Preserved Mackerel Market

The global market for preserved mackerel is projected to experience steady growth in both volume and value terms from 2022 to 2030, with a forecasted increase in consumption volume to 1.9M tons and market value to $6.8B by the end of 2030. Consumption and production trends from 2012 to 2022 show consistent growth patterns, with China, the United States, and Japan being key players in both consumption and production. Import and export trends also indicate steady growth, with China leading in exports and imports showing a somewhat stable trend. Overall, the market for preserved mackerel is forecasted to continue its positive trajectory over the next eight years.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for mackerel (prepared or preserved) worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 1.9M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.5% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $6.8B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Mackerel (Prepared Or Preserved)

Global preserved mackerel consumption expanded significantly to 1.6M tons in 2022, picking up by 7.4% on the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 when the consumption volume increased by 9.7%. Over the period under review, global consumption hit record highs at 1.7M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

The global preserved mackerel market revenue amounted to $5.2B in 2022, with an increase of 7% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $5.4B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, consumption stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (252K tons), the United States (152K tons) and India (92K tons), together comprising 30% of global consumption. Japan, Indonesia, Pakistan, Germany, Russia, Norway, Nigeria, Brazil, the UK and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 25%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the leading consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +8.7%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest preserved mackerel markets worldwide were China ($636M), the United States ($468M) and Japan ($325M), together comprising 28% of the global market. Germany, the UK, India, Brazil, Indonesia, Russia, Mexico, Nigeria, Norway and Pakistan lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 23%.

Among the main consuming countries, Nigeria, with a CAGR of +10.8%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of preserved mackerel per capita consumption was registered in Norway (6,654 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Germany (531 kg per 1000 persons), the UK (491 kg per 1000 persons) and the United States (453 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of preserved mackerel was estimated at 209 kg per 1000 persons.

In Norway, preserved mackerel per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Germany (-1.5% per year) and the UK (+1.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Mackerel (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2022, global preserved mackerel production totaled 1.7M tons, growing by 6.5% compared with the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2016 when the production volume increased by 7.9%. Global production peaked at 1.8M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, preserved mackerel production stood at $5.1B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2016 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $5.4B in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Production By Country

China (343K tons) remains the largest preserved mackerel producing country worldwide, accounting for 21% of total volume. Moreover, preserved mackerel production in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, the United States (136K tons), threefold. India (92K tons) ranked third in terms of total production with a 5.6% share.

In China, preserved mackerel production increased at an average annual rate of +4.3% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+0.8% per year) and India (+2.4% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Mackerel (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2022, overseas purchases of mackerel (prepared or preserved) increased by 2.7% to 199K tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.6% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2019 when imports increased by 34% against the previous year. As a result, imports reached the peak of 233K tons. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

In value terms, preserved mackerel imports amounted to $721M in 2022. In general, imports recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2019 with an increase of 31%. As a result, imports reached the peak of $846M. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of global imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Japan (27K tons), followed by the United States (15K tons), Ghana (15K tons), Thailand (14K tons) and the UK (9K tons) were the key importers of mackerel (prepared or preserved), together achieving 40% of total imports. Haiti (7.6K tons), Jamaica (7.3K tons), France (6.5K tons), Italy (5.1K tons), Indonesia (5.1K tons), Spain (4.5K tons), Singapore (4.5K tons) and Malaysia (3.7K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of purchases, amongst the main importing countries, was attained by Haiti (with a CAGR of +28.2%), while imports for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Japan ($154M) constitutes the largest market for imported mackerel (prepared or preserved) worldwide, comprising 21% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($56M), with a 7.7% share of global imports. It was followed by Italy, with a 5.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in Japan stood at +5.5%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+3.2% per year) and Italy (-3.3% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average preserved mackerel import price stood at $3,618 per ton in 2022, dropping by -1.8% against the previous year. Overall, the import price recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the average import price increased by 6.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $3,980 per ton in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, import prices failed to regain momentum.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($8,282 per ton), while Haiti ($1,637 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Italy (+2.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Mackerel (Prepared Or Preserved)

In 2022, overseas shipments of mackerel (prepared or preserved) decreased by -2.9% to 214K tons, falling for the second consecutive year after two years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.3% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of 251K tons. From 2021 to 2022, the growth of the global exports remained at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, preserved mackerel exports shrank modestly to $763M in 2022. Overall, exports, however, saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2019 with an increase of 20% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $854M. From 2020 to 2022, the growth of the global exports failed to regain momentum.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (91K tons) represented the largest exporter of mackerel (prepared or preserved), creating 42% of total exports. It was distantly followed by Thailand (21K tons), Vietnam (19K tons) and Morocco (11K tons), together committing a 24% share of total exports. Chile (9.5K tons), Portugal (9.2K tons), Latvia (8.7K tons), Poland (5.2K tons), Denmark (4.9K tons) and the Netherlands (3.2K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

Exports from China increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, the Netherlands (+24.2%), Poland (+23.7%), Latvia (+9.7%), Vietnam (+8.3%) and Portugal (+1.2%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the Netherlands emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +24.2% from 2012-2022. Chile experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Morocco (-1.7%), Thailand (-4.5%) and Denmark (-8.2%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. China (+12 p.p.), Vietnam (+4.4 p.p.), Latvia (+2.2 p.p.) and Poland (+2.1 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while Morocco, Denmark and Thailand saw its share reduced by -1.7%, -3.9% and -8% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($219M) remains the largest preserved mackerel supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was held by Thailand ($80M), with a 10% share of global exports. It was followed by Vietnam, with a 9.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual rate of growth in terms of value in China totaled +2.8%. The remaining exporting countries recorded the following average annual rates of exports growth: Thailand (-1.2% per year) and Vietnam (+12.1% per year).

Export Prices By Country

The average preserved mackerel export price stood at $3,561 per ton in 2022, remaining stable against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2016 when the average export price increased by 16% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $3,924 per ton in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, the export prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Denmark ($6,269 per ton), while China ($2,411 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Latvia (+5.3%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform