The Growth of Canned Herring Market in the EU Loses Momentum

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'EU - Herrings (Prepared Or Preserved) - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends And Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The revenue of the herring market in the European Union amounted to $1.5B in 2018, remaining relatively stable against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). From 2016-2017, the market grew rapidly, recovering from a noticeable slump observed in 2015. In 2018, however, the market growth lost its momentum, and the market volume stays within its relatively flat long-term trend pattern.

Consumption By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of canned herring consumption in 2018 were Germany (81K tons), Poland (80K tons) and the UK (68K tons), with a combined 55% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Italy, Spain, the Netherlands and Hungary, which together accounted for a further 31%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of herring consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest herring markets in the European Union were Germany ($420M), Poland ($222M) and the UK ($212M), together accounting for 58% of the total market.

The countries with the highest levels of herring per capita consumption in 2018 were Poland (2,1 kg per person), Italy (1,1 kg per person) and Hungary (1,0 kg per person).

Production in the EU

In 2018, approx. 423K tons of herrings (prepared or preserved) were produced in the European Union; approximately equating the previous year. In general, herring production, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when production volume increased by 2.9% against the previous year. In value terms, herring production totaled $1.9B in 2018 estimated in export prices.

Production By Country in the EU

The countries with the highest volumes of herring production in 2018 were Poland (109K tons), Italy (66K tons) and the UK (65K tons), with a combined 57% share of total production. These countries were followed by Germany, Spain, Denmark and Lithuania, which together accounted for a further 32%.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of herring production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Lithuania, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports in the EU

In 2018, the exports of herrings (prepared or preserved) in the European Union totaled 121K tons, increasing by 6.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, herring exports, however, continue to indicate a mild reduction. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2011 with an increase of 13% year-to-year. In value terms, herring exports stood at $399M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Exports by Country

Poland was the main exporter of herrings (prepared or preserved) in the European Union, with the volume of exports accounting for 52K tons, which was approx. 43% of total exports in 2018. Denmark (27K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 22% share, followed by Germany (20%) and Lithuania (5.2%). The following exporters - Sweden (4,143 tons) and the Netherlands (3,077 tons) - each accounted for a 6% share of total exports.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of exports, amongst the main exporting countries, was attained by Germany, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Poland ($165M) remains the largest herring supplier in the European Union, comprising 41% of total herring exports. The second position in the ranking was occupied by Denmark ($82M), with a 21% share of total exports. It was followed by Germany, with a 19% share.

Export Prices by Country

The herring export price in the European Union stood at $3,295 per ton in 2018, reducing by -1.5% against the previous year. Over the period from 2007 to 2018, it increased at an average annual rate of +1.5%.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was the Netherlands ($6,046 per ton), while Denmark ($3,072 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the Netherlands, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports in the EU

The imports stood at 115K tons in 2018, increasing by 3.9% against the previous year. Overall, herring imports, however, continue to indicate a slight contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2008 with an increase of 4.1% against the previous year. In that year, herring imports reached their peak of 137K tons. From 2009 to 2018, the growth of herring imports remained at a somewhat lower figure. In value terms, herring imports totaled $327M (IndexBox estimates) in 2018.

Imports by Country

Germany was the key importer of herrings (prepared or preserved) in the European Union, with the volume of imports finishing at 45K tons, which was approx. 39% of total imports in 2018. Poland (23K tons) occupied the second position in the ranking, distantly followed by the Netherlands (7,378 tons), Sweden (5,846 tons) and Denmark (5,698 tons). All these countries together occupied approx. 36% share of total imports. The UK (3,262 tons), Finland (3,251 tons), Austria (3,246 tons), Romania (2,774 tons), the Czech Republic (2,359 tons), France (2,216 tons) and Estonia (2,026 tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

Imports into Germany decreased at an average annual rate of -2.3% from 2007 to 2018. At the same time, the Netherlands (+13.8%), Romania (+12.9%) and the UK (+3.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing importer in the European Union, with a CAGR of +13.8% from 2007-2018. Poland and France experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the Czech Republic (-2.1%), Denmark (-2.3%), Austria (-2.6%), Estonia (-4.8%), Sweden (-5.0%) and Finland (-5.4%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. From 2007 to 2018, the share of the Netherlands, Romania and Poland increased by +4.9%, +1.8% and +1.6% percentage points, while Finland (-2.4 p.p.), Sweden (-3.8 p.p.) and Germany (-11.3 p.p.) saw their share reduced. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

Import Prices by Country

The herring import price in the European Union stood at $2,840 per ton in 2018, waning by -4.4% against the previous year. In general, the herring import price, however, continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern.

Prices varied noticeably by the country of destination; the country with the highest price was Austria ($4,240 per ton), while Sweden ($1,781 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2007 to 2018, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Finland, while the other leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform