World Cheese Market to Reach 30 Million Tons and $208 Billion by 2035

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The global cheese market is forecast to grow, reaching 30 million tons in volume and $208.3 billion in value by 2035, driven by increasing worldwide demand. In 2024, consumption rose to 26 million tons, ending a three-year decline, with a market value of $153.9 billion. The United States is the largest consumer and producer, followed by Germany and Italy. Global trade is robust, with Germany and the Netherlands being the leading exporters, while Germany and Italy are the top importers by value. The most traded cheese type is 'cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed', accounting for over half of all imports and exports.

Key Findings

• Global cheese market is projected to grow to 30M tons in volume and $208.3B in value by 2035
• The United States is the dominant force, being the largest consumer, producer, and a high-value importer
• Germany and the Netherlands are the world's leading exporters, while Germany is also the top importer by volume
• Italy has the highest per capita cheese consumption at 35 kg per person
• 'Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed' is the most traded category, making up over 50% of international trade

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for cheese worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 30M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $208.3B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Cheese

In 2024, consumption of cheese increased by 0.8% to 26M tons for the first time since 2020, thus ending a three-year declining trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 9.7% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global cheese market value rose notably to $153.9B in 2024, growing by 6.2% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +2.3% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $183.1B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The United States (6.3M tons) remains the largest cheese consuming country worldwide, comprising approx. 24% of total volume. Moreover, cheese consumption in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, Germany (2.5M tons), threefold. The third position in this ranking was held by Italy (2M tons), with a 7.8% share.

In the United States, cheese consumption increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: Germany (+1.8% per year) and Italy (+5.7% per year).

In value terms, the United States ($35.8B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Italy ($16.4B). It was followed by Germany.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in the United States totaled +2.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Italy (+9.5% per year) and Germany (+4.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of cheese per capita consumption in 2024 were Italy (35 kg per person), Germany (30 kg per person) and France (21 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +12.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Cheese

In 2024, the amount of cheese produced worldwide stood at 26M tons, almost unchanged from the year before. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 when the production volume increased by 9.7%. Global production peaked at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2024, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, cheese production rose sharply to $149B in 2024 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the production volume increased by 19%. Over the period under review, global production hit record highs at $182.2B in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

The United States (6.6M tons) remains the largest cheese producing country worldwide, accounting for 25% of total volume. Moreover, cheese production in the United States exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Germany (3M tons), twofold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Italy (2.1M tons), with a 7.9% share.

In the United States, cheese production expanded at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Germany (+1.7% per year) and Italy (+7.6% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Cheese

In 2024, global cheese imports expanded significantly to 8.2M tons, with an increase of 6.2% on 2023 figures. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cheese imports rose sharply to $46.2B in 2024. Overall, total imports indicated noticeable growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports increased by +71.2% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2017 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2024 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Germany (950K tons), followed by Italy (612K tons), the Netherlands (519K tons), France (507K tons), the UK (450K tons), Belgium (426K tons) and Spain (409K tons) represented the key importers of cheese, together making up 47% of total imports. The following importers - Japan (260K tons), the United States (215K tons) and Mexico (198K tons) - together made up 8.2% of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the key importing countries, was attained by Mexico (with a CAGR of +6.1%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($6.3B), France ($3.3B) and Italy ($3.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2024, together comprising 28% of global imports. The UK, Belgium, the Netherlands, Spain, the United States, Japan and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 30%.

Mexico, with a CAGR of +6.8%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed represented the main imported product with an import of about 4.2M tons, which finished at 52% of total imports. It was distantly followed by unripened or uncured cheese (2.5M tons), processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (0.7M tons) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (0.6M tons), together constituting a 47% share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the leading imported products, was attained by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +6.4%), while imports for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($26.6B) constitutes the largest type of cheese imported worldwide, comprising 58% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by unripened or uncured cheese ($11.2B), with a 24% share of global imports. It was followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered), with an 8.4% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed imports amounted to +2.4%. For the other products, the average annual rates were as follows: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.2% per year) and processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (+1.7% per year).

Import Prices By Type

In 2024, the average cheese import price amounted to $5,645 per ton, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the import price, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 13% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $5,688 per ton in 2023, and then dropped slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major imported products. In 2024, the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($8,941 per ton), while the price for unripened or uncured cheese ($4,457 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by uncured cheese (+1.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

The average cheese import price stood at $5,645 per ton in 2024, approximately equating the previous year. In general, the import price, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2022 when the average import price increased by 13%. Global import price peaked at $5,688 per ton in 2023, and then declined in the following year.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($9,017 per ton), while the Netherlands ($4,538 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the UK (+1.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Cheese

In 2024, the amount of cheese exported worldwide expanded to 8.4M tons, increasing by 4.1% compared with the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% over the period from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 4.5%. The global exports peaked in 2024 and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, cheese exports expanded notably to $48.2B in 2024. Over the period under review, total exports indicated a perceptible increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.8% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, exports increased by +81.6% against 2016 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when exports increased by 15%. Over the period under review, the global exports attained the peak figure in 2024 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

Exports By Country

Germany (1.4M tons) and the Netherlands (1.1M tons) were the largest exporters of cheese in 2024, finishing at approx. 17% and 13% of total exports, respectively. France (691K tons) took an 8.2% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by Italy (7.8%), the United States (6.1%) and Denmark (5.6%). The following exporters - New Zealand (375K tons), Belarus (338K tons), Belgium (338K tons) and Ireland (296K tons) - each resulted at a 16% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for Belarus (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($7.1B), the Netherlands ($6.2B) and Italy ($6.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2024, together comprising 40% of global exports.

Among the main exporting countries, Italy, with a CAGR of +7.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed (4.2M tons) and unripened or uncured cheese (2.8M tons) prevails in exports structure, together achieving 83% of total exports. It was distantly followed by processed cheese (excluding grated or powdered) (671K tons) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (668K tons), together mixing up a 16% share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (with a CAGR of +8.5%), while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed ($27.1B) remains the largest type of cheese supplied worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by unripened or uncured cheese ($12.6B), with a 26% share of global exports. It was followed by cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered, with an 8.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of the value of cheese, other than blue-veined, grated, powdered or processed exports amounted to +2.6%. With regard to the other exported products, the following average annual rates of growth were recorded: unripened or uncured cheese (+6.5% per year) and cheese of all kinds, grated or powdered (+9.2% per year).

Export Prices By Type

In 2024, the average cheese export price amounted to $5,722 per ton, remaining constant against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 an increase of 11% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by the product type; the product with the highest price was cheese, blue-veined (not grated, powdered or processed) ($9,369 per ton), while the average price for exports of unripened or uncured cheese ($4,477 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by uncured cheese (+1.3%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average cheese export price amounted to $5,722 per ton, therefore, remained relatively stable against the previous year. In general, the export price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the average export price increased by 11%. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the peak figure in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($9,326 per ton), while Belarus ($4,059 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by France (+1.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.