Gingerbread, Sweet Biscuit and Waffle Market

The article discusses the increasing demand for gingerbread, sweet biscuits, and waffles worldwide, with forecasts showing a positive consumption trend. Market performance is expected to grow steadily with a forecasted CAGR of +1.2% for volume and +3.2% for value by 2030. The top consuming countries include China, the United States, and India, while the major exporters are Mexico, Germany, and Canada. With a focus on sweet biscuits as the main product, the analysis also covers production, import, and export trends, offering insights into pricing and growth rates across different markets.

Market Forecast

Driven by increasing demand for gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles worldwide, the market is expected to continue an upward consumption trend over the next eight years. Market performance is forecast to retain its current trend pattern, expanding with an anticipated CAGR of +1.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market volume to 49M tons by the end of 2030.

In value terms, the market is forecast to increase with an anticipated CAGR of +3.2% for the period from 2022 to 2030, which is projected to bring the market value to $173.3B (in nominal prices) by the end of 2030.

Consumption

World Consumption of Gingerbread, Sweet Biscuits and Waffles

In 2022, consumption of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles decreased by -0.9% to 44M tons for the first time since 2014, thus ending a seven-year rising trend. The total consumption volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% over the period from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2020 when the consumption volume increased by 7% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global consumption attained the peak volume at 45M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

The value of the market for gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles worldwide dropped slightly to $135.1B in 2022, remaining constant against the previous year. This figure reflects the total revenues of producers and importers (excluding logistics costs, retail marketing costs, and retailers' margins, which will be included in the final consumer price). The market value increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with somewhat noticeable fluctuations being observed throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2018 when the market value increased by 4.5%. Over the period under review, the global market hit record highs at $136.6B in 2021, and then contracted in the following year.

Consumption By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of consumption in 2022 were China (7.9M tons), the United States (4.7M tons) and India (2.8M tons), together accounting for 35% of global consumption. Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, Japan, Nigeria, Pakistan, Mexico and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 22%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the key consuming countries, was attained by Nigeria (with a CAGR of +5.0%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, China ($22.6B), the United States ($15.6B) and Japan ($15.5B) constituted the countries with the highest levels of market value in 2022, together accounting for 40% of the global market.

In terms of the main consuming countries, China, with a CAGR of +4.5%, saw the highest growth rate of market size over the period under review, while market for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

The countries with the highest levels of gingerbread, sweet biscuit and waffle per capita consumption in 2022 were the United States (14 kg per person), Russia (11 kg per person) and Japan (10 kg per person).

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of consumption, amongst the main consuming countries, was attained by Russia (with a CAGR of +3.1%), while consumption for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Production

World Production of Gingerbread, Sweet Biscuits and Waffles

In 2022, production of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles decreased by -0.5% to 44M tons for the first time since 2016, thus ending a five-year rising trend. The total output volume increased at an average annual rate of +1.8% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern remained relatively stable, with only minor fluctuations being observed in certain years. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2020 with an increase of 6.8% against the previous year. Over the period under review, global production attained the peak volume at 45M tons in 2021, and then dropped in the following year.

In value terms, gingerbread, sweet biscuit and waffle production shrank slightly to $137.5B in 2022 estimated in export price. The total output value increased at an average annual rate of +2.1% from 2012 to 2022; the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth was the most pronounced in 2019 when the production volume increased by 14% against the previous year. As a result, production reached the peak level of $171.6B. From 2020 to 2022, global production growth failed to regain momentum.

Production By Country

The countries with the highest volumes of production in 2022 were China (7.8M tons), the United States (4M tons) and India (3M tons), with a combined 33% share of global production. Indonesia, Russia, Brazil, Japan, Mexico, Nigeria, Pakistan, Turkey, Italy and Bangladesh lagged somewhat behind, together accounting for a further 27%.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of production, amongst the main producing countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +5.2%), while production for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Imports

World Imports of Gingerbread, Sweet Biscuits and Waffles

For the seventh consecutive year, the global market recorded growth in purchases abroad of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles, which increased by 0.4% to 5M tons in 2022. The total import volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded in certain years. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 with an increase of 8.5%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the peak figure in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

In value terms, gingerbread, sweet biscuit and waffle imports expanded sharply to $16B in 2022. The total import value increased at an average annual rate of +4.6% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2021 when imports increased by 13%. Over the period under review, global imports attained the maximum in 2022 and are expected to retain growth in years to come.

Imports By Country

In 2022, the United States (846K tons), distantly followed by Germany (259K tons), the UK (258K tons) and France (254K tons) represented the major importers of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles, together committing 33% of total imports. Belgium (144K tons), the Netherlands (131K tons), Iraq (127K tons), China (121K tons), Canada (108K tons), Italy (97K tons), Spain (83K tons), Romania (79K tons) and Poland (75K tons) took a relatively small share of total imports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to gingerbread, sweet biscuit and waffle imports into the United States stood at +8.0%. At the same time, China (+12.4%), Romania (+9.1%), the UK (+6.9%), Poland (+5.5%), Germany (+4.2%), Spain (+3.7%), Iraq (+3.6%), Italy (+3.4%), Canada (+3.3%) and Belgium (+2.5%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, China emerged as the fastest-growing importer imported in the world, with a CAGR of +12.4% from 2012-2022. France and the Netherlands experienced a relatively flat trend pattern. From 2012 to 2022, the share of the United States increased by +5.1 percentage points. The shares of the other countries remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, the United States ($3B) constitutes the largest market for imported gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles worldwide, comprising 19% of global imports. The second position in the ranking was taken by the UK ($980M), with a 6.1% share of global imports. It was followed by Germany, with a 5.8% share.

In the United States, gingerbread, sweet biscuit and waffle imports increased at an average annual rate of +8.2% over the period from 2012-2022. In the other countries, the average annual rates were as follows: the UK (+6.4% per year) and Germany (+3.9% per year).

Imports By Type

Sweet biscuits represented the main imported product with an import of about 3.4M tons, which accounted for 70% of total imports. It was distantly followed by waffles and wafers (1.3M tons), mixing up a 27% share of total imports. Gingerbread (122K tons) followed a long way behind the leaders.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to sweet biscuits imports of stood at +3.4%. At the same time, waffles and wafers (+6.2%) and gingerbread (+5.1%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, waffles and wafers emerged as the fastest-growing type imported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.2% from 2012-2022. From 2012 to 2022, the share of waffles and wafers increased by +4.8 percentage points. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, sweet biscuits ($10B), waffles and wafers ($5.6B) and gingerbread ($470M) were the products with the highest levels of imports in 2022.

Gingerbread, with a CAGR of +7.1%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of imports, in terms of the main imported products over the period under review, while purchases for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Type

The average import price for gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles stood at $3,236 per ton in 2022, surging by 7.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the import price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major imported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was waffles and wafers ($4,146 per ton), while the price for sweet biscuits ($2,893 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by gingerbread (+2.0%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Import Prices By Country

In 2022, the average import price for gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles amounted to $3,236 per ton, with an increase of 7.1% against the previous year. In general, the import price continues to indicate a relatively flat trend pattern. As a result, import price attained the peak level and is likely to continue growth in the immediate term.

Prices varied noticeably by country of destination: amid the top importers, the country with the highest price was China ($4,072 per ton), while Iraq ($2,562 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Romania (+3.0%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports

World Exports of Gingerbread, Sweet Biscuits and Waffles

In 2022, the amount of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles exported worldwide expanded slightly to 5M tons, growing by 4.1% compared with the previous year's figure. The total export volume increased at an average annual rate of +4.2% over the period from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 when exports increased by 12% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to see steady growth in years to come.

In value terms, gingerbread, sweet biscuit and waffle exports reached $16.4B in 2022. The total export value increased at an average annual rate of +4.7% from 2012 to 2022; however, the trend pattern indicated some noticeable fluctuations being recorded throughout the analyzed period. The most prominent rate of growth was recorded in 2021 with an increase of 15% against the previous year. The global exports peaked in 2022 and are likely to continue growth in the near future.

Exports By Country

The shipments of the twelve major exporters of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles, namely Mexico, Germany, Turkey, the Netherlands, Indonesia, Poland, Belgium, India, Italy, Canada, Spain and Russia, represented more than two-thirds of total export. The Czech Republic (130K tons) held a little share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of shipments, amongst the key exporting countries, was attained by Indonesia (with a CAGR of +14.8%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

In value terms, the largest gingerbread, sweet biscuit and waffle supplying countries worldwide were Germany ($1.5B), Poland ($1.3B) and Canada ($1.2B), together comprising 24% of global exports. Mexico, Italy, the Netherlands, Belgium, Turkey, Indonesia, Spain, the Czech Republic, India and Russia lagged somewhat behind, together comprising a further 45%.

In terms of the main exporting countries, Indonesia, with a CAGR of +13.6%, recorded the highest growth rate of the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Exports By Type

Sweet biscuits was the main type of gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles in the world, with the volume of exports reaching 3.5M tons, which was near 70% of total exports in 2022. It was distantly followed by waffles and wafers (1.4M tons), creating a 28% share of total exports. Gingerbread (113K tons) took a minor share of total exports.

From 2012 to 2022, average annual rates of growth with regard to sweet biscuits exports of stood at +3.6%. At the same time, waffles and wafers (+6.0%) and gingerbread (+4.0%) displayed positive paces of growth. Moreover, waffles and wafers emerged as the fastest-growing type exported in the world, with a CAGR of +6.0% from 2012-2022. Waffles and wafers (+4.5 p.p.) significantly strengthened its position in terms of the global exports, while sweet biscuits saw its share reduced by -4.4% from 2012 to 2022, respectively. The shares of the other products remained relatively stable throughout the analyzed period.

In value terms, sweet biscuits ($10.2B), waffles and wafers ($5.8B) and gingerbread ($438M) were the products with the highest levels of exports in 2022.

In terms of the main exported products, waffles and wafers, with a CAGR of +7.0%, saw the highest rates of growth with regard to the value of exports, over the period under review, while shipments for the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Type

In 2022, the average export price for gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles amounted to $3,266 per ton, growing by 4.1% against the previous year. In general, the export price showed a relatively flat trend pattern. The pace of growth appeared the most rapid in 2013 an increase of 4.2%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in the near future.

Average prices varied somewhat amongst the major exported products. In 2022, the product with the highest price was waffles and wafers ($4,116 per ton), while the average price for exports of sweet biscuits ($2,909 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by gingerbread (+2.1%), while the other products experienced more modest paces of growth.

Export Prices By Country

In 2022, the average export price for gingerbread, sweet biscuits and waffles amounted to $3,266 per ton, surging by 4.1% against the previous year. Over the period under review, the export price saw a relatively flat trend pattern. The growth pace was the most rapid in 2013 when the average export price increased by 4.2%. Over the period under review, the average export prices hit record highs in 2022 and is expected to retain growth in years to come.

There were significant differences in the average prices amongst the major exporting countries. In 2022, amid the top suppliers, the country with the highest price was Canada ($5,816 per ton), while India ($1,302 per ton) was amongst the lowest.

From 2012 to 2022, the most notable rate of growth in terms of prices was attained by Canada (+3.5%), while the other global leaders experienced more modest paces of growth.

Source: IndexBox Market Intelligence Platform