Global Alumina Market Set for Growth to 164 Million Tons and $99.1 Billion by 2035

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The global alumina market reached 140 million tons in consumption and $79.6 billion in value in 2024. Driven by worldwide demand, the market is forecast to grow to 164 million tons (volume) and $99.1 billion (value) by 2035. China is the dominant force, accounting for 56% of consumption and 55% of production. International trade is significant, with Australia as the leading exporter (41% share) and Canada as the top importer. The market has shown steady historical growth, though with recent fluctuations, and both import and export prices have been rising.

Key Findings

• China dominates the global alumina landscape, accounting for over half of both world consumption and production
• The market is forecast for steady growth, projected to reach 164M tons in volume and $99.1B in value by 2035
• Australia is the world's leading exporter, supplying 41% of globally traded alumina, while Canada is the largest importer
• Per capita consumption is highest in Norway, the UAE, and Australia, far exceeding the global average
• Global trade prices are rising, with average import and export prices increasing by 9% and 25% respectively in 2024

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for alumina worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next decade. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.4% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market volume to 164M tons by the end of 2035.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2024 to 2035, which is projected to bring the market value to $99.1B (in nominal wholesale prices) by the end of 2035.

Consumption

World's Consumption of Alumina

Global alumina consumption stood at 140M tons in 2024, rising by 1.8% compared with the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at 143M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global alumina market size expanded rapidly to $79.6B in 2024, rising by 8.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +4.4% over the period from 2013 to 2024; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked at $86.4B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

China (79M tons) remains the largest alumina consuming country worldwide, accounting for 56% of total volume. Moreover, alumina consumption in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (6.9M tons), more than tenfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Canada (6.7M tons), with a 4.7% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual rate of growth in terms of volume in China totaled +4.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+4.9% per year) and Canada (+1.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($50.2B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by India ($3.1B). It was followed by Canada.

In China, the alumina market increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% over the period from 2013-2024. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of market growth: India (+6.9% per year) and Canada (+3.8% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of alumina per capita consumption in 2024 were Norway (460 kg per person), the United Arab Emirates (325 kg per person) and Australia (245 kg per person).

From 2013 to 2024, the biggest increases were recorded for the United Arab Emirates (with a CAGR of +9.5%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World's Production of Alumina

In 2024, the amount of alumina produced worldwide reached 144M tons, standing approx. at 2023. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% from 2013 to 2024; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2015 with an increase of 7.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 145M tons in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, production remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, alumina production rose significantly to $82.7B in 2024 estimated in export price. In general, the total production indicated a pronounced expansion from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.5% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when the production volume increased by 32% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $91.4B in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (80M tons) remains the largest alumina producing country worldwide, accounting for 55% of total volume. Moreover, alumina production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, Australia (21M tons), fourfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Brazil (11M tons), with a 7.8% share.

In China, alumina production expanded at an average annual rate of +4.9% over the period from 2013-2024. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Australia (-0.2% per year) and Brazil (+1.1% per year).

Imports

World's Imports of Alumina

After two years of decline, overseas purchases of alumina increased by 1.3% to 32M tons in 2024. In general, imports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 11%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum at 36M tons in 2021; however, from 2022 to 2024, imports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, alumina imports expanded remarkably to $16.1B in 2024. Over the period under review, total imports indicated pronounced growth from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, imports decreased by -3.4% against 2022 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 when imports increased by 31% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports reached the peak figure at $16.7B in 2022; however, from 2023 to 2024, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2024, Canada (5.2M tons), followed by Russia (3.3M tons), the United Arab Emirates (2.8M tons), Norway (2.6M tons), India (2M tons), Malaysia (1.8M tons), South Africa (1.8M tons) and Iceland (1.6M tons) represented the key importers of alumina, together constituting 66% of total imports. China (1.4M tons) and the United States (1.1M tons) held a little share of total imports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Malaysia (with a CAGR of +11.7%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest alumina importing markets worldwide were Canada ($2.2B), Russia ($1.4B) and Norway ($1.2B), together comprising 30% of global imports. The United Arab Emirates, India, Malaysia, China, Iceland, South Africa and the United States lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 36%.

Among the main importing countries, the United Arab Emirates, with a CAGR of +11.4%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2024, the average alumina import price amounted to $498 per ton, with an increase of 9% against the previous year. Over the period from 2013 to 2024, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.7%. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2018 an increase of 29% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2024 and is likely to see steady growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($579 per ton), while South Africa ($366 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Norway (+4.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World's Exports of Alumina

For the third year in a row, the global market recorded decline in overseas shipments of alumina, which decreased by -3.3% to 35M tons in 2024. Over the period under review, exports saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when exports increased by 32% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 41M tons. From 2022 to 2024, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, alumina exports surged to $17.4B in 2024. Overall, total exports indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its value increased at an average annual rate of +3.2% over the last eleven years. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 47%. The global exports peaked at $18B in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2024, the exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

Australia represented the key exporting country with an export of about 15M tons, which accounted for 41% of total exports. Brazil (7.4M tons) took a 21% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by India (6%), China (5%) and Ireland (4.9%). Indonesia (1,393K tons), Jamaica (1,008K tons), Kazakhstan (949K tons), Germany (640K tons) and Spain (634K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the leading exporting countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +137.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Australia ($6.9B) remains the largest alumina supplier worldwide, comprising 39% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Brazil ($3.4B), with a 19% share of global exports. It was followed by China, with a 6.1% share.

From 2013 to 2024, the average annual growth rate of value in Australia amounted to +2.6%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Brazil (+5.8% per year) and China (+24.5% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2024, the average alumina export price amounted to $491 per ton, growing by 25% against the previous year. Over the period under review, export price indicated a tangible increase from 2013 to 2024: its price increased at an average annual rate of +4.0% over the last eleven-year period. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2024 figures, alumina export price increased by +49.4% against 2020 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average export price increased by 33% against the previous year. The global export price peaked in 2024 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2024, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($726 per ton), while Indonesia ($322 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2013 to 2024, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Brazil (+5.4%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.