Polyethylene Market

The article provides an in-depth analysis of the global primary polyethylene market with a specific gravity of over 0.94, forecasting steady growth in both volume and value over the next eight years. It covers trends in consumption, production, imports, and exports, highlighting key players and growth rates in major countries. The analysis also includes information on average prices, growth rates, and fluctuations in the market over the past decade.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for primary polyethylene with a specific gravity of over 0,94 worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.7% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 58M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $84.2B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Primary Polyethylene with a Specific Gravity of over 0,94

Global polyethylene consumption rose to 51M tons in 2022, picking up by 1.6% against the previous year's figure. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

The global polyethylene market size stood at $61.9B in 2022, approximately equating the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption saw a relatively flat trend pattern. Global consumption peaked at $66.6B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, consumption failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (9M tons), the United States (6M tons) and India (5.1M tons), with a combined 40% share of global consumption. Japan, Brazil, Nigeria, Mexico, Singapore, Russia, Germany, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Singapore (with a CAGR of +34.4%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest polyethylene markets worldwide were China ($10.4B), the United States ($6.8B) and India ($5B), together accounting for 36% of the global market. Japan, Mexico, Brazil, Nigeria, Germany, Turkey, Singapore, Russia, the United Arab Emirates and Egypt lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 26%.

In terms of the main consuming countries, Singapore, with a CAGR of +32.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of polyethylene per capita consumption was registered in Singapore (201 kg per person), followed by the United Arab Emirates (93 kg per person), the United States (18 kg per person) and Japan (16 kg per person), while the world average per capita consumption of polyethylene was estimated at 0.1 kg per person.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of the polyethylene per capita consumption in Singapore amounted to +33.2%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: the United Arab Emirates (+21.0% per year) and the United States (+0.8% per year).

Production

World Production of Primary Polyethylene with a Specific Gravity of over 0,94

Global polyethylene production amounted to 50M tons in 2022, leveling off at 2021. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained consistent, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 8.5% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the maximum volume at 50M tons in 2019; however, from 2020 to 2022, production stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, polyethylene production dropped slightly to $53.7B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 when the production volume increased by 12% against the previous year. Global production peaked at $67.1B in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, production failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were the United States (8.5M tons), Saudi Arabia (4.8M tons) and India (4M tons), together accounting for 35% of global production. China, Iran, the United Arab Emirates, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Thailand, Nigeria, Singapore and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the leading producing countries, was attained by Singapore (with a CAGR of +16.0%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Primary Polyethylene with a Specific Gravity of over 0,94

In 2022, approx. 26M tons of primary polyethylene with a specific gravity of over 0,94 were imported worldwide; stabilizing at the year before. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.4% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 10% against the previous year. Global imports peaked at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, imports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, polyethylene imports rose modestly to $36.6B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +2.8% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when imports increased by 33% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

China was the largest importing country with an import of about 6.3M tons, which accounted for 24% of total imports. The United States (1,143K tons), India (1,113K tons), Germany (1,064K tons), Turkey (957K tons), Belgium (878K tons), Mexico (826K tons), Italy (762K tons), Vietnam (624K tons), the UK (571K tons), Spain (524K tons), Egypt (517K tons) and Malaysia (495K tons) held a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to polyethylene imports into China stood at +4.5%. At the same time, Egypt (+13.4%), Vietnam (+9.1%), India (+8.7%), Malaysia (+8.4%), Belgium (+3.3%), Turkey (+3.0%), Spain (+2.6%), Germany (+2.3%), Mexico (+2.0%) and Italy (+1.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, Egypt emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +13.4% from 2012-2022. The UK and the United States experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. China (+2.5 p.p.) and India (+1.7 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global imports, while the shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($7B) constitutes the largest market for imported primary polyethylene with a specific gravity of over 0,94 worldwide, comprising 19% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by Germany ($1.8B), with a 4.9% share of global imports. It was followed by the United States, with a 4.6% share.

In China, polyethylene imports expanded at an average annual rate of +2.5% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining importing countries recorded the following average annual rates of imports growth: Germany (+2.1% per year) and the United States (+2.2% per year).

Import Prices By Country

The average polyethylene import price stood at $1,415 per ton in 2022, with an increase of 2.3% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price, however, showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when the average import price increased by 44% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices reached the peak figure at $1,601 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, import prices stood at a somewhat lower figure.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was the UK ($1,756 per ton), while China ($1,125 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Vietnam (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Primary Polyethylene with a Specific Gravity of over 0,94

In 2022, shipments abroad of primary polyethylene with a specific gravity of over 0,94 decreased by -1.8% to 25M tons, falling for the second year in a row after nine years of growth. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +2.7% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 with an increase of 11%. The global exports peaked at 28M tons in 2020; however, from 2021 to 2022, the exports stood at a somewhat lower figure.

In value terms, polyethylene exports fell to $33B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 31% against the previous year. As a result, the exports attained the peak of $34.2B, and then fell slightly in the following year.

Exports By Country

Saudi Arabia (4.3M tons) and the United States (3.7M tons) represented roughly 32% of total exports in 2022. Iran (2.2M tons) held an 8.7% share (based on physical terms) of total exports, which put it in second place, followed by the United Arab Emirates (7.1%), South Korea (6.3%) and Belgium (5.1%). Canada (1,009K tons), Germany (1,006K tons), Thailand (965K tons), Singapore (767K tons), Russia (564K tons), the Netherlands (486K tons) and Malaysia (444K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Russia (with a CAGR of +16.5%), while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($5.3B), Saudi Arabia ($4.2B) and Belgium ($2.2B) were the countries with the highest levels of exports in 2022, with a combined 35% share of global exports. The United Arab Emirates, Iran, South Korea, Germany, Canada, Thailand, Singapore, the Netherlands, Russia and Malaysia lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 41%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Russia, with a CAGR of +12.5%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average polyethylene export price amounted to $1,315 per ton, declining by -1.7% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 42% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1,531 per ton in 2014; however, from 2015 to 2022, the export prices remained at a lower figure.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Germany ($1,818 per ton), while Iran ($935 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+1.6%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform