average methanol import price stood at $384 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 1.9% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 63% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $416 per ton in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in the United States ($503 per ton) and Brazil ($468 per ton), while China ($342 per ton) and India ($347 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Methanol (Methyl Alcohol)

Global methanol exports fell modestly to 33M tons in 2022, declining by -4% against 2021. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 8.5% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 35M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, methanol exports amounted to $11.8B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +63.2% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 63%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

The biggest shipments were from Trinidad and Tobago (4.6M tons), Saudi Arabia (4.5M tons), the United States (3.2M tons), Iran (2.6M tons), Oman (2.3M tons), Russia (2.1M tons), the United Arab Emirates (1.8M tons), Venezuela (1.7M tons), the Netherlands (1.6M tons), Malaysia (1.6M tons), Equatorial Guinea (1.2M tons) and Egypt (1.1M tons), together reaching 85% of total export.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +40.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest methanol supplying countries worldwide were Trinidad and Tobago ($1.8B), Saudi Arabia ($1.3B) and the United States ($1.2B), with a combined 36% share of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +36.3%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average methanol export price stood at $353 per ton in 2022, surging by 4.2% against the previous year. Overall, the export price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 55% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $420 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Russia ($490 per ton), while Egypt ($147 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform