China's Rapeseed Oil Market Set for Growth to 7.4 Million Tons and $10.6 Billion

IndexBox has just published a new report: China - Rapeseed Oil - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

This article provides a comprehensive analysis of China's rapeseed oil market for 2024, with a forecast to 2035. It details that despite a recent decline in consumption to 5.4M tons ($6.6B), the market is forecast to grow, driven by rising demand, to 7.4M tons in volume and $10.6B in value by 2035. The report covers domestic production (3.5M tons), significant imports (1.9M tons, primarily crude oil), and a smaller but growing export segment. It includes breakdowns by trade partners, product types, and price analyses for both imports and exports.

Key Findings

• China's rapeseed oil market is forecast to grow to 7.4M tons and $10.6B by 2035 following recent declines
• Domestic production of 3.5M tons in 2024 is insufficient to meet consumption, creating a supply gap filled by imports
• Imports, primarily crude rapeseed oil, fell to 1.9M tons in 2024 but remain crucial for the market
• Exports surged by 218% to 21K tons in 2024, though they represent a very small share of total market activity
• Average import and export prices declined in 2024, reflecting broader market adjustments

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for rapeseed oil in China, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.4M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

China's Consumption of Rapeseed Oil

In 2024, approx. 5.4M tons of rapeseed oil were consumed in China; which is down by -7.2% against 2023. In general, consumption continues to indicate a mild curtailment. Rapeseed oil consumption peaked at 6.6M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The value of the rapeseed oil market in China declined dramatically to $6.6B in 2024, with a decrease of -17.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption continues to indicate a mild downturn. Rapeseed oil consumption peaked at $8B in 2023, and then fell significantly in the following year.

Production

China's Production of Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed oil production in China rose to 3.5M tons in 2024, increasing by 2.1% against the previous year. Overall, production, however, continues to indicate a pronounced reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 when the production volume increased by 13%. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 5.7M tons. From 2015 to 2024, production growth remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, rapeseed oil production declined to $4.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, showed a deep slump. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 72%. Over the period under review, production attained the maximum level at $9.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

China's Imports of Rapeseed Oil

In 2024, approx. 1.9M tons of rapeseed oil were imported into China; with a decrease of -20.3% compared with the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, imports, however, posted modest growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2023 when imports increased by 122% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 2.4M tons, and then declined remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, rapeseed oil imports fell notably to $1.9B in 2024. Overall, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2018 when imports increased by 72%. Imports peaked at $2.7B in 2023, and then dropped remarkably in the following year.

Imports By Country

Pakistan (2.2K tons), Russia (1.9K tons) and Canada (205 kg) were the main suppliers of rapeseed oil imports to China, together comprising 0.2% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +6.2%), while purchases for the other leaders experienced a decline.

In value terms, Pakistan ($2.6M), Russia ($1.9M) and Canada ($386) were the largest rapeseed oil suppliers to China, together comprising 0.2% of total imports.

Russia, with a CAGR of +5.4%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced a decline.

Imports By Type

In 2024, vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (1.9M tons) was the main type of rapeseed oil supplied to China, accounting for a 99% share of total imports. It was followed by vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (8.2K tons), with a 0.4% share of total imports. The third position in this ranking was held by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (4.1K tons), with a 0.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude imports amounted to +2.1%. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (-13.5% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+35.7% per year).

In value terms, vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($1.9B) constituted the largest type of rapeseed oil supplied to China, comprising 99% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was held by vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($13M), with a 0.7% share of total imports. It was followed by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude, with a 0.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude imports was relatively modest. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (-12.2% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+30.3% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2024, the average rapeseed oil import price amounted to $998 per ton, shrinking by -12% against the previous year. Overall, the import price saw a noticeable decrease. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 an increase of 40%. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,559 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($2,632 per ton), while the price for vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($996 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+2.4%), while the prices for the other products experienced mixed trend patterns.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average rapeseed oil import price amounted to $998 per ton, falling by -12% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a perceptible curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 40% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,559 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,883 per ton), while the price for Russia ($998 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+64.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

China's Exports of Rapeseed Oil

In 2024, overseas shipments of rapeseed oil increased by 218% to 21K tons, rising for the third year in a row after four years of decline. In general, exports posted strong growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when exports increased by 302% against the previous year. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, rapeseed oil exports soared to $25M in 2024. Over the period under review, exports recorded prominent growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 252%. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The United States (46 tons), Indonesia (24 tons) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (9.8 tons) were the main destinations of rapeseed oil exports from China, together comprising 0.4% of total exports. Hong Kong SAR, Nepal, Uzbekistan, Taiwan (Chinese) and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 0.1%.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main countries of destination, was attained by Taiwan (Chinese) (with a CAGR of +408.7%), while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for rapeseed oil exported from China were the United States ($90K), Democratic People's Republic of Korea ($47K) and Indonesia ($37K), together accounting for 0.7% of total exports. Nepal, Uzbekistan, Taiwan (Chinese), Hong Kong SAR and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 0.1%.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Taiwan (Chinese), with a CAGR of +509.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (21K tons) was the largest type of rapeseed oil exported from China, with a 99% share of total exports. It was followed by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (146 tons), with a 0.7% share of total exports. Vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (100 tons) ranked third in terms of total exports with a 0.5% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified exports totaled +11.8%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+16.0% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+105.1% per year).

In value terms, vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($24M) remains the largest type of rapeseed oil exported from China, comprising 97% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was held by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($481K), with a 2% share of total exports. It was followed by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude, with a 0.9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified exports stood at +7.8%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+20.9% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+91.0% per year).

Export Prices By Type

The average rapeseed oil export price stood at $1,148 per ton in 2024, with a decrease of -14.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a noticeable curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 53%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,514 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($3,290 per ton), while the average price for exports of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($1,128 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+4.2%), while the prices for the other products experienced mixed trend patterns.

Export Prices By Country

The average rapeseed oil export price stood at $1,148 per ton in 2024, waning by -14.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a noticeable downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average export price increased by 53%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure at $2,514 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices for the major overseas markets. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Democratic People's Republic of Korea ($4,759 per ton), while the average price for exports to Malaysia ($484 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Democratic People's Republic of Korea (+20.8%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.