Banana Market

The global banana market is expected to see growth in consumption and value over the next eight years, with India leading in volume consumed. The market is forecasted to reach 147M tons in volume and $126.7B in value by 2030. India also leads in banana production, along with China and Ecuador. Among the top exporting countries, Ecuador holds the largest share. The market has seen slight fluctuations in consumption, production, and export prices over the years, with various countries experiencing different growth rates.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for bananas worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 147M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $126.7B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Bananas

In 2022, the amount of bananas consumed worldwide amounted to 127M tons, leveling off at 2021 figures. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 4.1%. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global banana market revenue totaled $91.9B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global market attained the maximum level in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of banana consumption was India (32M tons), accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, banana consumption in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, China (13M tons), twofold. Indonesia (8.5M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 6.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in India totaled +2.0%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: China (+1.0% per year) and Indonesia (+3.2% per year).

In value terms, the largest banana markets worldwide were India ($23.3B), China ($11.7B) and Indonesia ($5.6B), with a combined 44% share of the global market. Kenya, the Philippines, Tanzania, Angola, Brazil, the United States, Ecuador, Peru, Rwanda and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 26%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Tanzania, with a CAGR of +3.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of banana per capita consumption in 2022 were Rwanda (154 kg per person), Ecuador (129 kg per person) and Angola (122 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Kenya (with a CAGR of +2.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Bananas

After five years of growth, production of bananas decreased by -1% to 128M tons in 2022. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 3.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at 129M tons in 2021, and then contracted in the following year. The general positive trend in terms output was largely conditioned by modest growth of the harvested area and a mild increase in yield figures.

In value terms, banana production fell modestly to $90.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 8.3%. Over the period under review, global production reached the maximum level at $91.5B in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Production By Country

The country with the largest volume of banana production was India (33M tons), accounting for 26% of total volume. Moreover, banana production in India exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, China (12M tons), threefold. Ecuador (9.2M tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 7.2% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in India totaled +2.2%. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: China (+0.1% per year) and Ecuador (+2.8% per year).

Yield

In 2022, the global average yield of bananas contracted slightly to 24 tons per ha, stabilizing at the previous year's figure. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when the yield increased by 4.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average banana yield attained the maximum level at 24 tons per ha in 2021, and then reduced modestly in the following year.

Harvested Area

In 2022, the total area harvested in terms of bananas production worldwide dropped modestly to 5.3M ha, almost unchanged from the previous year. Overall, the harvested area continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 3%. Over the period under review, the harvested area dedicated to banana production attained the peak figure at 5.4M ha in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the harvested area stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Bananas

After two years of growth, supplies from abroad of bananas decreased by -3.2% to 23M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 13%. Global imports peaked at 24M tons in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

In value terms, banana imports fell slightly to $14.8B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2013 with an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs at $15.1B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (4.6M tons), distantly followed by China (1.8M tons), Russia (1.6M tons), the Netherlands (1.4M tons), Germany (1.3M tons) and Japan (1.1M tons) represented the largest importers of bananas, together achieving 52% of total imports. Belgium (999K tons), the UK (853K tons), France (785K tons), Italy (740K tons), Canada (572K tons), Argentina (470K tons) and Poland (469K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

The United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern with regard to volume of imports of bananas. At the same time, Russia (+31.2%), the Netherlands (+18.2%), China (+11.2%), Poland (+9.1%), France (+4.0%), Argentina (+2.4%), Italy (+1.9%) and Canada (+1.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Russia emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +31.2% from 2012-2022. Germany and Japan experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the UK (-2.4%) and Belgium (-2.5%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Russia (+6.5 p.p.), the Netherlands (+4.7 p.p.) and China (+4.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while Germany, Japan, the UK, Belgium and the United States saw its share reduced by -1.8%, -2.1%, -2.9%, -3.5% and -6.5% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($2.3B), China ($1.2B) and the Netherlands ($1.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 31% of global imports. Germany, Japan, Russia, France, the UK, Belgium, Italy, Canada, Poland and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 42%.

Among the main importing countries, Russia, with a CAGR of +32.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average banana import price amounted to $649 per ton, increasing by 1.6% against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 an increase of 4.6%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $701 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was France ($899 per ton), while Russia ($488 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Argentina (+5.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Bananas

In 2022, shipments abroad of bananas decreased by -8.5% to 24M tons for the first time since 2015, thus ending a six-year rising trend. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2016 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at 26M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, banana exports contracted rapidly to $13.2B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 16%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure at $15.8B in 2021, and then reduced rapidly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Ecuador was the major exporter of bananas in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 6.9M tons, which was near 29% of total exports in 2022. Guatemala (2.4M tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 10% share, followed by Colombia (9.4%), Costa Rica (8.7%) and the Philippines (5.9%). The Netherlands (1,002K tons), Belgium (834K tons), the United States (580K tons), Honduras (564K tons), Mexico (478K tons), Myanmar (448K tons), Vietnam (430K tons) and Cote d'Ivoire (381K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to banana exports from Ecuador stood at +3.9%. At the same time, Vietnam (+52.8%), Myanmar (+26.1%), the Netherlands (+22.8%), Mexico (+11.3%), Cote d'Ivoire (+3.8%), Colombia (+2.5%), Guatemala (+2.5%) and the United States (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Vietnam emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +52.8% from 2012-2022. Costa Rica and Honduras experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Belgium (-3.8%) and the Philippines (-4.8%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. The Netherlands (+3.5 p.p.), Ecuador (+2.1 p.p.), Vietnam (+1.8 p.p.) and Myanmar (+1.6 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Costa Rica, Belgium and the Philippines saw its share reduced by -2.1%, -3.6% and -7.2% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Ecuador ($3.4B) remains the largest banana supplier worldwide, comprising 26% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by the Philippines ($1.1B), with an 8.3% share of global exports. It was followed by Costa Rica, with a 7.7% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Ecuador was relatively modest. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: the Philippines (-3.9% per year) and Costa Rica (+3.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average banana export price stood at $558 per ton in 2022, reducing by -9.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a mild setback. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 3%. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the peak figure at $654 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($919 per ton), while Myanmar ($173 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (+2.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform