MENA's Wine and Grape Must Market Poised for Steady Growth With a 1.6% Value CAGR Through 2035

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The MENA wine and grape must market reached 5.2 billion litres in consumption in 2024, valued at $19.7B. Driven by Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria, the market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +0.8% in volume and +1.6% in value through 2035, reaching 5.7B litres and $23.5B. Wine of fresh grapes dominates consumption (79%). While production is largely self-sufficient, imports declined sharply in 2024, and Israel is the region's dominant exporter, accounting for 85% of export volume.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to grow to 5.7B litres ($23.5B) by 2035, with a +0.8% volume and +1.6% value CAGR
• Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria are the top consuming countries, together accounting for 57% of volume
• Wine of fresh grapes (non-sparkling) is the dominant product type, constituting 79% of total consumption
• Israel is the region's leading exporter, supplying 85% of total export volume
• Import volume fell -23.5% in 2024, with the UAE, Israel, and Turkey as the top importers by value

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for wine and grape must in MENA, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +0.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 5.7B litres by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.6% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $23.5B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

MENA's Consumption of Wine And Grape Must

In 2024, consumption of wine and grape must was finally on the rise to reach 5.2B litres after three years of decline. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 5.1%. As a result, consumption attained the peak volume of 5.2B litres; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

The size of the wine and grape must market in MENA fell slightly to $19.7B in 2024, shrinking by -1.7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the market attained the maximum level at $20.3B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2024 were Saudi Arabia (1.3B litres), Egypt (1.1B litres) and Algeria (595M litres), together accounting for 57% of total consumption. Morocco, Israel, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey and Tunisia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +2.8%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine and grape must markets in MENA were Egypt ($4.9B), Saudi Arabia ($3.5B) and Syrian Arab Republic ($2.1B), together accounting for 53% of the total market. Tunisia, Algeria, Morocco, Israel and Turkey lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

Turkey, with a CAGR of +5.3%, saw the highest growth rate of market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of wine and grape must per capita consumption in 2024 were Israel (40 litres per person), Saudi Arabia (34 litres per person) and Tunisia (21 litres per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +1.6%), while consumption for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Consumption By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (4.1B litres) constituted the product with the largest volume of consumption, accounting for 79% of total volume. Moreover, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, grape must (646M litres), sixfold.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) consumption totaled +1.1%. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: grape must (+1.1% per year) and sparkling wine (+1.0% per year).

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($11.9B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($5.2B).

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) market was relatively modest. With regard to the other consumed products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: sparkling wine (+2.9% per year) and grape must (+2.8% per year).

Production

MENA's Production of Wine And Grape Must

In 2024, production of wine and grape must increased by 3% to 5.2B litres for the first time since 2021, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.2% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the production volume increased by 4.9%. The volume of production peaked at 5.2B litres in 2021; afterwards, it flattened through to 2024.

In value terms, wine and grape must production contracted slightly to $16B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 14% against the previous year. The level of production peaked at $17.2B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2024 were Saudi Arabia (1.3B litres), Egypt (1.1B litres) and Algeria (590M litres), with a combined 57% share of total production. Israel, Morocco, Syrian Arab Republic, Turkey and Tunisia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Israel (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while production for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (4.1B litres) constituted the product with the largest volume of production, comprising approx. 79% of total volume. Moreover, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exceeded the figures recorded for the second-largest type, grape must (643M litres), sixfold.

For wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine), production increased at an average annual rate of +1.1% over the period from 2013-2024. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: grape must (+1.1% per year) and sparkling wine (+1.4% per year).

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($12.1B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by sparkling wine ($5.3B).

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) production was relatively modest. With regard to the other produced products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: sparkling wine (+4.1% per year) and grape must (+3.1% per year).

Imports

MENA's Imports of Wine And Grape Must

In 2024, supplies from abroad of wine and grape must decreased by -23.5% to 78M litres, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. Over the period under review, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 with an increase of 29% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 105M litres. From 2023 to 2024, the growth of imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, wine and grape must imports dropped dramatically to $278M in 2024. In general, imports recorded a mild contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 41%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at $476M in 2023, and then reduced dramatically in the following year.

Imports By Country

The countries with the highest levels of wine and grape must imports in 2024 were Morocco (22M litres), the United Arab Emirates (19M litres) and Israel (17M litres), together finishing at 73% of total import. It was distantly followed by Turkey (9.7M litres) and Algeria (5.4M litres), together generating a 19% share of total imports. Qatar (1.8M litres) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Israel (with a CAGR of +10.0%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest wine and grape must importing markets in MENA were the United Arab Emirates ($100M), Israel ($78M) and Turkey ($53M), together accounting for 83% of total imports.

Among the main importing countries, Israel, with a CAGR of +10.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) prevails in imports structure, accounting for 67M litres, which was near 86% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by sparkling wine (7.7M litres), committing a 9.8% share of total imports. Grape must (3.4M litres) held a minor share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, average annual rates of growth with regard to wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports of stood at +2.4%. At the same time, grape must (+37.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, grape must emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in MENA, with a CAGR of +37.0% from 2013-2024. By contrast, sparkling wine (-11.0%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2013 to 2024, the share of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) and grape must increased by +21 and +4.2 percentage points, respectively.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($215M) constitutes the largest type of wine and grape must imported in MENA, comprising 77% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($61M), with a 22% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) imports was relatively modest. With regard to the other imported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: sparkling wine (-7.1% per year) and grape must (+16.1% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The import price in MENA stood at $3.5 per litre in 2024, reducing by -23.8% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a mild decrease. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 an increase of 24%. The level of import peaked at $4.6 per litre in 2023, and then contracted sharply in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($7.9 per litre), while the price for grape must ($662 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sparkling wine (+4.5%), while the other products experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the import price in MENA amounted to $3.5 per litre, shrinking by -23.8% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a slight descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the import price increased by 24% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import prices hit record highs at $4.6 per litre in 2023, and then dropped rapidly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Turkey ($5.4 per litre), while Algeria ($642 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Qatar (+6.1%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the import price figures.

Exports

MENA's Exports of Wine And Grape Must

In 2024, after two years of decline, there was significant growth in overseas shipments of wine and grape must, when their volume increased by 41% to 80M litres. In general, exports saw strong growth. As a result, the exports attained the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, wine and grape must exports shrank slightly to $117M in 2024. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +3.1% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 21% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports attained the maximum at $122M in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Israel prevails in exports structure, accounting for 68M litres, which was approx. 85% of total exports in 2024. It was distantly followed by Turkey (6.6M litres), committing an 8.2% share of total exports. Morocco (2.6M litres) and Lebanon (1.9M litres) took a minor share of total exports.

Israel was also the fastest-growing in terms of the wine and grape must exports, with a CAGR of +12.8% from 2013 to 2024. At the same time, Turkey (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Lebanon experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Morocco (-2.7%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. Israel (+30 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while Lebanon, Turkey and Morocco saw its share reduced by -3.2%, -6.9% and -7.2% from 2013 to 2024, respectively.

In value terms, Israel ($67M) remains the largest wine and grape must supplier in MENA, comprising 57% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Turkey ($26M), with a 22% share of total exports. It was followed by Lebanon, with a 12% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Israel amounted to +6.2%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Turkey (+5.2% per year) and Lebanon (-0.4% per year).

Exports By Type

The products with the highest levels of wine and grape must exports in 2024 were wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (80M litres), together resulting at 99% of total export.

Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) was also the fastest-growing in terms of exports, with a CAGR of +8.6% from 2013 to 2024. Wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) (+3.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the total exports, while the shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($111M) remains the largest type of wine and grape must supplied in MENA, comprising 95% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by sparkling wine ($5.3M), with a 4.5% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) exports totaled +3.4%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: sparkling wine (-0.7% per year) and grape must (-10.7% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the export price in MENA amounted to $1.5 per litre, reducing by -32.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a pronounced setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export prices attained the peak figure at $2.6 per litre in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was sparkling wine ($16 per litre), while the average price for exports of wine of fresh grapes (except sparkling wine) ($1.4 per litre) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by sparkling wine (+9.8%), while the other products experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the export price in MENA amounted to $1.5 per litre, declining by -32.3% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a pronounced decline. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 18% against the previous year. The level of export peaked at $2.6 per litre in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Lebanon ($7.2 per litre), while Israel ($980 per thousand litres) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Turkey (+2.6%), while the other leaders experienced mixed trends in the export price figures.