The European Animal Feed Market Shows Persistence Against the Pandemic

IndexBox has just published a new report: 'EU - Animal And Pet Feed - Market Analysis, Forecast, Size, Trends and Insights'. Here is a summary of the report's key findings.

The European EU Animal Feed Market to Continue Growing Despite the Coronavirus Pandemic

For the tenth year in a row, the European Union has recorded an increase in the consumption of animal feed (this hereinafter means compound feed, premixes, etc. feed for farm animals, excluding feed for dogs and cats), which increased by 1.5% in 2019 and amounted to 154 million tons. The consumption grew at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2007 to 2019, and growth dynamics remained broadly stable with minor fluctuations over the period under review.

In 2019, the EU animal feed market increased by 0.5% to $50.2B (IndexBox estimates), rising for the third year in a row after three years of decline. This figure reflects the total revenues of manufacturers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price).

The level of consumption peaked at $59.6B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2019, consumption failed to regain the momentum. In 2015, the market value decreased significantly, which was caused by a drop in raw materials and energy costs against the background of falling world oil prices. Over the past three years, the market value has been growing only slightly, despite a more pronounced growth in physical terms.

The COVID-19 pandemic is having a powerful impact on many markets and the economy as a whole, incl. and on the economy of the European Union. Against the background of the introduction of quarantine restrictions, production in entire sectors of the economy has decreased and international transport activity has practically stopped, as a result of which consumer incomes have sharply decreased and consumer behavior patterns have changed.

However, the livestock sector is less affected by these short-term shocks, as quarantine measures have not led to a sharp reduction in the number of farm animals. Thus, in March-July 2020 in the EU there is no sharp drop in the production of feed for farm animals compared to last year. No pronounced growth has been observed either, but frankly speaking, it was not expected due to the rather stable performance of the livestock sector and the absence of prerequisites for a sharp increase in demand for livestock products, whether it be an increase in the population or their incomes.

Despite the fact that the decline in household income should most likely hamper the growth of demand for meat and dairy products, these products remain staple in the diet of Europeans. The decline in demand from the HoReCa sector, closed for several months, can be partially offset by an increase in home consumption. As people began to eat and cook mainly at home during the pandemic, the demand for long-storage products and ready-to-eat meat and dairy products increased. Accordingly, some of the livestock products that were previously supplied to restaurants and cafes could be sent for processing, which is to support agricultural producers.

Since the market for feed for farm animals is predominantly a b2b market, no dramatic changes in sales channels are expected against the backdrop of the pandemic. However, with the use of distance communication and electronic document management, online communication is becoming more and more important even in the b2b sector.

On the other hand, market growth is hindered by a decline in capital investment amid a downturn in the economy and financial uncertainty, which may delay plans to expand and re-equip livestock farms and, consequently, curb the growth in demand for animal feed. At the same time, government support measures should mitigate these negative effects both for the economy as a whole and for the agricultural sector.

The main risk to the supply chain is the possible disruption of established international supply chains, including suppliers of ingredients and packaging materials, as well as the distribution chain. Supply chains can be disrupted by asynchronous quarantine measures in different countries, as well as restrictions on international transport. However, the possible influence of these factors is now mitigated by the gradual opening of the economy in Europe, which should support both market supply and demand.

Amid the pandemic, the market is likely to face pressure on prices as the sharp drop in oil prices will reduce the cost of raw materials and supplies. Moreover, a temporary increase in unemployment against the background of the closure of entire sectors of the economy will entail a decrease in the cost of labor, which will also reduce the cost of production. On the demand side, lower consumer budgets are likely to force producers to curb price increases.

Given the above-mentioned assumptions, the EU farm animal feed market is expected to remain roughly at the level of the previous year in 2020. In the medium term, as the economy recovers from the effects of the pandemic, the market is expected to grow gradually at about 1% per annum between 2019 and 2030, leading to an increase in market size to 173 million tons by the end of 2030.

Spain, Germany and France Constitute the Largest Animal Feed Markets in Europe

The countries with the highest volumes of animal feed consumption in 2019 were Spain (25M tons), Germany (23M tons) and France (19M tons), with a combined 44% share of total consumption. These countries were followed by Italy, the UK, the Netherlands, Poland and Belgium, which together accounted for a further 40%.

From 2007 to 2019, the highest average annual growth rates of animal feed consumption among the leading consumer countries were achieved in Poland and Italy (4.5% and 3.5%, respectively), while the consumption in the other countries grew at a more modest pace.

In value terms, the largest animal feed markets in the European Union were Germany ($7.1B), Spain ($7.1B) and France ($6.4B), together accounting for 41% of the total market. The Netherlands, the UK, Italy, Poland and Belgium lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 40%.

The countries with the highest levels of animal feed per capita consumption in 2019 were the Netherlands (751 kg per person), Belgium (631 kg per person) and Spain (539 kg per person).

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform