Flat Hot-Rolled Steel Coils Market

The article provides a detailed analysis of the global flat hot-rolled steel in coils market, with a focus on consumption, production, imports, and exports trends. It highlights the expected growth in market volume and value from 2022 to 2030, with projections of key metrics. The data also covers the performance of major consuming and producing countries, as well as the types of flat hot-rolled steel products with the highest demand. Overall, the article offers a comprehensive overview of the market dynamics and future outlook for the industry.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for flat hot-rolled steel in coils worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 296M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $243.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Flat Hot-Rolled Steel in Coils

In 2022, after three years of decline, there was growth in consumption of flat hot-rolled steel in coils, when its volume increased by 1.1% to 285M tons. Overall, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at 318M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global flat hot-rolled steel coils market value contracted to $198.8B in 2022, waning by -5.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption showed a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $210.8B, and then contracted in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of flat hot-rolled steel coils consumption was China (82M tons), comprising approx. 29% of total volume. Moreover, flat hot-rolled steel coils consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (34M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by the United States (31M tons), with an 11% share.

In China, flat hot-rolled steel coils consumption remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+3.9% per year) and the United States (+0.9% per year).

In value terms, China ($50.3B), the United States ($27B) and India ($21B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 49% of the global market. Russia, Italy, Japan, Brazil, the UK, Mexico, Turkey, Canada and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 27%.

Italy, with a CAGR of +6.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of flat hot-rolled steel coils per capita consumption in 2022 were Italy (184 kg per person), the UK (126 kg per person) and Canada (117 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +4.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Flat Hot-Rolled Steel in Coils

In 2022, after three years of decline, there was growth in production of flat hot-rolled steel in coils, when its volume increased by 0.6% to 289M tons. Overall, production recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 7.1%. Global production peaked at 322M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, flat hot-rolled steel coils production contracted to $193.9B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 30%. As a result, production attained the peak level of $215.2B, and then contracted in the following year.

Production By Country

China (91M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of flat hot-rolled steel coils production, accounting for 31% of total volume. Moreover, flat hot-rolled steel coils production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (36M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by the United States (29M tons), with a 9.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China was relatively modest. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+4.8% per year) and the United States (+0.9% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Flat Hot-Rolled Steel in Coils

In 2022, global imports of flat hot-rolled steel in coils dropped to 64M tons, which is down by -10.6% compared with the year before. Over the period under review, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 11%. Global imports peaked at 76M tons in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, flat hot-rolled steel coils imports reduced to $59.8B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +69.1% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 77%. As a result, imports attained the peak of $62.4B, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Imports By Country

The purchases of the twelve major importers of flat hot-rolled steel in coils, namely Italy, Vietnam, Turkey, the United States, Thailand, South Korea, Spain, Poland, China, Germany, Belgium and Malaysia, represented more than half of total import. India (1.5M tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading importing countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +7.3%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest flat hot-rolled steel coils importing markets worldwide were Italy ($5.7B), Vietnam ($4.8B) and the United States ($4.1B), together comprising 24% of global imports.

In terms of the main importing countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +9.9%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm represented the major type of flat hot-rolled steel in coils in the world, with the volume of imports finishing at 24M tons, which was near 37% of total imports in 2022. It was distantly followed by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (11M tons), iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm (8.4M tons), steel, alloy (6.6M tons), iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of less than 3mm (5.2M tons), iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (3.1M tons) and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness exceeding 10mm (3M tons), together committing a 58% share of total imports.

Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports. At the same time, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (+2.4%) and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm (+1.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +2.4% from 2012-2022. Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm, steel, alloy and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness exceeding 10mm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of less than 3mm (-1.6%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (+2.8 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global imports from 2012-2022, the share of iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of less than 3mm (-2 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm ($21.3B) constitutes the largest type of flat hot-rolled steel in coils imported worldwide, comprising 36% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm ($9.9B), with a 17% share of global imports. It was followed by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm, with a 13% share.

For iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm, imports increased at an average annual rate of +3.7% over the period from 2012-2022. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (+5.5% per year) and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm (+5.0% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The average flat hot-rolled steel coils import price stood at $941 per ton in 2022, growing by 7.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a temperate expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, flat hot-rolled steel coils import price increased by +80.1% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 68%. Global import price peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was steel, stainless; flat-rolled, width less than 600mm, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more ($4,233 per ton), while the price for iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness exceeding 10mm ($883 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more (+3.2%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average flat hot-rolled steel coils import price stood at $941 per ton in 2022, rising by 7.1% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a notable increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, flat hot-rolled steel coils import price increased by +80.1% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 68% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($1,160 per ton), while South Korea ($773 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Belgium (+5.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Flat Hot-Rolled Steel in Coils

In 2022, the amount of flat hot-rolled steel in coils exported worldwide contracted to 67M tons, with a decrease of -11.5% on the year before. Overall, exports, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when exports increased by 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at 81M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, flat hot-rolled steel coils exports dropped to $58.2B in 2022. Over the period under review, total exports indicated notable growth from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +69.4% against 2020 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 87%. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $64.4B, and then reduced in the following year.

Exports By Country

Japan (13M tons) and China (10M tons) were the largest exporters of flat hot-rolled steel in coils in 2022, reaching near 19% and 16% of total exports, respectively. South Korea (5.4M tons) took the next position in the ranking, followed by India (3.9M tons), France (3.5M tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (3.1M tons) and Belgium (3.1M tons). All these countries together took near 28% share of total exports. Russia (3M tons), Germany (2.9M tons), Canada (1.8M tons), the Netherlands (1.7M tons), Turkey (1.5M tons) and Iran (1.3M tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Iran (with a CAGR of +15.7%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($10B), China ($8.2B) and South Korea ($4.6B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together accounting for 39% of global exports. France, Belgium, Germany, Taiwan (Chinese), India, Russia, Canada, the Netherlands, Turkey and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +11.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm represented the key exported product with an export of around 24M tons, which reached 36% of total exports. It was distantly followed by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (11M tons), iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm (8.4M tons), steel, alloy (8.3M tons), iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of less than 3mm (4.9M tons), iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (3.6M tons) and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness exceeding 10mm (3.2M tons), together constituting a 59% share of total exports.

Exports of iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (+3.6%) and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm (+2.8%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +3.6% from 2012-2022. Iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness exceeding 10mm experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, pickled, of a thickness of less than 3mm (-1.5%) and steel, alloy (-3.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2012 to 2022, the share of iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm increased by +4.1, +2.2 and +1.5 percentage points, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm ($19.8B) remains the largest type of flat hot-rolled steel in coils supplied worldwide, comprising 34% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm ($9.5B), with a 16% share of global exports. It was followed by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm, with a 13% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the value of iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm exports stood at +3.7%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 3mm or more but less than 4.75mm (+6.3% per year) and iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more but not exceeding 10mm (+5.7% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average flat hot-rolled steel coils export price amounted to $864 per ton, surging by 2.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a measured increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, flat hot-rolled steel coils export price increased by +74.8% against 2020 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 71%. The global export price peaked in 2022 and is likely to see gradual growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was steel, stainless; flat-rolled, width less than 600mm, hot-rolled, of a thickness of 4.75mm or more ($4,297 per ton), while the average price for exports of iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, without patterns in relief, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, of a thickness of less than 3mm ($808 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by iron or non-alloy steel; in coils, flat-rolled, of a width 600mm or more, hot-rolled, with patterns in relief (+3.6%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average flat hot-rolled steel coils export price amounted to $864 per ton, growing by 2.2% against the previous year. In general, export price indicated moderate growth from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, flat hot-rolled steel coils export price increased by +74.8% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 71% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,150 per ton), while Iran ($382 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+4.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform