Rye Market

The global rye market is expected to see an upward consumption trend over the period from 2022 to 2030, with anticipated increases in both volume and value. Germany, Russia, and Poland are the highest consumers and producers of rye in 2022. The market is also influenced by trends in imports and exports, with Poland, Germany, and Russia being the key exporters in 2022. Overall, the global rye market is forecasted to experience moderate growth in the immediate term.

Market Forecast

Driven by rising demand for rye worldwide, the market is expected to start an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. The performance of the market is forecast to increase slightly, with an anticipated CAGR of +1.1% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 14M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +2.8% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $4.9B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Rye

In 2022, global consumption of rye was estimated at 13M tons, increasing by 2.3% against the previous year. Overall, consumption, however, saw a slight reduction. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the maximum volume at 16M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

The global rye market size rose rapidly to $4B in 2022, with an increase of 7.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a slight contraction. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $4.9B in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, consumption remained at a lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were Germany (3.2M tons), Russia (2M tons) and Poland (1.9M tons), together comprising 53% of global consumption. Belarus, Denmark, the United States, China, Spain, Canada, Turkey, Ukraine, the UK and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 33%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by the UK (with a CAGR of +18.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Germany ($852M) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by Poland ($419M). It was followed by Turkey.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Germany amounted to -3.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: Poland (-4.2% per year) and Turkey (-2.1% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of rye per capita consumption in 2022 were Denmark (123 kg per person), Belarus (80 kg per person) and Poland (51 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for the UK (with a CAGR of +17.9%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Rye

Global rye production reached 13M tons in 2022, standing approx. at 2021. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a slight setback. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 19% against the previous year. Global production peaked at 17M tons in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, production remained at a lower figure. The general negative trend in terms output was largely conditioned by a mild decrease of the harvested area and a slight increase in yield figures.

In value terms, rye production declined to $4.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. Overall, production continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the production volume increased by 30%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $5.1B, and then fell in the following year.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were Germany (3.1M tons), Poland (2.3M tons) and Russia (2.2M tons), with a combined 58% share of global production. Belarus, Denmark, Canada, China, Ukraine, the United States, Turkey, the UK and Argentina lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 29%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by the UK (with a CAGR of +22.1%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Yield

The global average rye yield rose remarkably to 3.3 tons per ha in 2022, growing by 7.7% compared with 2021. The yield figure increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 when the yield increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, the yield reached the peak level of 3.4 tons per ha. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the average rye yield remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Harvested Area

The global rye harvested area fell to 4M ha in 2022, waning by -6.5% compared with the previous year. In general, the harvested area recorded a noticeable contraction. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 8.4% against the previous year. As a result, the harvested area reached the peak level of 5.7M ha. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global rye harvested area remained at a somewhat lower figure.

Imports

World Imports of Rye

In 2022, after two years of growth, there was significant decline in overseas purchases of rye, when their volume decreased by -26.2% to 1.5M tons. Overall, imports showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 56% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 2.1M tons in 2021, and then dropped markedly in the following year.

In value terms, rye imports reached $531M in 2022. Over the period under review, imports, however, enjoyed slight growth. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when imports increased by 55%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to see gradual growth in the immediate term.

Imports By Country

Germany (355K tons), the United States (273K tons), Spain (241K tons), the Netherlands (174K tons) and Tanzania (158K tons) represented roughly 79% of total imports in 2022. The following importers - Latvia (40K tons), Denmark (38K tons) and Portugal (26K tons) - together made up 6.8% of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Denmark (with a CAGR of +7.2%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest rye importing markets worldwide were Germany ($118M), the United States ($92M) and Spain ($86M), with a combined 56% share of global imports. Tanzania, the Netherlands, Denmark, Latvia and Portugal lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

Denmark, with a CAGR of +6.9%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average rye import price amounted to $350 per ton, rising by 39% against the previous year. Overall, import price indicated a modest increase from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, rye import price increased by +65.2% against 2020 indices. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, major importing countries recorded the following prices: in Tanzania ($406 per ton) and Spain ($356 per ton), while Latvia ($283 per ton) and the Netherlands ($295 per ton) were amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Spain (+2.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Rye

In 2022, overseas shipments of rye decreased by -33.6% to 1.5M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year rising trend. In general, exports, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 when exports increased by 54% against the previous year. The global exports peaked at 2.2M tons in 2021, and then fell significantly in the following year.

In value terms, rye exports contracted to $481M in 2022. Over the period under review, exports, however, showed a slight increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2018 with an increase of 68%. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the maximum at $535M in 2021, and then declined in the following year.

Exports By Country

Poland (439K tons) and Germany (332K tons) were the key exporters of rye in 2022, recording near 29% and 22% of total exports, respectively. It was distantly followed by Russia (208K tons), Canada (165K tons) and Latvia (119K tons), together achieving a 33% share of total exports. The following exporters - Ukraine (53K tons) and France (33K tons) - together made up 5.8% of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Ukraine (with a CAGR of +17.6%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Poland ($142M), Germany ($100M) and Russia ($66M) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, together comprising 64% of global exports. Canada, Latvia, Ukraine and France lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 24%.

Ukraine, with a CAGR of +16.7%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, in terms of the main exporting countries over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average rye export price amounted to $323 per ton, rising by 36% against the previous year. Overall, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, the export price reached the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($377 per ton), while Ukraine ($220 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Russia (+2.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform