Iron and Non-Alloy Steel in Ingot Market

The article delves into the growing demand for iron and non-alloy steel in ingots worldwide, with projections indicating an upward consumption trend. Market performance is expected to accelerate with a CAGR of +2.3% for consumption and +4.0% for market value until 2030. China leads in both consumption and production, with significant growth rates in volume and value over the years. The article also covers import and export trends, highlighting key players such as India, Iran, and Kazakhstan in the global market for iron and non-alloy steel in ingots.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for iron and non-alloy steel in ingots worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to decelerate, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +2.3% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 2,160M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +4.0% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $5,971.1B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Iron and Non-Alloy Steel in Ingots

In 2022, consumption of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots decreased by -3.2% to 1,801M tons for the first time since 2017, thus ending a four-year rising trend. Over the period under review, consumption, however, continues to indicate significant growth. Global consumption peaked at 1,861M tons in 2021, and then dropped modestly in the following year.

The value of the market for iron and non-alloy steel in ingots worldwide shrank to $4,361.4B in 2022, declining by -5.4% against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). Overall, consumption, however, continues to indicate a significant increase. Over the period under review, the global market reached the peak level at $4,608.4B in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

Consumption By Country

China (1,020M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of consumption of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots, comprising approx. 57% of total volume. Moreover, consumption of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest consumer, India (125M tons), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was held by Japan (89M tons), with a 4.9% share.

From 2012 to 2022, the average annual growth rate of volume in China stood at +178.9%. The remaining consuming countries recorded the following average annual rates of consumption growth: India (+87.1% per year) and Japan (+135.3% per year).

In value terms, China ($1,234B) led the market, alone. The second position in the ranking was held by the United States ($231.3B). It was followed by Japan.

In China, the market of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots increased at an average annual rate of +183.4% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the United States (+113.0% per year) and Japan (+136.6% per year).

The countries with the highest levels of iron and non-alloy steel in ingot per capita consumption in 2022 were China (719 kg per person), Japan (714 kg per person) and Russia (502 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Turkey (with a CAGR of +288.9%), while ingots for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Iron and Non-Alloy Steel in Ingots

In 2022, production of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots decreased by -3.2% to 1,801M tons for the first time since 2011, thus ending a ten-year rising trend. Over the period under review, production, however, recorded a significant increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the production volume increased by 38,800%. Global production peaked at 1,860M tons in 2021, and then fell in the following year.

In value terms, production of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots declined to $5,165.3B in 2022 estimated in export price. In general, production, however, recorded a significant expansion. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 with an increase of 32,056%. Over the period under review, global production of hit record highs at $5,387.2B in 2021, and then shrank slightly in the following year.

Production By Country

China (1,020M tons) constituted the country with the largest volume of production of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots, accounting for 57% of total volume. Moreover, production of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots in China exceeded the figures recorded by the second-largest producer, India (125M tons), eightfold. The third position in this ranking was taken by Japan (89M tons), with a 4.9% share.

In China, production of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots expanded at an average annual rate of +214.7% over the period from 2012-2022. The remaining producing countries recorded the following average annual rates of production growth: India (+104.3% per year) and Japan (+134.6% per year).

Imports

World Imports of Iron and Non-Alloy Steel in Ingots

In 2022, purchases abroad of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots was finally on the rise to reach 1.2M tons for the first time since 2019, thus ending a two-year declining trend. Overall, imports, however, continue to indicate a pronounced contraction. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2015 when imports increased by 20% against the previous year. As a result, imports attained the peak of 1.7M tons. From 2016 to 2022, the growth of global imports of failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, imports of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots surged to $992M in 2022. In general, imports, however, continue to indicate a mild reduction. Global imports peaked at $1.1B in 2012; however, from 2013 to 2022, imports remained at a lower figure.

Imports By Country

In 2022, Oman (370K tons), distantly followed by Italy (228K tons), Guatemala (125K tons), El Salvador (74K tons), Jordan (63K tons) and Bangladesh (62K tons) represented the largest importers of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots, together constituting 77% of total imports. The following importers - Spain (38K tons) and Saudi Arabia (37K tons) - each resulted at a 6.3% share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, the biggest increases were recorded for Oman (with a CAGR of +124.9%), while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest iron and non-alloy steel in ingot importing markets worldwide were Oman ($197M), Italy ($189M) and Guatemala ($95M), together accounting for 48% of global imports.

Oman, with a CAGR of +112.8%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of imports, in terms of the main importing countries over the period under review, while purchases for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for iron and non-alloy steel in ingots amounted to $826 per ton, growing by 17% against the previous year. Over the period under review, import price indicated a mild expansion from 2012 to 2022: its price increased at an average annual rate of +1.4% over the last decade. The trend pattern, however, indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. Based on 2022 figures, import price for iron and non-alloy steel in ingots increased by +58.3% against 2019 indices. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when the average import price increased by 31%. Over the period under review, average import prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was Jordan ($1,218 per ton), while Bangladesh ($444 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Jordan (+6.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Iron and Non-Alloy Steel in Ingots

In 2022, overseas shipments of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots increased by 32% to 634K tons, rising for the second consecutive year after three years of decline. In general, exports, however, continue to indicate a abrupt curtailment. Over the period under review, the global exports of reached the peak figure at 1.4M tons in 2015; however, from 2016 to 2022, the exports failed to regain momentum.

In value terms, exports of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots surged to $742M in 2022. Overall, exports, however, recorded a slight curtailment. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 39%. The global exports peaked at $873M in 2013; however, from 2014 to 2022, the exports remained at a lower figure.

Exports By Country

India represented the key exporter of iron and non-alloy steel in ingots in the world, with the volume of exports finishing at 234K tons, which was approx. 37% of total exports in 2022. Iran (76K tons) ranks second in terms of the total exports with a 12% share, followed by Sweden (8.7%), Kazakhstan (5.9%), France (5.8%) and Kuwait (5.6%). The Netherlands (25K tons), Italy (21K tons), Poland (17K tons), Germany (15K tons), the United States (11K tons), Venezuela (11K tons) and the UK (10K tons) held a relatively small share of total exports.

India was also the fastest-growing in terms of the iron and non-alloy steel in ingots exports, with a CAGR of +58.8% from 2012 to 2022. At the same time, Kazakhstan (+14.3%), France (+11.9%), Germany (+5.7%) and Sweden (+4.4%) displayed positive paces of growth. Italy experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. By contrast, Poland (-3.4%), Kuwait (-4.0%), the UK (-4.9%), the Netherlands (-10.0%), Venezuela (-13.1%), Iran (-14.0%) and the United States (-19.9%) illustrated a downward trend over the same period. While the share of India (+37 p.p.), Sweden (+5.7 p.p.), Kazakhstan (+5.1 p.p.), France (+4.8 p.p.) and Germany (+1.7 p.p.) increased significantly in terms of the global exports from 2012-2022, the share of Venezuela (-1.9 p.p.), the Netherlands (-2.1 p.p.), the United States (-6.7 p.p.) and Iran (-16.9 p.p.) displayed negative dynamics. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the largest iron and non-alloy steel in ingot supplying countries worldwide were Kazakhstan ($212M), India ($178M) and Iran ($84M), with a combined 64% share of global exports.

Among the main exporting countries, India, with a CAGR of +52.4%, saw the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

The average export price for iron and non-alloy steel in ingots stood at $1,169 per ton in 2022, falling by -3.9% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price, however, showed a strong increase. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 when the average export price increased by 42% against the previous year. The global export price peaked at $1,217 per ton in 2021, and then reduced slightly in the following year.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Kazakhstan ($5,618 per ton), while Venezuela ($273 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Kazakhstan (+26.2%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform