Sugar Market

The global sugar market is expected to see an upward consumption trend from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted increase in market volume and value. Key consuming countries include India, China, and Brazil, while top producers are Brazil, India, and China. Imports saw an average annual increase, with Indonesia and China being the main importers. Brazil remains the largest sugar exporter, with stable exports over the years. Price trends show fluctuations over the years, with notable growth in certain periods. Overall, the global sugar market is projected to grow steadily over the forecast period.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for sugar worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +2.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 204M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $141.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Sugar

In 2022, global consumption of sugar shrank modestly to 174M tons, approximately mirroring the previous year's figure. Over the period under review, consumption recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 with an increase of 3.2% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption reached the peak volume at 184M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

The global sugar market value totaled $103.5B in 2022, almost unchanged from the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption recorded a noticeable setback. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2017 when the market value increased by 6.9% against the previous year. Global consumption peaked at $128.5B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were India (24M tons), China (15M tons) and Brazil (12M tons), together comprising 29% of global consumption. The United States, Indonesia, Russia, Thailand, Mexico, Pakistan, Germany, Australia, France and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +4.6%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($9.6B), India ($8.7B) and the United States ($7.1B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 25% of the global market. Germany, Russia, Pakistan, Indonesia, Brazil, Mexico, Australia, Thailand, France and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 32%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +3.2%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced mixed trends in the market figures.

The countries with the highest levels of sugar per capita consumption in 2022 were Australia (165 kg per person), Thailand (92 kg per person) and France (59 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +3.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Sugar

In 2022, the amount of sugar produced worldwide shrank slightly to 174M tons, standing approx. at the previous year's figure. Overall, production saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 2.2%. Global production peaked at 181M tons in 2018; however, from 2019 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a relatively flat trend pattern of the harvested area and a relatively flat trend pattern in yield figures.

In value terms, sugar production dropped slightly to $95.8B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production saw a perceptible downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $136.9B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Brazil (36M tons), India (30M tons) and China (10M tons), with a combined 44% share of global production. Thailand, the United States, Mexico, Russia, Pakistan, Germany, Australia, France, Egypt and Guatemala lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 31%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Egypt (with a CAGR of +3.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Sugar

In 2022, approx. 39M tons of sugar were imported worldwide; increasing by 5.4% compared with the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 13%. Over the period under review, global imports reached the maximum in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in years to come.

In value terms, sugar imports skyrocketed to $20B in 2022. Overall, imports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global imports peaked at $20.4B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Indonesia (5.7M tons) and China (4.6M tons) represented the main importers of sugarin the world, together committing 26% of total imports. The United States (2.4M tons) held the next position in the ranking, followed by Bangladesh (2.2M tons), Algeria (2M tons) and South Korea (1.8M tons). All these countries together held near 21% share of total imports. The following importers - Malaysia (1.8M tons), Morocco (1.6M tons), Saudi Arabia (1.4M tons), Canada (1.3M tons), Ethiopia (1.1M tons), Iran (1.1M tons) and Japan (1.1M tons) - together made up 23% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Ethiopia (with a CAGR of +29.7%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest sugar importing markets worldwide were Indonesia ($2.8B), China ($2.2B) and the United States ($1.6B), together accounting for 33% of global imports. Bangladesh, South Korea, Malaysia, Morocco, Algeria, Canada, Japan, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia and Iran lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 34%.

Ethiopia, with a CAGR of +24.7%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average sugar import price amounted to $506 per ton, increasing by 14% against the previous year. Overall, the import price, however, recorded a mild slump. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 21% against the previous year. Global import price peaked at $608 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the United States ($686 per ton), while Saudi Arabia ($386 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United States (-0.2%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the import price figures.

Exports

World Exports of Sugar

In 2022, global exports of sugar totaled 40M tons, rising by 8.6% against the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when exports increased by 28%. As a result, the exports reached the peak of 40M tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, sugar exports surged to $17.1B in 2022. Overall, exports, however, continue to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The global exports peaked at $17.7B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Exports By Country

Brazil represented the main exporter of sugar in the world, with the volume of exports recording 24M tons, which was near 61% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by India (6.4M tons) and Thailand (3.5M tons), together comprising a 25% share of total exports. The following exporters - Guatemala (810K tons) and Mexico (732K tons) - each resulted at a 3.9% share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to sugar exports from Brazil stood at +2.4%. At the same time, Mexico (+25.4%) and India (+13.3%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Mexico emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +25.4% from 2012-2022. By contrast, Thailand (-2.9%) and Guatemala (-6.1%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+10 p.p.) and Mexico (+1.6 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Guatemala (-2.7 p.p.) and Thailand (-5.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, Brazil ($9.5B) remains the largest sugar supplier worldwide, comprising 56% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by India ($2.9B), with a 17% share of global exports. It was followed by Thailand, with a 9% share.

In Brazil, sugar exports remained relatively stable over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: India (+11.0% per year) and Thailand (-5.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average sugar export price amounted to $431 per ton, jumping by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, saw a pronounced curtailment. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 an increase of 18% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices reached the maximum at $551 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Mexico ($645 per ton), while Brazil ($394 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Mexico (-0.4%), while the other global leaders experienced a decline in the export price figures.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform