2026 EU & UK Grain Forecast Revised Up to 298.8M Tonnes, Still Below 2025

EU & UK Grain Forecast

2026 harvest forecast raised but still below 2025

2026 EU & UK grain forecast revised up to 298.8M tonnes

Still remains substantially below last year's 310.5M

Stock video by ChristianBodhi via Pixabay

Mar 20, 2026

2026 EU & UK Grain Forecast Revised Up to 298.8M Tonnes, Still Below 2025

The European agricultural trade association COCERAL has issued an updated production forecast. According to its latest report, the total grain harvest across the EU and the UK for 2026 is now projected to reach 298.8 million tonnes.

This figure represents an increase of 2.1 million tonnes compared to the group's earlier forecast made in December. Despite this upward revision, the current estimate remains substantially lower than the 310.5 million tonnes collected in the previous year.

Within the overall grain basket, wheat output, excluding durum varieties, is anticipated to be 142.6 million tonnes. This is lower than both the prior forecast and the volume harvested in 2025. While current soil moisture is reported as favorable, yields are not expected to match the high levels seen last year.

In southern European regions, crops have already entered a key growth phase under excellent moisture conditions, leading to a positive outlook. For other areas of the bloc, this critical stage will not begin until May.

The forecast for barley production stands at 59.3 million tonnes, which is higher than the December prediction but below the previous year's output. Corn is projected to stage a recovery to 60.7 million tonnes, exceeding both the earlier forecast and the 2025 harvest, even as the planted area contracts.

Farmers are anticipated to continue reducing corn plantings in favor of alternative spring crops due to disappointing yields in recent seasons. The rapeseed crop is expected to see a slight decrease in tonnage compared to 2025, with a return to average yield levels being partly counterbalanced by an expansion in sown area.

This report provides a comprehensive view of the global wheat industry, tracking demand, supply, and trade flows across the worldwide value chain. It explains how demand across key channels and end-use segments shapes consumption patterns, while also mapping the role of input availability, production efficiency, and regulatory standards on supply.

Beyond headline metrics, the study benchmarks prices, margins, and trade routes so you can see where value is created and how it moves between exporters and importers worldwide. The analysis is designed to support strategic planning, market entry, portfolio prioritization, and risk management in the global wheat landscape.

Quick navigation

Key findings
Report scope
Product coverage
Country coverage
Methodology
Forecasts to 2035
Price analysis
Market participants
Country profiles
How to use this report
FAQ

Key findings

Global demand is shaped by both household and industrial usage, with trade flows linking cost-competitive producers to import-reliant markets.
Pricing dynamics reflect unit values, freight costs, exchange rates, and regulatory shifts that affect sourcing decisions.
Supply depends on input availability and production efficiency, creating distinct cost curves across regions.
Market concentration varies by country, creating different competitive landscapes and entry barriers.
The 2035 outlook highlights where capacity investment and demand growth are most aligned globally.

Report scope

The report combines market sizing with trade intelligence and price analytics. It covers both historical performance and the forward outlook to 2035, allowing you to compare cycles, structural shifts, and policy impacts across countries and regions.

Market size and growth in value and volume terms
Consumption structure by end-use segments and regions
Production capacity, output, and cost dynamics
Global trade flows, exporters, importers, and balances
Price benchmarks, unit values, and margin signals
Competitive context and market entry conditions

Product coverage

FCL 15 - Wheat

Country coverage

Country profiles and benchmarks

For the global report, country profiles provide a consistent view of market size, trade balance, prices, and per-capita indicators. The profiles highlight the largest consuming and producing markets and allow direct benchmarking across peers.

Methodology

The analysis is built on a multi-source framework that combines official statistics, trade records, company disclosures, and expert validation. Data are standardized, reconciled, and cross-checked to ensure consistency across time series.

International trade data (exports, imports, and mirror statistics)
National production and consumption statistics
Company-level information from financial filings and public releases
Price series and unit value benchmarks
Analyst review, outlier checks, and time-series validation

All data are normalized to a common product definition and mapped to a consistent set of codes. This ensures that comparisons across time are aligned and actionable.

Forecasts to 2035

The forecast horizon extends to 2035 and is based on a structured model that links wheat demand and supply to macroeconomic indicators, trade patterns, and sector-specific drivers. The model captures both cyclical and structural factors and reflects known policy and technology shifts.

Historical baseline: 2012-2025
Forecast horizon: 2026-2035
Scenario-based sensitivity to income growth, substitution, and regulation
Capacity and investment outlook for major producing countries

Each country projection is built from its own historical pattern and the regional context, allowing the report to show where growth is concentrated and where risks are elevated.

Price analysis and trade dynamics

Prices are analyzed in detail, including export and import unit values, regional spreads, and changes in trade costs. The report highlights how seasonality, freight rates, exchange rates, and supply disruptions influence pricing and margins.

Price benchmarks by country and sub-region
Export and import unit value trends
Seasonality and calendar effects in trade flows
Price outlook to 2035 under baseline assumptions

Profiles of market participants

Key producers, exporters, and distributors are profiled with a focus on their operational scale, geographic footprint, product mix, and market positioning. This helps identify competitive pressure points, partnership opportunities, and routes to differentiation.

Business focus and production capabilities
Geographic reach and distribution networks
Cost structure and pricing strategy indicators
Compliance, certification, and sustainability context

How to use this report

Quantify global demand and identify the most attractive markets
Evaluate export opportunities and prioritize target countries
Track price dynamics and protect margins
Benchmark performance against major competitors
Build evidence-based forecasts for investment decisions

This report is designed for manufacturers, distributors, importers, wholesalers, investors, and advisors who need a clear, data-driven picture of global wheat dynamics.

FAQ

What is included in the global wheat market?

The market size aggregates consumption and trade data at country and regional levels, presented in both value and volume terms.

How are the forecasts to 2035 built?

The projections combine historical trends with macroeconomic indicators, trade dynamics, and sector-specific drivers.

Does the report cover prices and margins?

Yes, it includes export and import unit values, regional spreads, and a pricing outlook to 2035.

Which countries are profiled in detail?

The report provides profiles for the largest consuming and producing countries, enabling benchmarking across peers.

Can this report support market entry decisions?

Yes, it highlights demand hotspots, trade routes, pricing trends, and competitive context.

1. INTRODUCTION

Making Data-Driven Decisions to Grow Your Business
1. REPORT DESCRIPTION
2. RESEARCH METHODOLOGY AND THE AI PLATFORM
3. DATA-DRIVEN DECISIONS FOR YOUR BUSINESS
4. GLOSSARY AND SPECIFIC TERMS
2. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

A Quick Overview of Market Performance
1. KEY FINDINGS
2. MARKET TRENDS This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
3. MARKET OVERVIEW

Understanding the Current State of The Market and its Prospects
1. MARKET SIZE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. CONSUMPTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
3. MARKET FORECAST TO 2035
4. MOST PROMISING PRODUCTS FOR DIVERSIFICATION

Finding New Products to Diversify Your Business
- This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP PRODUCTS TO DIVERSIFY YOUR BUSINESS
2. BEST-SELLING PRODUCTS
3. MOST CONSUMED PRODUCTS
4. MOST TRADED PRODUCTS
5. MOST PROFITABLE PRODUCTS FOR EXPORT
5. MOST PROMISING SUPPLYING COUNTRIES

Choosing the Best Countries to Establish Your Sustainable Supply Chain
- This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP COUNTRIES TO SOURCE YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP PRODUCING COUNTRIES
3. COUNTRIES WITH TOP YIELDS
4. TOP EXPORTING COUNTRIES
5. LOW-COST EXPORTING COUNTRIES
6. MOST PROMISING OVERSEAS MARKETS

Choosing the Best Countries to Boost Your Export
- This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. TOP OVERSEAS MARKETS FOR EXPORTING YOUR PRODUCT
2. TOP CONSUMING MARKETS
3. UNSATURATED MARKETS
4. TOP IMPORTING MARKETS
5. MOST PROFITABLE MARKETS
7. PRODUCTION

The Latest Trends and Insights into The Industry
1. PRODUCTION VOLUME AND VALUE: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. PRODUCTION BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
3. HARVESTED AREA AND YIELD BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
8. IMPORTS

The Largest Import Supplying Countries
1. IMPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. IMPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
3. IMPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
9. EXPORTS

The Largest Destinations for Exports
1. EXPORTS: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
2. EXPORTS BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
3. EXPORT PRICES BY COUNTRY: HISTORICAL DATA (2012–2025) AND FORECAST (2026–2035)
10. PROFILES OF MAJOR PRODUCERS

The Largest Producers on The Market and Their Profiles
- This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
11. COUNTRY PROFILES

The Largest Markets And Their Profiles
This Chapter is Available Only for the Professional Edition PRO
1. 11.1
  United States
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
2. 11.2
  China
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
3. 11.3
  Japan
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
4. 11.4
  Germany
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
5. 11.5
  United Kingdom
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
6. 11.6
  France
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
7. 11.7
  Brazil
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
8. 11.8
  Italy
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
9. 11.9
  Russian Federation
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
10. 11.10
  India
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
11. 11.11
  Canada
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
12. 11.12
  Australia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
13. 11.13
  Republic of Korea
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
14. 11.14
  Spain
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
15. 11.15
  Mexico
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
16. 11.16
  Indonesia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
17. 11.17
  Netherlands
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
18. 11.18
  Turkey
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
19. 11.19
  Saudi Arabia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
20. 11.20
  Switzerland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
21. 11.21
  Sweden
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
22. 11.22
  Nigeria
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
23. 11.23
  Poland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
24. 11.24
  Belgium
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
25. 11.25
  Argentina
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
26. 11.26
  Norway
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
27. 11.27
  Austria
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
28. 11.28
  Thailand
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
29. 11.29
  United Arab Emirates
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
30. 11.30
  Colombia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
31. 11.31
  Denmark
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
32. 11.32
  South Africa
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
33. 11.33
  Malaysia
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
34. 11.34
  Israel
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
35. 11.35
  Singapore
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
36. 11.36
  Egypt
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
37. 11.37
  Philippines
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
38. 11.38
  Finland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
39. 11.39
  Chile
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
40. 11.40
  Ireland
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
41. 11.41
  Pakistan
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
42. 11.42
  Greece
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
43. 11.43
  Portugal
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
44. 11.44
  Kazakhstan
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
45. 11.45
  Algeria
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
46. 11.46
  Czech Republic
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
47. 11.47
  Qatar
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
48. 11.48
  Peru
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
49. 11.49
  Romania
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
50. 11.50
  Vietnam
  - Market Size
  - Production
  - Imports
  - Exports
LIST OF TABLES
1. Key Findings In 2025
2. Market Volume, In Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
3. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
4. Per Capita Consumption, by Country, 2022–2025
5. Production, In Physical Terms, By Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
6. Harvested Area, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
7. Yield, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
8. Imports, in Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
9. Imports, in Value Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
10. Import Prices, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
11. Exports, in Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
12. Exports, in Value Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
13. Export Prices, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
LIST OF FIGURES
1. Market Volume, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
2. Market Value: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
3. Consumption, by Country, 2025
4. Market Volume Forecast to 2035
5. Market Value Forecast to 2035
6. Market Size and Growth, by Product
7. Average Per Capita Consumption, by Product
8. Exports and Growth, by Product
9. Export Prices and Growth, by Product
10. Production Volume and Growth
11. Yield and Growth
12. Exports and Growth
13. Export Prices and Growth
14. Market Size and Growth
15. Per Capita Consumption
16. Imports and Growth
17. Import Prices
18. Production, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
19. Production, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
20. Harvested Area: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
21. Yield: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
22. Production, in Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
23. Harvested Area, by Country, 2025
24. Harvested Area, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
25. Yield, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
26. Imports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
27. Imports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
28. Imports, in Physical Terms, by Country, 2025
29. Imports, in Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
30. Imports, in Value Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
31. Import Prices, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
32. Exports, in Physical Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
33. Exports, in Value Terms: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
34. Exports, in Physical Terms, by Country, 2025
35. Exports, in Physical Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
36. Exports, in Value Terms, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)
37. Export Prices, by Country: Historical Data (2012–2025) and Forecast (2026–2035)

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