World Cheese Market's Steady Growth Fueled by 2.8% CAGR in Value Through 2035

IndexBox has just published a new report: World - Cheese - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights.

The global cheese market is projected to reach 30 million tons by 2035, growing at a CAGR of +1.2% in volume and +2.8% in value terms. The United States dominates both consumption (24% share) and production (25% share), while Germany leads in imports and exports. Market value reached $153.9 billion in 2024, with Italy showing the highest per capita consumption at 35 kg per person. International trade remains robust with 8.4 million tons exported globally, led by Germany and the Netherlands, with average export prices stabilizing around $5,722 per ton.

Key Findings

• Global cheese market projected to reach 30M tons by 2035 with +1.2% volume CAGR and +2.8% value CAGR
• United States leads consumption (6.3M tons) and production (6.6M tons), accounting for approximately one-quarter of global volume
• Italy has highest per capita consumption at 35 kg per person, followed by Germany at 30 kg
• Germany is top importer (950K tons) and exporter (1.4M tons) by volume
• Average global trade prices stable at $5,645 per ton for imports and $5,722 per ton for exports

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cheese worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $208.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Cheese

After three years of decline, consumption of cheese increased by 0.8% to 26M tons in 2024. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 9.7%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global cheese market value rose notably to $153.9B in 2024, growing by 6.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. Global consumption peaked at $183.1B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The country with the largest volume of cheese consumption was the United States (6.3M tons), comprising approx. 24% of total volume. Moreover, cheese consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (2.5M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Italy (2M tons), with a 7.8% share.

In the United States, cheese consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+1.8% per year) and Italy (+5.7% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($35.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was taken by Italy ($16.4B). It was followed by Germany.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in the United States totaled +2.5%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: Italy (+9.5% per year) and Germany (+4.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cheese per capita consumption in 2024 were Italy (35 kg per person), Germany (30 kg per person) and France (21 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Turkey (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Cheese

In 2024, approx. 26M tons of cheese were produced worldwide; approximately equating 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 9.7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, cheese production rose significantly to $149B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 when the production volume increased by 19% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak level at $182.2B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The United States (6.6M tons) remains the largest cheese producing country worldwide, accounting for 25% of total volume. Moreover, cheese production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (3M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was held by Italy (2.1M tons), with a 7.9% share.

In the United States, cheese production increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: Germany (+1.7% per year) and Italy (+7.6% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Cheese

In 2024, global imports of cheese reached 8.2M tons, growing by 6.2% compared with the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cheese imports reached $46.2B in 2024. Over the period under review, total imports indicated a measured increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +71.2% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 13%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Germany (950K tons), followed by Italy (612K tons), the Netherlands (519K tons), France (507K tons), the UK (450K tons), Belgium (426K tons) and Spain (409K tons) represented the largest importers of cheese, together mixing up 47% of total imports. Japan (260K tons), the United States (215K tons) and Mexico (198K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Mexico (with a CAGR of +6.1%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($6.3B), France ($3.3B) and Italy ($3.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together accounting for 28% of global imports. The UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, the United States, Japan and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Mexico, with a CAGR of +6.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, among the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed was the major imported product with an import of around 4.2M tons, which amounted to 52% of total imports. It was distantly followed by unripened or uncured cheese (2.5M tons), processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (0.7M tons) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (0.6M tons), together constituting a 47% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($26.6B) constitutes the largest type of cheese imported worldwide, comprising 58% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by unripened or uncured cheese ($11.2B), with a 24% share of global imports. It was followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered), with an 8.4% share.

For cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed, imports increased at an average annual rate of +2.4% over the period from 2013-2024. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.2% per year) and processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (+1.7% per year).

Import Prices By Type

The average cheese import price stood at $5,645 per ton in 2024, remaining stable against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 13%. Global import price peaked at $5,688 per ton in 2023, and then shrank modestly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($8,941 per ton), while the price for unripened or uncured cheese ($4,457 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by uncured cheese (+1.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average cheese import price stood at $5,645 per ton in 2024, remaining relatively unchanged against the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2022 an increase of 13% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs at $5,688 per ton in 2023, and then declined slightly in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($9,017 per ton), while the Netherlands ($4,538 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+1.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Cheese

For the twelfth year in a row, the global market recorded growth in overseas shipments of cheese, which increased by 4.1% to 8.4M tons in 2024. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 4.5%. The global exports peaked in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

In value terms, cheese exports rose significantly to $48.2B in 2024. Overall, total exports indicated a perceptible expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +81.6% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

In 2024, Germany (1.4M tons) and the Netherlands (1.1M tons) represented the largest exporters of cheesearound the world, together amounting to approx. 30% of total exports. France (691K tons) took an 8.2% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (7.8%), the United States (6.1%) and Denmark (5.6%). The following exporters - New Zealand (375K tons), Belarus (338K tons), Belgium (338K tons) and Ireland (296K tons) - each accounted for a 16% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Belarus (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($7.1B), the Netherlands ($6.2B) and Italy ($6.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together accounting for 40% of global exports.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +7.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed (4.2M tons) and unripened or uncured cheese (2.8M tons) prevails in exports structure, together generating 83% of total exports. Processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (671K tons) held an 8% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (7.9%).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($27.1B) remains the largest type of cheese supplied worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by unripened or uncured cheese ($12.6B), with a 26% share of global exports. It was followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered, with an 8.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of the value of cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed exports amounted to +2.6%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.5% per year) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (+9.2% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average cheese export price amounted to $5,722 per ton, stabilizing at the previous year. In general, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 11%. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($9,369 per ton), while the average price for exports of unripened or uncured cheese ($4,477 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by uncured cheese (+1.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average cheese export price amounted to $5,722 per ton, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 11% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($9,326 per ton), while Belarus ($4,059 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+1.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.