Ethylene Market

The article analyzes the global ethylene market, forecasting an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is expected to accelerate, with values and volumes projected to increase by 2030. The highest volumes and values of consumption and production are reported for key countries such as China, the United States, and India. Import and export trends are also discussed, highlighting notable growth rates in certain countries. Ethylene per capita consumption and average import/export prices are examined to provide a comprehensive overview of the market.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for ethylene worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 145M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.4% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $306.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Ethylene

After two years of growth, consumption of ethylene decreased by -3.1% to 124M tons in 2022. Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 6% against the previous year. As a result, consumption reached the peak volume of 128M tons, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

The global ethylene market revenue contracted slightly to $235B in 2022, waning by -1.6% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Over the period under review, consumption saw a slight curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the market value increased by 6.8% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $268B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (24M tons), the United States (14M tons) and India (9.4M tons), with a combined 38% share of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the United States (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($26.8B), Russia ($20.3B) and the United States ($12.6B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together comprising 25% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, the United States, with a CAGR of +7.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of ethylene per capita consumption was registered in Belgium (220 kg per person), followed by Japan (47 kg per person), the UK (43 kg per person) and the United States (42 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of ethylene was estimated at 16 kg per person.

In Belgium, ethylene per capita consumption shrank by an average annual rate of -1.8% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Japan (+1.0% per year) and the UK (+0.3% per year).

Production

World Production of Ethylene

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was decline in production of ethylene, when its volume decreased by -3% to 123M tons. Over the period under review, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 6.1% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 127M tons, and then reduced in the following year.

In value terms, ethylene production rose markedly to $236.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production recorded a mild descent. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 27%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $309.2B. From 2019 to 2022, global production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (22M tons), the United States (15M tons) and India (9.4M tons), together accounting for 38% of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the United States (with a CAGR of +9.6%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Ethylene

In 2022, approx. 7.4M tons of ethylene were imported worldwide; with an increase of 5.3% on 2021. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 when imports increased by 10%. Global imports peaked at 7.4M tons in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, ethylene imports skyrocketed to $8.7B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 35%. Global imports peaked at $8.7B in 2018; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

Imports By Country

In 2022, China (2.1M tons) and Belgium (1.8M tons) represented the largest importers of ethylenearound the world, together recording approx. 53% of total imports. It was distantly followed by Indonesia (851K tons), Germany (524K tons) and Taiwan (Chinese) (393K tons), together comprising a 24% share of total imports. Sweden (283K tons), the Netherlands (196K tons), France (171K tons), South Korea (142K tons) and Japan (120K tons) took a little share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Japan (with a CAGR of +16.1%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Belgium ($2.4B), China ($2.2B) and Indonesia ($930M) constituted the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, with a combined 64% share of global imports. Germany, Sweden, Taiwan (Chinese), the Netherlands, France, South Korea and Japan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 25%.

Among the main importing countries, Japan, with a CAGR of +13.1%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average ethylene import price stood at $1,177 per ton in 2022, increasing by 11% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 42% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $1,398 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($1,393 per ton), while Taiwan (Chinese) ($928 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Indonesia (+3.1%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Ethylene

After two years of decline, shipments abroad of ethylene increased by 6.7% to 7.2M tons in 2022. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 with an increase of 7.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 7.4M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, ethylene exports expanded notably to $7.9B in 2022. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 38%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at $8.4B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

South Korea (1.6M tons), the United States (1.2M tons) and the Netherlands (0.9M tons) represented roughly 52% of total exports in 2022. Japan (381K tons) ranks next in terms of the total exports with a 5.3% share, followed by the UK (4.9%) and Malaysia (4.7%). Singapore (320K tons), Belgium (301K tons), the United Arab Emirates (269K tons), Germany (235K tons), Norway (200K tons), Taiwan (Chinese) (161K tons) and China (154K tons) took a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by China (with a CAGR of +162.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest ethylene supplying countries worldwide were South Korea ($1.6B), the Netherlands ($1.2B) and the United States ($1.1B), together accounting for 49% of global exports. The UK, Belgium, Japan, Malaysia, Singapore, the United Arab Emirates, Germany, Norway, China and Taiwan (Chinese) lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 40%.

China, with a CAGR of +138.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average ethylene export price amounted to $1,109 per ton, with an increase of 7.6% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a mild decrease. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 44%. The global export price peaked at $1,360 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($1,582 per ton), while the United States ($904 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+1.9%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform