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World - Sawnwood - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights
Update: COVID-19 Impact

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Article Publishing Date: Aug 19, 2021

Lumber Prices Decrease in the U.S. but Stay High in Other Countries, Causing Significant Upheaval in the Global Market

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IndexBox has just published a new report: 'World - Sawnwood - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

American lumber prices have decreased threefold, closing in on pre-COVID levels, which should drive global prices down. The change in lumber prices is largely influenced by slumping demand for real estate which became more expensive from diminished access. In Russia, the world’s largest supplier, a sharp increase in lumber exports led to a shortage in the domestic market. Attempting to hold the price growth instigated by that, the Russian government implemented 10% export duties on lumber until the end of 2021. Due to this, the main importers of Russian goods may opt for other suppliers.

Key Trends and Insights

Lumber prices in the U.S. are plummeting and nearing pre-COVID figures while pulling global prices down with them. After reaching a peak above $1600 per board foot in May 2021, lumber futures on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in August dropped below $500 per board foot.

The main reason for the decrease in prices is the slumping demand for timber-based materials in the construction sector. According to the U.S. Census Bureau, in June, new home sales dropped by 6.6% in the U.S. compared with May and consisted of 676k units. The average selling price for new homes increased from $418.6k in January to $437k in April where it peaked. In May the average selling price for new homes began to fall and in June was $428.7k. An increase in the interest rate in the U.S. and a decrease in mortgage credit availability along with growing costs of new housing have hampered the demand for real estate. Besides this, as tourism recovers, people are beginning to spend more on vacations rather than renovations and purchasing real estate.

While prices are starting to trend downward in the U.S., other countries are still acutely feeling the effects of the sharp increase in global prices for lumber. In Russia, the world’s largest exporter, lumber prices on the domestic market skyrocketed in the second quarter of this year and reached their highest value in June. This increase was caused by a shortage of lumber within the country due to rapid growth in exports, particularly to China. Based on figures from Russia’s Federal Customs Service, IndexBox calculates that from January through May 2021, exports of rough sawnwood from Russia grew from 963k tonnes to 2.2M tonnes. Within that period, shipments to China only grew from 569k tonnes to 1.3M tonnes.

To hold back prices on the domestic market, the Russian government implemented 10% export duties on sawn softwood and raw hardwood from July through December 2021. This could cause exports from the country to drop. Russia makes up 52% of lumber imports to China and approximately 21% of shipments to Egypt. As a result of the new regulations, alternative suppliers may strengthen their position in Russia’s key foreign markets.

Global Sawnwood Production by Country

In 2020, approx. 503M cubic meters of sawnwood were produced worldwide; with an increase of +2.3% compared with 2019 figures. In value terms, sawnwood production reached $187B in 2020 estimated in export prices. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +5.0% from 2012 to 2020.

The countries with the highest volumes of sawnwood production in 2020 were China (99M cubic meters), the U.S. (82M cubic meters) and Russia (46M cubic meters), with a combined 45% share of global production. In 2020, the biggest increases were in China, while sawnwood production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Global Sawnwood Exports by Country

In 2020, global exports of sawnwood were estimated at 177M cubic meters, stabilizing at 2019 figures. In value terms, sawnwood exports reduced modestly to $37.4B (IndexBox estimates) in 2020. 

In 2020, Russia (35M cubic meters) and Canada (31M cubic meters) were the largest exporters of sawnwood in the world, together constituting 38% of total exports. Sweden (16M cubic meters) took the next position in the ranking, followed by Germany (12M cubic meters) and Finland (8.7M cubic meters). All these countries together held approx. 21% share of total exports. The following exporters - Austria (7.4M cubic meters), the U.S. (6.5M cubic meters), Belarus (5.8M cubic meters), Latvia (4.5M cubic meters), Thailand (4.2M cubic meters), Ukraine (4.2M cubic meters), Brazil (3.6M cubic meters) and Chile (3.3M cubic meters) - together made up 22% of total exports.

In value terms, the largest sawnwood supplying countries worldwide were Canada ($7.8B), Russia ($4.8B) and Sweden ($3.4B), together accounting for 43% of global exports. The U.S., Germany, Finland, Austria, Thailand, Latvia, Brazil, Chile, Ukraine and Belarus lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 34%.

The average sawnwood export price stood at $211 per cubic meter in 2020, reducing by -1.9% against the previous year. Prices varied noticeably by the country of origin; the country with the highest price was the U.S. ($396 per cubic meter), while Belarus ($102 per cubic meter) was amongst the lowest. In 2020, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the U.S., while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Platform

Product coverage:
• FCL 1632 - Sawnwood, coniferous
• FCL 1633 - Sawnwood, non-coniferous all

This report provides an in-depth analysis of the global sawnwood market. Within it, you will discover the latest data on market trends and opportunities by country, consumption, production and price developments, as well as the global trade (imports and exports). The forecast exhibits the market prospects through 2025.



Data coverage:
• Global market volume and value
• Per Capita consumption
• Forecast of the market dynamics in the medium term
• Global production, split by region and country
• Global trade (exports and imports)
• Export and import prices
• Market trends, drivers and restraints
• Key market players and their profiles

Reasons to buy this report:
• Take advantage of the latest data
• Find deeper insights into current market developments
• Discover vital success factors affecting the market
This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, and wholesalers, as well as for investors, consultants and advisors.

In this report, you can find information that helps you to make informed decisions on the following issues:
1. How to diversify your business and benefit from new market opportunities
2. How to load your idle production capacity
3. How to boost your sales on overseas markets
4. How to increase your profit margins
5. How to make your supply chain more sustainable
6. How to reduce your production and supply chain costs
7. How to outsource production to other countries
8. How to prepare your business for global expansion
While doing this research, we combine the accumulated expertise of our analysts and the capabilities of artificial intelligence. The AI-based platform, developed by our data scientists, constitutes the key working tool for business analysts, empowering them to discover deep insights and ideas from the marketing data.
1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business

1.1
REPORT DESCRIPTION
1.2
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND AI PLATFORM
1.3
DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
1.4
GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance

2.1
KEY FINDINGS
2.2
MARKET TRENDS
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and Its Prospects

3.1
MARKET SIZE
3.2
CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY
3.3
MARKET FORECAST TO 2030
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business

4.1
TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
4.2
BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
4.3
MOST CONSUMED PRODUCT
4.4
MOST TRADED PRODUCT
4.5
MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCT FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain

5.1
TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
5.2
TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
5.3
TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5.4
LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Exports

6.1
TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
6.2
TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
6.3
UNSATURATED MARKETS
6.4
TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
6.5
MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. GLOBAL PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry

7.1
PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE
7.2
PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY
8. GLOBAL IMPORTS

The Largest Importers on The Market and How They Succeed

8.1
IMPORTS FROM 2007–2020
8.2
IMPORTS BY COUNTRY
8.3
IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
9. GLOBAL EXPORTS

The Largest Exporters on The Market and How They Succeed

9.1
EXPORTS FROM 2007–2020
9.2
EXPORTS BY COUNTRY
9.3
EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles

11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles

United States
China
Japan
Germany
United Kingdom
France
Brazil
Italy
Russian Federation
India
Canada
Australia
Republic of Korea
Spain
Mexico
Indonesia
Netherlands
Turkey
Saudi Arabia
Switzerland
Sweden
Nigeria
Poland
Belgium
Argentina
Norway
Austria
Thailand
United Arab Emirates
Colombia
Denmark
South Africa
Malaysia
Israel
Singapore
Egypt
Philippines
Finland
Chile
Ireland
Pakistan
Greece
Portugal
Kazakhstan
Algeria
Czech Republic
Qatar
Peru
Romania
Vietnam
LIST OF TABLES
Table 1:
Key Findings In 2020
Table 2:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Table 3:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Table 4:
Per Capita Consumption, By Country, 2018–2020
Table 5:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 6:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 7:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 8:
Import Prices, By Country Of Destination, 2007–2020
Table 9:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 10:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Table 11:
Export Prices, By Country Of Origin, 2007–2020
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure 1:
Market Volume, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 2:
Market Value, 2007–2020
Figure 3:
Consumption, By Country, 2020
Figure 4:
Market Forecast To 2025
Figure 5:
Products: Market Size And Growth, By Type
Figure 6:
Products: Average Per Capita Consumption, By Type
Figure 7:
Products: Exports And Growth, By Type
Figure 8:
Products: Export Prices And Growth, By Type
Figure 9:
Production Volume And Growth
Figure 10:
Exports And Growth
Figure 11:
Export Prices And Growth
Figure 12:
Market Size And Growth
Figure 13:
Per Capita Consumption
Figure 14:
Imports And Growth
Figure 15:
Import Prices
Figure 16:
Production, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 17:
Production, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 18:
Production, By Country, 2020
Figure 19:
Production, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 20:
Imports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 21:
Imports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 22:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 23:
Imports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 24:
Imports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 25:
Import Prices, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 26:
Exports, In Physical Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 27:
Exports, In Value Terms, 2007–2020
Figure 28:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2020
Figure 29:
Exports, In Physical Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 30:
Exports, In Value Terms, By Country, 2007–2020
Figure 31:
Export Prices, 2007–2020

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