Cocoa Bean Market

The article provides a comprehensive analysis of the cocoa bean market, projecting an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to expand with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% in volume and +4.6% in value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 7M tons and $22.4B respectively. Despite a decline in consumption in 2022, the market has shown consistent growth over the years. The article also delves into global production, harvested area, imports, exports, and price trends, highlighting key players in the market such as Cote d'Ivoire, Ghana, Indonesia, and Ecuador.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cocoa beans worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.6% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $22.4B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Cocoa Beans

In 2022, after six years of growth, there was decline in consumption of cocoa beans, when its volume decreased by -1.7% to 5.9M tons. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 6M tons in 2021, and then fell slightly in the following year.

The global cocoa bean market revenue declined to $15.7B in 2022, waning by -6.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $16.7B in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Indonesia (934K tons), Cote d'Ivoire (780K tons) and the Netherlands (532K tons), together comprising 38% of global consumption. Germany, Ghana, Malaysia, the United States, Brazil, France, Nigeria, Canada, Peru and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 42%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Peru (with a CAGR of +11.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cocoa bean markets worldwide were Indonesia ($2.4B), Cote d'Ivoire ($2B) and the Netherlands ($1.2B), with a combined 36% share of the global market. Germany, Brazil, Ghana, the United States, Malaysia, France, Canada, Nigeria, Peru and Italy lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 44%.

Peru, with a CAGR of +11.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of cocoa bean per capita consumption in 2022 were the Netherlands (30 kg per person), Cote d'Ivoire (28 kg per person) and Ghana (11 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Peru (with a CAGR of +9.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Cocoa Beans

In 2022, global cocoa bean production dropped modestly to 5.9M tons, stabilizing at the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when the production volume increased by 9.6%. Global production peaked at 6M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a temperate expansion of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, cocoa bean production fell to $15.4B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when the production volume increased by 20%. Global production peaked at $16B in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of cocoa bean production was Cote d'Ivoire (2.3M tons), comprising approx. 38% of total volume. Moreover, cocoa bean production in Cote d'Ivoire exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Ghana (808K tons), threefold. Indonesia (720K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 12% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in Cote d'Ivoire totaled +4.2%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Ghana (-0.8% per year) and Indonesia (-0.3% per year).

Yield

The global average cocoa bean yield shrank to 504 kg per ha in 2022, therefore, remained relatively stable against 2021. Overall, the yield, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the yield increased by 5.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average cocoa bean yield hit record highs at 522 kg per ha in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the yield stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global cocoa bean harvested area dropped to 12M ha in 2022, flattening at the previous year's figure. The harvested area increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 9.3% against the previous year. The global harvested area peaked at 12M ha in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Imports

World Imports of Cocoa Beans

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in supplies from abroad of cocoa beans, when their volume decreased by -6.2% to 3.8M tons. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.9% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at 4M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, cocoa bean imports fell rapidly to $9.3B in 2022. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when imports increased by 20% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at $11B in 2021, and then fell rapidly in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the Netherlands (770K tons), distantly followed by Germany (473K tons), Malaysia (459K tons), the United States (344K tons), Belgium (328K tons), Indonesia (239K tons) and France (169K tons) represented the largest importers of cocoa beans, together achieving 74% of total imports. Canada (135K tons), Italy (101K tons), Singapore (95K tons), Spain (93K tons), Turkey (87K tons) and the UK (68K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Indonesia (with a CAGR of +26.0%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cocoa bean importing markets worldwide were the Netherlands ($1.8B), Germany ($1.2B) and Malaysia ($1.1B), with a combined 43% share of global imports. The United States, Belgium, Indonesia, France, Canada, Italy, Singapore, Spain, Turkey and the UK lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 46%.

Indonesia, with a CAGR of +24.2%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average cocoa bean import price stood at $2,468 per ton in 2022, with a decrease of -10.4% against the previous year. In general, the import price showed a slight contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the maximum at $3,215 per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Average prices varied noticeably amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Italy ($2,795 per ton) and France ($2,711 per ton), while the Netherlands ($2,276 per ton) and Indonesia ($2,288 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+0.8%), while the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Cocoa Beans

In 2022, the amount of cocoa beans exported worldwide reduced to 3.8M tons, shrinking by -5.9% on the previous year. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 19% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 4M tons in 2021, and then shrank in the following year.

In value terms, cocoa bean exports fell dramatically to $8.8B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2014 when exports increased by 23% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $10.7B in 2021, and then declined markedly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Cote d'Ivoire represented the major exporter of cocoa beans in the world, with the volume of exports resulting at 1.5M tons, which was approx. 39% of total exports in 2022. Ghana (447K tons) held the second position in the ranking, followed by Ecuador (392K tons), Belgium (246K tons), the Netherlands (238K tons), Cameroon (236K tons) and Nigeria (220K tons). All these countries together took approx. 47% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to cocoa bean exports from Cote d'Ivoire stood at +3.8%. At the same time, Ecuador (+10.3%), Belgium (+7.9%), the Netherlands (+5.3%) and Cameroon (+3.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Ecuador emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +10.3% from 2012-2022. Nigeria experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Ghana (-2.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Ecuador (+5.4 p.p.), Cote d'Ivoire (+4.6 p.p.), Belgium (+2.6 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+1.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Ghana saw its share reduced by -8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Cote d'Ivoire ($3.2B) remains the largest cocoa bean supplier worldwide, comprising 36% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Ghana ($1.2B), with a 13% share of global exports. It was followed by Ecuador, with a 10% share.

In Cote d'Ivoire, cocoa bean exports expanded at an average annual rate of +3.3% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Ghana (-5.2% per year) and Ecuador (+10.2% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average cocoa bean export price stood at $2,327 per ton in 2022, waning by -13% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a slight contraction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2014 when the average export price increased by 15% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $3,012 per ton in 2016; however, from 2017 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, major exporting countries recorded the following prices: in Belgium ($2,714 per ton) and Ghana ($2,576 per ton), while Cameroon ($2,039 per ton) and Cote d'Ivoire ($2,185 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Ecuador (-0.1%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform