Global Cheese Market: Consistent Growth Expected with CAGR of +1.1% from 2024-2035

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The global cheese market is poised for growth in the coming years, driven by increasing demand worldwide. Forecasts show a steady rise in consumption, with a projected CAGR of +1.1% in volume and +1.8% in value from 2024 to 2035. By the end of 2035, the market volume is expected to reach 30M tons, with a value of $167.9B in nominal prices.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cheese worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +1.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $167.9B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Cheese

After three years of decline, consumption of cheese increased by 1.5% to 26M tons in 2024. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the consumption volume increased by 8.6%. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the maximum volume at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global cheese market size contracted slightly to $137.8B in 2024, with a decrease of -2.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $180.4B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The United States (6.3M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cheese consumption, comprising approx. 24% of total volume. Moreover, cheese consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (2.5M tons), twofold. Italy (2M tons) ranked third in terms of total consumption with a 7.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in the United States stood at +1.7%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Germany (+2.0% per year) and Italy (+5.6% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($30.3B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($12.5B). It was followed by Germany.

In the United States, the cheese market expanded at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+6.8% per year) and Germany (+2.6% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cheese per capita consumption in 2024 were Italy (34 kg per person), Germany (30 kg per person) and France (22 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Cheese

In 2024, the amount of cheese produced worldwide reached 26M tons, remaining stable against the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 8.6%. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cheese production stood at $141.5B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 with an increase of 19%. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $181.7B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

Production By Country

The United States (6.6M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of cheese production, accounting for 25% of total volume. Moreover, cheese production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (3M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Italy (2.1M tons), with a 7.9% share.

In the United States, cheese production increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+1.7% per year) and Italy (+7.6% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Cheese

In 2024, the amount of cheese imported worldwide declined modestly to 7.5M tons, shrinking by -2.9% on the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 6.3%. As a result, imports reached the peak of 7.8M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of global imports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, cheese imports shrank modestly to $42.1B in 2024. In general, total imports indicated a notable expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.6% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +56.2% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when imports increased by 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $43.8B in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Germany (777K tons), followed by Italy (513K tons), the UK (450K tons), France (429K tons), the Netherlands (429K tons), Spain (407K tons) and Belgium (351K tons) were the key importers of cheese, together making up 45% of total imports. The following importers - Japan (260K tons), the United States (215K tons) and Mexico (198K tons) - each reached a 9% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +6.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest cheese importing markets worldwide were Germany ($5.1B), France ($2.8B) and the UK ($2.7B), together comprising 25% of global imports. Italy, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, the United States, Japan and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

Mexico, with a CAGR of +6.8%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed represented the largest type of cheese in the world, with the volume of imports recording 3.9M tons, which was approx. 52% of total imports in 2024. It was distantly followed by unripened or uncured cheese (2.3M tons), processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (0.7M tons) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (0.6M tons), together constituting a 47% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key imported products, was attained by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +5.6%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($24.2B) constitutes the largest type of cheese imported worldwide, comprising 57% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by unripened or uncured cheese ($10.2B), with a 24% share of global imports. It was followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered), with an 8.8% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed imports totaled +1.5%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: unripened or uncured cheese (+5.3% per year) and processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (+1.3% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2024, the average cheese import price amounted to $5,629 per ton, stabilizing at the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2022 when the average import price increased by 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $5,691 per ton in 2023, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($8,965 per ton), while the price for unripened or uncured cheese ($4,458 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by uncured cheese (+1.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average cheese import price stood at $5,629 per ton in 2024, remaining constant against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 13%. Global import price peaked at $5,691 per ton in 2023, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2024, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($9,017 per ton), while the Netherlands ($4,536 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+1.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Cheese

In 2024, after eleven years of growth, there was decline in shipments abroad of cheese, when their volume decreased by -4.5% to 7.7M tons. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.0% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 with an increase of 4.5% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 8.1M tons in 2023, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

In value terms, cheese exports contracted slightly to $44B in 2024. Overall, total exports indicated a temperate increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +2.9% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +65.9% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 when exports increased by 15% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at $45.6B in 2023, and then fell in the following year.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Germany (1.2M tons) and the Netherlands (0.9M tons) represented the key exporters of cheeseacross the globe, together comprising 28% of total exports. France (601K tons) held a 7.8% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (7.5%), the United States (6.7%), Denmark (5.5%) and New Zealand (4.9%). The following exporters - Belarus (338K tons), Ireland (298K tons) and Belgium (293K tons) - each reached a 12% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Belarus (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($6B), Italy ($5.4B) and the Netherlands ($5.3B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together accounting for 38% of global exports. France, the United States, Denmark, New Zealand, Ireland, Belgium and Belarus lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Belarus, with a CAGR of +7.0%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed represented the main exported product with an export of around 3.8M tons, which amounted to 50% of total exports. It was distantly followed by unripened or uncured cheese (2.6M tons), processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (0.6M tons) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (0.6M tons), together constituting a 49% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the main exported products, was attained by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +7.7%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($24.8B) remains the largest type of cheese supplied worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by unripened or uncured cheese ($11.4B), with a 26% share of global exports. It was followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered, with an 8.6% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed exports totaled +1.7%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: unripened or uncured cheese (+5.5% per year) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (+8.2% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average cheese export price amounted to $5,709 per ton, leveling off at the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 11%. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($9,398 per ton), while the average price for exports of unripened or uncured cheese ($4,480 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by uncured cheese (+1.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average cheese export price stood at $5,709 per ton in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 11% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($9,378 per ton), while Belarus ($4,058 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+1.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.