Natural Polymers Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for natural and modified natural polymers in primary forms worldwide, with forecasts indicating substantial growth in market volume and value over the next eight years. Key insights include the expected acceleration of market performance with a projected CAGR of +4.9% for volume and +6.0% for value from 2022 to 2030, reaching 2.3M tons and $26.6B respectively. The analysis covers consumption, production, imports, and exports of natural polymers, highlighting key trends and growth rates across different countries and regions. Overall, the article provides a comprehensive overview of the global market for natural polymers and offers valuable insights for industry stakeholders.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for natural and modified natural polymers in primary forms worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight-year period. Market performance is forecast to accelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +4.9% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2.3M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +6.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $26.6B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Natural And Modified Natural Polymers In Primary Forms

In 2022, global consumption of natural and modified natural polymers in primary forms rose slightly to 1.6M tons, growing by 2.1% against the previous year. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. Global consumption peaked in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

The global natural polymers market size rose sharply to $16.8B in 2022, surging by 5.1% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). In general, consumption, however, recorded a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, consumption reached the peak level of $20.8B. From 2014 to 2022, the growth of the global market failed to regain momentum.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (248K tons), Italy (183K tons) and the United States (175K tons), together accounting for 39% of global consumption.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Italy (with a CAGR of +8.3%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, Brazil ($1.3B), the United States ($1.2B) and Spain ($1.1B) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, with a combined 21% share of the global market. China, the UK, India, Italy, Japan, Indonesia, Nigeria, France, Mexico and Canada lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 24%.

India, with a CAGR of +4.6%, recorded the highest rates of growth with regard to market size in terms of the main consuming countries over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In 2022, the highest levels of natural polymers per capita consumption was registered in Italy (3,099 kg per 1000 persons), followed by Canada (751 kg per 1000 persons), Spain (620 kg per 1000 persons) and the UK (547 kg per 1000 persons), while the world average per capita consumption of natural polymers was estimated at 197 kg per 1000 persons.

In Italy, natural polymers per capita consumption increased at an average annual rate of +8.4% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of per capita consumption growth: Canada (+1.8% per year) and Spain (-1.2% per year).

Production

World Production of Natural And Modified Natural Polymers In Primary Forms

Global natural polymers production was estimated at 1.5M tons in 2022, approximately mirroring the previous year. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.5% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 9.3%. Global production peaked at 1.5M tons in 2020; afterwards, it flattened through to 2022.

In value terms, natural polymers production stood at $15.2B in 2022 estimated in export price. Over the period under review, production, however, saw a slight downturn. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2013 when the production volume increased by 21%. As a result, production reached the peak level of $21.4B. From 2014 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (414K tons), Italy (214K tons) and the United States (188K tons), with a combined 54% share of global production.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Italy (with a CAGR of +9.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Natural And Modified Natural Polymers In Primary Forms

In 2022, overseas purchases of natural and modified natural polymers in primary forms increased by 16% to 391K tons, rising for the second year in a row after two years of decline. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.9% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. As a result, imports reached the peak and are likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, natural polymers imports surged to $4B in 2022. In general, total imports indicated a buoyant expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +7.1% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, imports increased by +86.4% against 2016 indices. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 20%. Over the period under review, global imports hit record highs in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Imports By Country

The United States (37K tons) and Japan (35K tons) represented the main importers of natural and modified natural polymers in primary forms in 2022, resulting at approx. 9.5% and 9% of total imports, respectively. It was followed by Russia (20K tons) and Germany (18K tons), together generating a 9.8% share of total imports. The Netherlands (16K tons), the United Arab Emirates (14K tons), Canada (12K tons), Spain (12K tons), France (12K tons), Brazil (11K tons), Mexico (10K tons), India (9.9K tons) and Italy (9.4K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Spain (with a CAGR of +12.8%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the United States ($447M), Japan ($297M) and Germany ($242M) appeared to be the countries with the highest levels of imports in 2022, together comprising 24% of global imports. The Netherlands, Italy, France, Spain, Russia, Canada, India, the United Arab Emirates, Brazil and Mexico lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 28%.

Among the main importing countries, the Netherlands, with a CAGR of +18.1%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of imports, over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average natural polymers import price amounted to $10,344 per ton, rising by 2.9% against the previous year. Over the last decade, it increased at an average annual rate of +2.1%. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 an increase of 12% against the previous year. Over the period under review, average import prices attained the peak figure in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major importing countries. In 2022, amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Italy ($14,818 per ton), while Russia ($6,012 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by India (+6.1%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Natural And Modified Natural Polymers In Primary Forms

In 2022, the amount of natural and modified natural polymers in primary forms exported worldwide rose rapidly to 348K tons, surging by 9.9% on 2021 figures. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +3.6% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2017 with an increase of 16% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the global exports reached the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

In value terms, natural polymers exports surged to $3.4B in 2022. In general, total exports indicated a notable expansion from 2012 to 2022: its value increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, exports increased by +78.3% against 2016 indices. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2021 when exports increased by 25% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

In 2022, China (174K tons) represented the key exporter of natural and modified natural polymers in primary forms, achieving 50% of total exports. The United States (50K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 14% share, followed by Italy (11%). France (14K tons), the Netherlands (14K tons), the United Arab Emirates (7.9K tons) and Germany (5.8K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to natural polymers exports from China stood at +5.8%. At the same time, the United Arab Emirates (+29.5%), Italy (+13.1%) and the Netherlands (+11.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, the United Arab Emirates emerged as the fastest-growing exporter exported in the world, with a CAGR of +29.5% from 2012-2022. France and Germany experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, the United States (-1.3%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of China (+9.5 p.p.), Italy (+6.7 p.p.), the United Arab Emirates (+2 p.p.) and the Netherlands (+2 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of France (-1.9 p.p.) and the United States (-8.8 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, China ($983M) remains the largest natural polymers supplier worldwide, comprising 29% of global exports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the United States ($358M), with an 11% share of global exports. It was followed by France, with a 9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of value in China stood at +9.2%. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (-1.3% per year) and France (+5.7% per year).

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average natural polymers export price amounted to $9,644 per ton, growing by 7.3% against the previous year. Overall, the export price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2021 when the average export price increased by 14% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the average export prices attained the maximum in 2022 and is likely to see steady growth in the near future.

Prices varied noticeably by country of origin: amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was France ($21,705 per ton), while Italy ($4,912 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by the United Arab Emirates (+7.9%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform