Blog - Vegetable And Animal Oils And Fats

Over the past decade, global production of fish fat and oil rose from 3.7M tonnes to 11.3M tonnes. In value terms, production expanded significantly from $6.5B to $16.7B estimated in export prices. 

Coconut oil prices will grow moderately this year, following the fundamental trend relevant to all vegetable oils. The average annual coconut oil price is set to grow by 2.3% y-o-y to $1,674 per tonne in 2022 due to limited supply and rising logistic costs.

In 2022, soybean oil prices are forecast to rise by nearly 4% to $1,425 per tonne, driven by boosting demand for biofuels. In 2021, the average annual soybean oil price skyrocketed, rising 65% y-o-y to $1,385 per tonne. India remains the world’s largest soybean oil importer, while Argentina holds the position of the leading global supplier. 

EU cheese prices are expected to rise with the boosting export demand, while fluid milk and butter prices will keep relatively stable. The EU dairy market is forecast to grow only moderately, having raw milk availability restrained by sustainability objectives. Despite that, the EU is to remain the largest dairy exporter worldwide. 

High prices and growing demand in the olive oil market have spurred investments to expand and mechanize plantations that will automate the production process. This will enable increased production in the EU from a projected 2.2M tonnes in 2021 to 2.3M tonnes by 2025. Thanks to rising demand from Asia, top European exporters - Spain, Italy and Portugal - will be able to boost shipments.

The average price for Grade AA butter in the U.S. amounted to $2.02 per pound on December 11, 2021, increasing by 40% from the same period last year. Reducing milk cow herd, labour shortage, and the rising packaging materials costs constrain production growth, leading to insufficient supply in the market that results in the butter price surge. Demand for butter typically picks in Q4, when Americans consume more holiday cookies and other traditional dishes. In December, butter prices picked up 3.7% compared to the figures a month earlier.

Prices for palm kernel oil spiked by 27% over the month, reaching $1,807 in October 2021. Compared to this year's January figures, the prices soared by +32%. In 2020, palm kernel exports dropped by -3.1% y-o-y in physical terms but grew by +8.9% y-o-y in value terms, reaching $2.5B. Indonesia remains the largest supplier, accounting for 56% of global exports of palm kernel oil. China, the U.S. and Germany constitute the most prominent importers of the product. 

European fish fat and oil exports increased by +23% y-o-y to $541M in 2020. In physical terms, exports rose +12% y-o-y to 251K tonnes. Denmark remains the most significant European fish fat supplier, accounting for 60% of total export volume in the EU, followed by France and the Netherlands. All these countries increased their export value last year. The average fish fat and oil export price in the EU spiked by +10% y-o-y to $2,155 per tonne in 2020.

Global groundnut oil imports reached $671M in 2020. In physical terms, global imports spiked by +15% y-o-y to 444K tonnes in 2020, mainly due to rising demand from China. China represents the world’s largest importer of groundnut oil, with a 61%-share of global import volume. In 2020, China’s groundnut oil imports jumped from $225M to $433M. Brazil and Argentina remain the key exporters of groundnut oil.

Over the last year, China increased its sunflower oilcake imports from 1.4M tonnes to 2.2M tonnes. In value terms, the imports skyrocketed by +51.3% y-o-y to $588M. Ukraine dominates Chinese sunflower oilcake imports, with a 97%-share of the total volume. The supplies from Ukraine gained $170M last year. The average sunflower oilcake import price in China fell by -3.5% y-o-y to $269 per tonne in 2020.

In 2020, European rapeseed oil exports soared to 3.1M tonnes, reaching $3B in value terms. Germany is the largest supplier in the EU, accounting for 35% of European export volume. Belgium and France follow Germany, comprising a combined 26%-share. Last year, these three key exporters ramped up the supplies abroad significantly. France became the fastest-growing exporter among European countries. The rapeseed oil export price in the EU jumped by +6.7% y-o-y to $970 per tonne in 2020.

Cream imports to China soared +21% y-o-y to 194K tonnes in 2020, which equated to $625M.  Over the past decade, China boosted cream imports manyfold, from only 7.1K tonnes or $20M in 2010 to the present figures. New Zealand remains the key cream supplier to China, accounting for 53% of the total Chinese imports in physical terms. In 2020, Spain, Belgium, Germany, Ireland and New Zealand featured the highest growth rates regarding cream export volume to China. Last year, the average cream import price in China grew by +2.5% to $3,216 per tonne compared to the figures of 2019.