China's Rapeseed Oil Market Set for 4.4% Value CAGR Growth Through 2035

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China's rapeseed oil market experienced a significant decline in 2024 with consumption dropping to 5.4M tons (-7.2%) and market value falling to $6.6B (-17.2%). Domestic production remained limited at 3.5M tons, requiring substantial imports of 1.9M tons primarily of crude rapeseed oil. Despite recent setbacks, the market is forecast to grow at a CAGR of +2.9% in volume and +4.4% in value through 2035, reaching 7.4M tons valued at $10.6B. Import prices averaged $998/ton while export volumes surged 218% to 21K tons, though export prices declined to $1,148/ton.

Key Findings

• Market forecast to grow at 2.9% CAGR to 7.4M tons by 2035, valued at $10.6B with 4.4% value CAGR
• 2024 consumption declined 7.2% to 5.4M tons with market value dropping 17.2% to $6.6B
• Domestic production limited to 3.5M tons, requiring 1.9M tons of imports primarily crude rapeseed oil
• Import prices fell 12% to $998/ton while export prices dropped 14.8% to $1,148/ton
• Exports surged 218% to 21K tons despite price declines, showing growing international demand

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for rapeseed oil in China, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next decade. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.9% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 7.4M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $10.6B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

China's Consumption of Rapeseed Oil

In 2024, consumption of rapeseed oil in China declined to 5.4M tons, waning by -7.2% compared with 2023. Over the period under review, consumption saw a mild descent. Rapeseed oil consumption peaked at 6.6M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The value of the rapeseed oil market in China declined dramatically to $6.6B in 2024, waning by -17.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption continues to indicate a slight shrinkage. Over the period under review, the market hit record highs at $8B in 2023, and then shrank sharply in the following year.

Production

China's Production of Rapeseed Oil

In 2024, approx. 3.5M tons of rapeseed oil were produced in China; increasing by 2.1% against 2023. Overall, production, however, showed a perceptible reduction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2014 with an increase of 13% against the previous year. As a result, production attained the peak volume of 5.7M tons. From 2015 to 2024, production growth remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, rapeseed oil production declined to $4.1B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a drastic downturn. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 72% against the previous year. Rapeseed oil production peaked at $9.1B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Imports

China's Imports of Rapeseed Oil

Rapeseed oil imports into China fell notably to 1.9M tons in 2024, dropping by -20.3% on the previous year. In general, imports, however, saw a mild increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2023 with an increase of 122% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 2.4M tons, and then fell remarkably in the following year.

In value terms, rapeseed oil imports contracted rapidly to $1.9B in 2024. Over the period under review, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 72%. Over the period under review, imports reached the peak figure at $2.7B in 2023, and then declined dramatically in the following year.

Imports By Country

Pakistan (2.2K tons), Russia (1.9K tons) and Canada (205 kg) were the main suppliers of rapeseed oil imports to China, together accounting for 0.2% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main suppliers, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +6.2%), while imports for the other leaders experienced a decline.

In value terms, the largest rapeseed oil suppliers to China were Pakistan ($2.6M), Russia ($1.9M) and Canada ($386), with a combined 0.2% share of total imports.

Russia, with a CAGR of +5.4%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main suppliers over the period under review, while purchases for the other leaders experienced a decline.

Imports By Type

In 2024, vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (1.9M tons) was the main type of rapeseed oil supplied to China, accounting for a 99% share of total imports. It was followed by vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (8.2K tons), with a 0.4% share of total imports. Vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (4.1K tons) ranked third in terms of total imports with a 0.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the volume of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude imports amounted to +2.1%. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (-13.5% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+35.7% per year).

In value terms, vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($1.9B) constituted the largest type of rapeseed oil supplied to China, comprising 99% of total imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($13M), with a 0.7% share of total imports. It was followed by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude, with a 0.2% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude imports was relatively modest. With regard to the other supplied products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (-12.2% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+30.3% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2024, the average rapeseed oil import price amounted to $998 per ton, which is down by -12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price showed a pronounced descent. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 40% against the previous year. As a result, import price attained the peak level of $1,559 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($2,632 per ton), while the price for vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude ($996 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+2.4%), while the prices for the other products experienced mixed trend patterns.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average rapeseed oil import price amounted to $998 per ton, waning by -12% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a pronounced curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 an increase of 40%. As a result, import price reached the peak level of $1,559 per ton. From 2023 to 2024, the average import prices remained at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major supplying countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($1,883 per ton), while the price for Russia ($998 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands (+64.1%), while the prices for the other major suppliers experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

China's Exports of Rapeseed Oil

In 2024, shipments abroad of rapeseed oil increased by 218% to 21K tons, rising for the third consecutive year after four years of decline. Over the period under review, exports showed resilient growth. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 with an increase of 302%. The exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, rapeseed oil exports surged to $25M in 2024. In general, exports recorded a resilient expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 252% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the exports reached the maximum in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The United States (46 tons), Indonesia (24 tons) and Democratic People's Republic of Korea (9.8 tons) were the main destinations of rapeseed oil exports from China, together accounting for 0.4% of total exports. Hong Kong SAR, Nepal, Uzbekistan, Taiwan (Chinese) and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 0.1%.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Taiwan (Chinese) (with a CAGR of +408.7%), while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest markets for rapeseed oil exported from China were the United States ($90K), Democratic People's Republic of Korea ($47K) and Indonesia ($37K), together accounting for 0.7% of total exports. Nepal, Uzbekistan, Taiwan (Chinese), Hong Kong SAR and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 0.1%.

In terms of the main countries of destination, Taiwan (Chinese), with a CAGR of +509.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (21K tons) was the largest type of rapeseed oil exported from China, accounting for a 99% share of total exports. It was followed by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (146 tons), with a 0.7% share of total exports. The third position in this ranking was held by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (100 tons), with a 0.5% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the volume of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified exports stood at +11.8%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+16.0% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+105.1% per year).

In value terms, vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($24M) remains the largest type of rapeseed oil exported from China, comprising 97% of total exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($481K), with a 2% share of total exports. It was followed by vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude, with a 0.9% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified exports amounted to +7.8%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+20.9% per year) and vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, crude (+91.0% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average rapeseed oil export price amounted to $1,148 per ton, with a decrease of -14.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price continues to indicate a noticeable decline. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 53% against the previous year. The export price peaked at $2,514 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($3,290 per ton), while the average price for exports of vegetable oils; low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified ($1,128 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for the following types: vegetable oils; excluding low erucic acid rape or colza oil and its fractions, other than crude, but not chemically modified (+4.2%), while the prices for the other products experienced mixed trend patterns.

Export Prices By Country

The average rapeseed oil export price stood at $1,148 per ton in 2024, waning by -14.8% against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a noticeable downturn. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when the average export price increased by 53% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs at $2,514 per ton in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Democratic People's Republic of Korea ($4,759 per ton), while the average price for exports to Malaysia ($484 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was recorded for supplies to Democratic People's Republic of Korea (+20.8%), while the prices for the other major destinations experienced more modest paces of growth.